December 08, 2006
Probabilistic Model of Range, Centerfielders, 2006
Here's the outs table for centerfielders:
Probabilistic Model of Range, Centerfielders. Model is Based on 2006 Data Only. Minimum 1000 Balls in Play. Uses Distance for Fly Balls.
| Player | InPlay | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | Out Difference | Out Ratio |
|
|---|
| Shane Victorino | 1691 | 161 | 142.02 | 18.98 | 113.37 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 1017 | 114 | 105.32 | 8.68 | 108.24 |
| Carlos Beltran | 3517 | 357 | 339.18 | 17.82 | 105.25 |
| Brian N Anderson | 2996 | 305 | 293.22 | 11.78 | 104.02 |
| Corey Patterson | 3360 | 345 | 331.93 | 13.07 | 103.94 |
| Johnny Damon | 3378 | 306 | 294.61 | 11.39 | 103.86 |
| Randy Winn | 1366 | 137 | 131.98 | 5.02 | 103.81 |
| Ryan Freel | 1211 | 127 | 122.76 | 4.24 | 103.45 |
| Marlon Byrd | 1272 | 125 | 120.87 | 4.13 | 103.41 |
| Coco Crisp | 2814 | 246 | 238.19 | 7.81 | 103.28 |
| Joey R Gathright | 3272 | 341 | 330.21 | 10.79 | 103.27 |
| Brady Clark | 2748 | 250 | 243.70 | 6.30 | 102.58 |
| Willy Taveras | 3304 | 335 | 327.09 | 7.91 | 102.42 |
| Curtis Granderson | 4014 | 385 | 376.01 | 8.99 | 102.39 |
| Andruw Jones | 4109 | 377 | 369.40 | 7.60 | 102.06 |
| Rocco Baldelli | 2368 | 228 | 223.60 | 4.40 | 101.97 |
| Aaron Rowand | 2742 | 251 | 247.27 | 3.73 | 101.51 |
| Jim Edmonds | 2471 | 223 | 219.79 | 3.21 | 101.46 |
| Mike Cameron | 3723 | 367 | 362.92 | 4.08 | 101.12 |
| Eric Byrnes | 3208 | 270 | 267.57 | 2.43 | 100.91 |
| Juan Pierre | 4103 | 380 | 377.29 | 2.71 | 100.72 |
| Alfredo Amezaga | 1580 | 155 | 153.92 | 1.08 | 100.70 |
| Gary Matthews Jr. | 3909 | 333 | 332.10 | 0.90 | 100.27 |
| Chone Figgins | 2455 | 242 | 241.43 | 0.57 | 100.24 |
| Choo Freeman | 1021 | 101 | 101.08 | -0.08 | 99.92 |
| Reggie D Abercrombie | 1833 | 172 | 172.25 | -0.25 | 99.85 |
| Vernon Wells | 3918 | 332 | 332.89 | -0.89 | 99.73 |
| Torii Hunter | 3715 | 343 | 344.56 | -1.56 | 99.55 |
| Chris Duffy | 2053 | 166 | 166.80 | -0.80 | 99.52 |
| Nate McLouth | 1072 | 84 | 84.56 | -0.56 | 99.34 |
| Grady Sizemore | 4455 | 409 | 412.99 | -3.99 | 99.03 |
| So Taguchi | 1095 | 90 | 91.04 | -1.04 | 98.86 |
| Steve Finley | 3013 | 287 | 290.77 | -3.77 | 98.70 |
| Jay Payton | 1196 | 104 | 105.67 | -1.67 | 98.42 |
| Mark Kotsay | 3261 | 281 | 288.40 | -7.40 | 97.43 |
| Ryan M Church | 1172 | 122 | 127.23 | -5.23 | 95.89 |
| David DeJesus | 1561 | 149 | 156.42 | -7.42 | 95.26 |
| Jeremy T Reed | 1535 | 129 | 135.86 | -6.86 | 94.95 |
| Rob Mackowiak | 1415 | 119 | 126.37 | -7.37 | 94.17 |
| Cory Sullivan | 2666 | 225 | 239.39 | -14.39 | 93.99 |
| Jose A Bautista | 1323 | 114 | 121.31 | -7.31 | 93.98 |
| Kenny Lofton | 2999 | 241 | 257.05 | -16.05 | 93.76 |
| Ken Griffey Jr. | 2753 | 229 | 250.78 | -21.78 | 91.32 |
rowand and victorino will look nice together for the phils - if rowand is still on the team
David - I don't quite get how Sizemore can be the only centerfielder over 400 outs, but rank so low - especially given that every fifth game is started by Westbrook, who, when he's on, has a ridiculous ground ball to fly ball ratio. Probably I could figure it out by crunching numbers, but could you explain it in a sentence or two? Thanks.
re: victorino & rowand
Well, based on the data, victorino should play center and rowand should play right--but the phillies depth chart has it the other way around.
Clearly they're not readin the sabrmetric data.
They'd be best off playing Victorino full time in CF, and maybe trading Rowand and one of their surplus starters, like Jon Lieber, for a corner outfielder and a relief pitcher. Milwaukee, Texas and Boston all have relief pitchers and corner outfielders available--Willy mo Pena among others.
--art kyriazis, philly
