Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
November 11, 2007
Probabilistic Model of Range, Centerfielders, 2007

Here are the team rankings for centerfielders:

Team Centerfielder PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Mariners 4535 452 423.84 0.100 0.093 106.64
Red Sox 4226 481 452.99 0.114 0.107 106.18
Tigers 4486 468 445.78 0.104 0.099 104.98
Cubs 4177 414 400.21 0.099 0.096 103.45
Mets 4362 464 449.88 0.106 0.103 103.14
Braves 4404 431 421.41 0.098 0.096 102.28
Dodgers 4310 379 371.16 0.088 0.086 102.11
Rockies 4599 414 407.81 0.090 0.089 101.52
Padres 4476 409 404.18 0.091 0.090 101.19
Cardinals 4587 417 412.78 0.091 0.090 101.02
Reds 4533 455 451.03 0.100 0.100 100.88
Giants 4467 438 437.08 0.098 0.098 100.21
Nationals 4591 486 485.40 0.106 0.106 100.12
Royals 4528 424 425.45 0.094 0.094 99.66
Yankees 4511 468 470.38 0.104 0.104 99.49
Phillies 4505 418 421.10 0.093 0.093 99.26
Twins 4384 415 418.19 0.095 0.095 99.24
White Sox 4545 415 418.55 0.091 0.092 99.15
Angels 4325 441 445.14 0.102 0.103 99.07
Marlins 4491 453 458.41 0.101 0.102 98.82
Astros 4530 433 439.56 0.096 0.097 98.51
Blue Jays 4349 366 372.05 0.084 0.086 98.37
Pirates 4608 448 456.67 0.097 0.099 98.10
Diamondbacks 4351 406 414.42 0.093 0.095 97.97
Indians 4548 413 422.64 0.091 0.093 97.72
Rangers 4518 388 399.38 0.086 0.088 97.15
Athletics 4499 398 410.38 0.088 0.091 96.98
Orioles 4403 409 423.66 0.093 0.096 96.54
Devil Rays 4378 419 444.79 0.096 0.102 94.20
Brewers 4392 410 437.27 0.093 0.100 93.76

The Mariners come out on top of the Red Sox overall, but Boston has the better individual fielder:

Individual Centerfielder PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Coco Crisp 3560 408 377.29 0.115 0.106 108.14
Ichiro Suzuki 4233 424 394.49 0.100 0.093 107.48
Felix Pie 1169 120 112.75 0.103 0.096 106.43
Curtis Granderson 3995 424 402.22 0.106 0.101 105.42
Jacque Jones 1911 195 187.25 0.102 0.098 104.14
Darin Erstad 1117 105 101.18 0.094 0.091 103.77
Willy Taveras 2274 212 204.80 0.093 0.090 103.52
So Taguchi 1190 118 114.17 0.099 0.096 103.35
Ryan Church 1024 118 114.35 0.115 0.112 103.19
Andruw Jones 4080 396 385.38 0.097 0.094 102.76
Juan Pierre 4215 366 356.47 0.087 0.085 102.67
Josh Hamilton 1702 168 163.71 0.099 0.096 102.62
Carlos Beltran 3733 389 380.89 0.104 0.102 102.13
Johnny Damon 1211 121 118.84 0.100 0.098 101.82
Gary Matthews Jr. 3462 362 356.66 0.105 0.103 101.50
Mike Cameron 4016 365 360.75 0.091 0.090 101.18
Nook Logan 2398 248 245.18 0.103 0.102 101.15
Norris Hopper 1280 133 132.11 0.104 0.103 100.67
Dave Roberts 2334 224 222.68 0.096 0.095 100.59
Torii Hunter 4034 389 389.12 0.096 0.096 99.97
David DeJesus 4256 400 400.98 0.094 0.094 99.76
Alfredo Amezaga 2005 208 208.88 0.104 0.104 99.58
Jim Edmonds 2688 244 245.68 0.091 0.091 99.32
Aaron Rowand 4243 392 394.89 0.092 0.093 99.27
Hunter Pence 2636 260 261.99 0.099 0.099 99.24
Chris Duffy 1693 172 174.17 0.102 0.103 98.75
Melky Cabrera 3297 347 351.54 0.105 0.107 98.71
Rajai Davis 1162 124 125.75 0.107 0.108 98.60
Ryan Freel 1419 136 138.16 0.096 0.097 98.44
Vernon Wells 3813 321 326.31 0.084 0.086 98.37
Grady Sizemore 4383 399 407.44 0.091 0.093 97.93
Jerry Owens 2294 208 212.80 0.091 0.093 97.75
Chris Young 3824 354 364.20 0.093 0.095 97.20
B.J. Upton 2014 204 210.16 0.101 0.104 97.07
Mark Kotsay 1492 141 145.40 0.095 0.097 96.98
Nick Swisher 1515 139 144.94 0.092 0.096 95.90
Marlon Byrd 1541 114 119.68 0.074 0.078 95.25
Nate McLouth 1583 142 150.82 0.090 0.095 94.15
Kenny Lofton 2219 188 199.69 0.085 0.090 94.15
Corey Patterson 3225 281 298.69 0.087 0.093 94.08
Bill Hall 3159 295 314.62 0.093 0.100 93.76
Elijah Dukes 1010 82 92.28 0.081 0.091 88.86

Note to that the shift of Bill Hall to center worked neither offensively nor defensively. Andruw Jones may not be as good as he once was, but he can still go get the ball.


Posted by David Pinto at 11:55 AM | Defense • | Probabilistic Model of Range | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Finally, some objective proof that Corey Patterson is also a subpar defender as well as a criminally incompetent hitter. Please, Os, please don't bring him b ack.

Posted by: LastBestAngryMan at November 11, 2007 02:01 PM

So tell me again, how did Grady Sizemore win the Gold Glove?

Oh yeah, that's right... the Gold Glove has nothing to do with actual fielding prowess.

Not to pick on Sizemore; there have been far worse GG winners, and any team would be happy to have him as their centerfielder. But Coco Crisp wuz robbed.

Posted by: jvwalt at November 11, 2007 02:31 PM

But Corey's PMR was very good in 05 and 06....

could be just a bad year?

Posted by: Boomer at November 11, 2007 03:07 PM

Hall was fine after the first couple months, but he had to learn on the job, and predictably struggled early.

Posted by: Al at November 11, 2007 03:14 PM

Bill James' observation earlier this year that Coco was making a lot of great plays seems to be supported by the data.

Posted by: Mike Humphreys at November 11, 2007 09:37 PM

Looking over this list again, I realize that it's not that Grady (or any other CF) sucks, it's just that we've got an awful lot of really good centerfielders. At any other position (except maybe SS), the guys on the bottom of such a list are truly bad with the glove -- but not in this case. The bad outfielders are quickly removed from center, and dispatched to a corner spot or to DH. I mean, it's possible that guys like Vernon Wells and Melky Cabrera are overrated -- but they aren't bad.

One other note: considering the Red Sox' pending decision on CF, it'd be really interesting to see Jacoby Ellsbury's minor-league PMR. And you can bet dollars to donuts that Sox management has those numbers.

Posted by: jvwalt at November 12, 2007 12:18 AM

Was there any kind of trend in improvement to Hall's season?

Posted by: Jason at November 12, 2007 07:23 AM

Didn't the Brewers make a mistake moving Hall to CF? Didn't he have more value as a SS and as a trading chip? Whether the position switch played a role in his offensive decline is probably arguable. Not sure whether he could return to SS after a year in the OF but I think I would explore the possibility.
bill

Posted by: Bill McKinley at November 12, 2007 05:15 PM

It is surprising to see that Damon was as high on the list as he was...oh wait a minute the list does not take into consideration how many bounces you need to get the ball back into 2nd base. Seriously though, Mike Cameron and Torii Hunter were lower than I thought they would be. Ichiro was right were you would expect and Coco got screwed out of a GG.

Posted by: emains at November 13, 2007 12:58 AM

Who the heck is Felix Pie? Pie finished third among centerfielders albeit with not enough playing time to qualify for the title. I saw the Cubs play three games at the end of May on the west coast. Pie did not play in any of those games. I vacationed in Nepal and India for 10 weeks over the summer. That is how I missed Felix Pie. Of course his .215 batting average is nowheres to be found among the leaders. My grandfather Othmar used to have a Labrador retriever named Pie that he went duck hunting with near Marysville and Yuba City near the Buttes.

Posted by: yetijuice at November 13, 2007 06:32 PM

I was very surprised by the Orioles' numbers. Corey Patterson was near the bottom for CF but Melvin Mora was near the top for 3b; that isn't what you hear on the radio or read in the papers.

Posted by: soccer dad at November 14, 2007 11:49 AM
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