November 11, 2007
Probabilistic Model of Range, Centerfielders, 2007
Here are the team rankings for centerfielders:
Team Centerfielder PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only
Team | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | DER | Predicted DER | Ratio |
Mariners | 4535 | 452 | 423.84 | 0.100 | 0.093 | 106.64 |
Red Sox | 4226 | 481 | 452.99 | 0.114 | 0.107 | 106.18 |
Tigers | 4486 | 468 | 445.78 | 0.104 | 0.099 | 104.98 |
Cubs | 4177 | 414 | 400.21 | 0.099 | 0.096 | 103.45 |
Mets | 4362 | 464 | 449.88 | 0.106 | 0.103 | 103.14 |
Braves | 4404 | 431 | 421.41 | 0.098 | 0.096 | 102.28 |
Dodgers | 4310 | 379 | 371.16 | 0.088 | 0.086 | 102.11 |
Rockies | 4599 | 414 | 407.81 | 0.090 | 0.089 | 101.52 |
Padres | 4476 | 409 | 404.18 | 0.091 | 0.090 | 101.19 |
Cardinals | 4587 | 417 | 412.78 | 0.091 | 0.090 | 101.02 |
Reds | 4533 | 455 | 451.03 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 100.88 |
Giants | 4467 | 438 | 437.08 | 0.098 | 0.098 | 100.21 |
Nationals | 4591 | 486 | 485.40 | 0.106 | 0.106 | 100.12 |
Royals | 4528 | 424 | 425.45 | 0.094 | 0.094 | 99.66 |
Yankees | 4511 | 468 | 470.38 | 0.104 | 0.104 | 99.49 |
Phillies | 4505 | 418 | 421.10 | 0.093 | 0.093 | 99.26 |
Twins | 4384 | 415 | 418.19 | 0.095 | 0.095 | 99.24 |
White Sox | 4545 | 415 | 418.55 | 0.091 | 0.092 | 99.15 |
Angels | 4325 | 441 | 445.14 | 0.102 | 0.103 | 99.07 |
Marlins | 4491 | 453 | 458.41 | 0.101 | 0.102 | 98.82 |
Astros | 4530 | 433 | 439.56 | 0.096 | 0.097 | 98.51 |
Blue Jays | 4349 | 366 | 372.05 | 0.084 | 0.086 | 98.37 |
Pirates | 4608 | 448 | 456.67 | 0.097 | 0.099 | 98.10 |
Diamondbacks | 4351 | 406 | 414.42 | 0.093 | 0.095 | 97.97 |
Indians | 4548 | 413 | 422.64 | 0.091 | 0.093 | 97.72 |
Rangers | 4518 | 388 | 399.38 | 0.086 | 0.088 | 97.15 |
Athletics | 4499 | 398 | 410.38 | 0.088 | 0.091 | 96.98 |
Orioles | 4403 | 409 | 423.66 | 0.093 | 0.096 | 96.54 |
Devil Rays | 4378 | 419 | 444.79 | 0.096 | 0.102 | 94.20 |
Brewers | 4392 | 410 | 437.27 | 0.093 | 0.100 | 93.76 |
The Mariners come out on top of the Red Sox overall, but Boston has the better individual fielder:
Individual Centerfielder PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | DER | Predicted DER | Ratio |
Coco Crisp | 3560 | 408 | 377.29 | 0.115 | 0.106 | 108.14 |
Ichiro Suzuki | 4233 | 424 | 394.49 | 0.100 | 0.093 | 107.48 |
Felix Pie | 1169 | 120 | 112.75 | 0.103 | 0.096 | 106.43 |
Curtis Granderson | 3995 | 424 | 402.22 | 0.106 | 0.101 | 105.42 |
Jacque Jones | 1911 | 195 | 187.25 | 0.102 | 0.098 | 104.14 |
Darin Erstad | 1117 | 105 | 101.18 | 0.094 | 0.091 | 103.77 |
Willy Taveras | 2274 | 212 | 204.80 | 0.093 | 0.090 | 103.52 |
So Taguchi | 1190 | 118 | 114.17 | 0.099 | 0.096 | 103.35 |
Ryan Church | 1024 | 118 | 114.35 | 0.115 | 0.112 | 103.19 |
Andruw Jones | 4080 | 396 | 385.38 | 0.097 | 0.094 | 102.76 |
Juan Pierre | 4215 | 366 | 356.47 | 0.087 | 0.085 | 102.67 |
Josh Hamilton | 1702 | 168 | 163.71 | 0.099 | 0.096 | 102.62 |
Carlos Beltran | 3733 | 389 | 380.89 | 0.104 | 0.102 | 102.13 |
Johnny Damon | 1211 | 121 | 118.84 | 0.100 | 0.098 | 101.82 |
Gary Matthews Jr. | 3462 | 362 | 356.66 | 0.105 | 0.103 | 101.50 |
Mike Cameron | 4016 | 365 | 360.75 | 0.091 | 0.090 | 101.18 |
Nook Logan | 2398 | 248 | 245.18 | 0.103 | 0.102 | 101.15 |
Norris Hopper | 1280 | 133 | 132.11 | 0.104 | 0.103 | 100.67 |
Dave Roberts | 2334 | 224 | 222.68 | 0.096 | 0.095 | 100.59 |
Torii Hunter | 4034 | 389 | 389.12 | 0.096 | 0.096 | 99.97 |
David DeJesus | 4256 | 400 | 400.98 | 0.094 | 0.094 | 99.76 |
Alfredo Amezaga | 2005 | 208 | 208.88 | 0.104 | 0.104 | 99.58 |
Jim Edmonds | 2688 | 244 | 245.68 | 0.091 | 0.091 | 99.32 |
Aaron Rowand | 4243 | 392 | 394.89 | 0.092 | 0.093 | 99.27 |
Hunter Pence | 2636 | 260 | 261.99 | 0.099 | 0.099 | 99.24 |
Chris Duffy | 1693 | 172 | 174.17 | 0.102 | 0.103 | 98.75 |
Melky Cabrera | 3297 | 347 | 351.54 | 0.105 | 0.107 | 98.71 |
Rajai Davis | 1162 | 124 | 125.75 | 0.107 | 0.108 | 98.60 |
Ryan Freel | 1419 | 136 | 138.16 | 0.096 | 0.097 | 98.44 |
Vernon Wells | 3813 | 321 | 326.31 | 0.084 | 0.086 | 98.37 |
Grady Sizemore | 4383 | 399 | 407.44 | 0.091 | 0.093 | 97.93 |
Jerry Owens | 2294 | 208 | 212.80 | 0.091 | 0.093 | 97.75 |
Chris Young | 3824 | 354 | 364.20 | 0.093 | 0.095 | 97.20 |
B.J. Upton | 2014 | 204 | 210.16 | 0.101 | 0.104 | 97.07 |
Mark Kotsay | 1492 | 141 | 145.40 | 0.095 | 0.097 | 96.98 |
Nick Swisher | 1515 | 139 | 144.94 | 0.092 | 0.096 | 95.90 |
Marlon Byrd | 1541 | 114 | 119.68 | 0.074 | 0.078 | 95.25 |
Nate McLouth | 1583 | 142 | 150.82 | 0.090 | 0.095 | 94.15 |
Kenny Lofton | 2219 | 188 | 199.69 | 0.085 | 0.090 | 94.15 |
Corey Patterson | 3225 | 281 | 298.69 | 0.087 | 0.093 | 94.08 |
Bill Hall | 3159 | 295 | 314.62 | 0.093 | 0.100 | 93.76 |
Elijah Dukes | 1010 | 82 | 92.28 | 0.081 | 0.091 | 88.86 |
Note to that the shift of Bill Hall to center worked neither offensively nor defensively. Andruw Jones may not be as good as he once was, but he can still go get the ball.
Finally, some objective proof that Corey Patterson is also a subpar defender as well as a criminally incompetent hitter. Please, Os, please don't bring him b ack.
So tell me again, how did Grady Sizemore win the Gold Glove?
Oh yeah, that's right... the Gold Glove has nothing to do with actual fielding prowess.
Not to pick on Sizemore; there have been far worse GG winners, and any team would be happy to have him as their centerfielder. But Coco Crisp wuz robbed.
But Corey's PMR was very good in 05 and 06....
could be just a bad year?
Hall was fine after the first couple months, but he had to learn on the job, and predictably struggled early.
Bill James' observation earlier this year that Coco was making a lot of great plays seems to be supported by the data.
Looking over this list again, I realize that it's not that Grady (or any other CF) sucks, it's just that we've got an awful lot of really good centerfielders. At any other position (except maybe SS), the guys on the bottom of such a list are truly bad with the glove -- but not in this case. The bad outfielders are quickly removed from center, and dispatched to a corner spot or to DH. I mean, it's possible that guys like Vernon Wells and Melky Cabrera are overrated -- but they aren't bad.
One other note: considering the Red Sox' pending decision on CF, it'd be really interesting to see Jacoby Ellsbury's minor-league PMR. And you can bet dollars to donuts that Sox management has those numbers.
Was there any kind of trend in improvement to Hall's season?
Didn't the Brewers make a mistake moving Hall to CF? Didn't he have more value as a SS and as a trading chip? Whether the position switch played a role in his offensive decline is probably arguable. Not sure whether he could return to SS after a year in the OF but I think I would explore the possibility.
bill
It is surprising to see that Damon was as high on the list as he was...oh wait a minute the list does not take into consideration how many bounces you need to get the ball back into 2nd base. Seriously though, Mike Cameron and Torii Hunter were lower than I thought they would be. Ichiro was right were you would expect and Coco got screwed out of a GG.
Who the heck is Felix Pie? Pie finished third among centerfielders albeit with not enough playing time to qualify for the title. I saw the Cubs play three games at the end of May on the west coast. Pie did not play in any of those games. I vacationed in Nepal and India for 10 weeks over the summer. That is how I missed Felix Pie. Of course his .215 batting average is nowheres to be found among the leaders. My grandfather Othmar used to have a Labrador retriever named Pie that he went duck hunting with near Marysville and Yuba City near the Buttes.
I was very surprised by the Orioles' numbers. Corey Patterson was near the bottom for CF but Melvin Mora was near the top for 3b; that isn't what you hear on the radio or read in the papers.