Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
November 12, 2007
Probabilistic Model of Range, Second Basemen, 2007

Here are the PMR numbers for second basemen. First the team stats.

Team Second Basemen PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Reds 4533 517 470.97 0.114 0.104 109.77
Phillies 4505 507 486.30 0.113 0.108 104.26
Yankees 4511 551 528.65 0.122 0.117 104.23
Diamondbacks 4351 536 514.78 0.123 0.118 104.12
Rangers 4518 561 541.66 0.124 0.120 103.57
Twins 4384 508 491.17 0.116 0.112 103.43
Athletics 4499 610 592.38 0.136 0.132 102.97
Blue Jays 4349 589 574.80 0.135 0.132 102.47
Tigers 4486 505 494.43 0.113 0.110 102.14
Royals 4528 453 444.63 0.100 0.098 101.88
Red Sox 4226 524 515.37 0.124 0.122 101.67
Rockies 4599 558 548.82 0.121 0.119 101.67
Angels 4325 505 497.11 0.117 0.115 101.59
Mariners 4535 554 546.62 0.122 0.121 101.35
Nationals 4591 491 485.03 0.107 0.106 101.23
Indians 4548 564 557.26 0.124 0.123 101.21
Orioles 4403 534 528.33 0.121 0.120 101.07
White Sox 4545 467 466.32 0.103 0.103 100.15
Mets 4362 493 494.92 0.113 0.113 99.61
Cubs 4177 471 476.31 0.113 0.114 98.88
Brewers 4392 447 456.43 0.102 0.104 97.93
Braves 4404 521 533.24 0.118 0.121 97.70
Pirates 4608 428 440.07 0.093 0.096 97.26
Devil Rays 4378 493 507.26 0.113 0.116 97.19
Dodgers 4310 480 494.92 0.111 0.115 96.99
Cardinals 4587 509 525.15 0.111 0.114 96.92
Padres 4476 556 575.50 0.124 0.129 96.61
Marlins 4491 463 487.55 0.103 0.109 94.96
Giants 4467 450 478.37 0.101 0.107 94.07
Astros 4530 461 495.20 0.102 0.109 93.09

Looking at the teams at the bottom of the list, old second basemen are a detriment to defense. Not only did Biggio at second not help the Astros offensively, it hurt them defensively as well. Now for the individual players.

Individual Second Base PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Brandon Phillips 4288 488 442.09 0.114 0.103 110.38
Chase Utley 3571 410 386.97 0.115 0.108 105.95
Jose Valentin 1123 154 145.56 0.137 0.130 105.80
Orlando Hudson 3552 435 412.20 0.122 0.116 105.53
Esteban German 1248 117 111.06 0.094 0.089 105.35
Ian Kinsler 3581 459 438.84 0.128 0.123 104.59
Ronnie Belliard 3168 337 322.49 0.106 0.102 104.50
Robinson Cano 4380 532 509.76 0.121 0.116 104.36
Josh Barfield 3237 396 381.63 0.122 0.118 103.76
Mark Ellis 4119 561 540.88 0.136 0.131 103.72
Kaz Matsui 2634 335 323.55 0.127 0.123 103.54
Aaron Hill 4230 576 558.01 0.136 0.132 103.22
B.J. Upton 1305 174 168.87 0.133 0.129 103.04
Placido Polanco 3724 420 409.07 0.113 0.110 102.67
Jose Lopez 3899 486 475.59 0.125 0.122 102.19
Mike Fontenot 1343 152 148.82 0.113 0.111 102.14
Howie Kendrick 2222 276 270.90 0.124 0.122 101.88
Alexi Casilla 1262 144 141.60 0.114 0.112 101.70
Mark Grudzielanek 3021 312 307.78 0.103 0.102 101.37
Luis Castillo 3569 370 365.52 0.104 0.102 101.23
Tadahito Iguchi 3285 359 354.84 0.109 0.108 101.17
Geoff Blum 1481 178 176.84 0.120 0.119 100.65
Brian Roberts 4068 487 487.37 0.120 0.120 99.92
Dustin Pedroia 3365 417 417.32 0.124 0.124 99.92
Kevin Frandsen 1044 111 112.56 0.106 0.108 98.61
Danny Richar 1554 152 154.45 0.098 0.099 98.42
Jamey Carroll 1396 165 168.34 0.118 0.121 98.02
Adam Kennedy 2060 250 256.18 0.121 0.124 97.59
Freddy Sanchez 4064 378 387.80 0.093 0.095 97.47
Kelly Johnson 3474 412 423.58 0.119 0.122 97.27
Felipe Lopez 1208 129 134.76 0.107 0.112 95.72
Jeff Kent 3237 355 372.41 0.110 0.115 95.33
Mark DeRosa 2056 223 234.54 0.108 0.114 95.08
Marcus Giles 2883 364 383.01 0.126 0.133 95.04
Aaron Miles 1834 183 194.00 0.100 0.106 94.33
Dan Uggla 4310 438 466.30 0.102 0.108 93.93
Rickie Weeks 3003 301 320.45 0.100 0.107 93.93
Ray Durham 3183 320 343.81 0.101 0.108 93.08
Craig Biggio 2878 283 308.32 0.098 0.107 91.79
Brendan Harris 1206 110 124.59 0.091 0.103 88.29

Rickie Weeks and Dan Uggla need to be at the top of their offensive games to stay at this important defensive position.

Correction: Fixed caption on first table.


Posted by David Pinto at 08:59 AM | Defense • | Probabilistic Model of Range | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Wow, Phillips really is head and shoulders above the rest of the league. And Utley is the complete package, eh? As a Yankee fan, it's nice to see Cano up there near the top of the heap. At this point, you'd be hard to argue against Cano being the #2 all-around 2B in MLB.

Posted by: sabernar at November 12, 2007 09:18 AM

Hmm. Upton's numbers at second base and centerfield in 2007 are interesting, as is Brendan Harris' second base number. Sample size warnings abound.

Posted by: Mike Green at November 12, 2007 10:30 AM

The top two offensive second basemen are also the top two defensive second basemen. It just isn't fair. Then there's Jose Valentin, who is still a very good defensive player, despite being an exhumed corpse. If only he would realize that he can't hit right-handed, he would be a great platoon half.

David, can you give the numbers for Ruben Gotay and Damion Easley, however small and insignificant?

Posted by: Blastings Thrilledge at November 12, 2007 11:27 AM

FYI, says CF above the table, not 2B.

Wow, Durham IS as bad as his reputation...

Posted by: obsessivegiantscompulsive at November 12, 2007 11:40 AM

I'd actually have a pretty easy time arguing Phillips and Utley being above Cano, I think :-) Kinsler might even be above him too, mostly due to a superior batting eye. In fact, I'd say that's the only real weakness in Cano's game - if he could be something like a .315/.385 BA/OBA, he'd be extremely valuable.

Posted by: Mike at November 12, 2007 01:23 PM

Dave, I was wondering how much the Astros might improved defensively at 2d base now that Biggio has retired. Do you know how Chris Burke rates at 2d base?

Posted by: CL Johnson at November 12, 2007 03:05 PM

I would say Uggla and Weeks just need to continue hitting at the above average rate they have. Now, if they hit like Biggio, that's where the problems come in.

Posted by: Al at November 12, 2007 04:52 PM

Phillips Mike? Really?

Cano's a year younger and has put up the following ops for his basically 3 season career:

.316/.346/.489 .835 ops

Phillips? Career .725 ops. over 3 seasons.

Even last season, when he hit 30 homers playing in a launching pad, Cano out hit him. .306/.353/.488 for Robbie to .288/.331/.485 for Brandon.

Need I add one plays in the AL East, and the other in the NL Central?

And though Robbie doesn't walk a ton, he's getting better, jumping to 39 walks last year from 18 the previous season. That 39 is better than Phillips btw, who also seems to have issues eye-wise.

Posted by: Yankee Fan in Chicago at November 12, 2007 06:41 PM

I'm not sure I follow the Upton comments. He looked pretty good at 2nd. His range made up for any errors he was making. Harris has Cantu-like range.

As for B.J. in center, he played very well but deep. He began to move shallower as the season went on. I see a big improvement coming next year.

Posted by: Tallyray at November 12, 2007 09:53 PM

Is anyone else surprised by Belliard and Barfield being in the upper third? As an Indians fan, I've been hearing a lot about how Belliard just isn't good and that Barfield regressed.

Posted by: Andy at November 12, 2007 10:25 PM

Yes, I will take 5% more fielded balls at 2B over .020 points of OPS anytime. I have no idea how either of them projects for next year, I suppose Phillips is slated to regress quite a bit since his doubles remained almost flat and he had such an increase in HR, but I think he's due for a boost in BA as well. But if we're talking about next year and thereafter, I'd say Kinsler would probably project better than both of them. He had abysmal luck with BABIP this year, has an excellent eye, a ridiculous Steal success rate (23 steals, 2 caught), and he did most of his power damage in the month that it's hardest to hit HR in Texas.

Posted by: Mike at November 13, 2007 08:31 AM

I'm surprised not to see Ellis higher up this list. UZR and RZR both ranked him as the best 2B by large margins.

Posted by: MrIncognito at November 13, 2007 10:06 AM

This is the first time I've ever read anyone say Upton was good at 2B. When you get moved off a position on a team as bad defensively as the Rays, that tells me he can't play 2B.

The rest of the ratings look about right (have my doubts on Kinsler) and a good stat should surprise you every know and then.

Its pointless if it only tells you what you already know. Upton is a surprise to me.

Posted by: Rally at November 13, 2007 10:26 AM

FWIW,

When Fans evaluated fielding on my site, a good share of those people felt compelled to point out that when they did Upton, they saw him as night/day between 2B and OF (that he was horrible at 2B). He probably led the "additional comments" I received on any player in the league. If you were to tell those fans that he may have been better at 2B, they'd likely think you are crazy.

Consider the PBP results of Upton as simply an anomoly that you'd expect out of any system.

FWIW, Dewan's plus/minus had Upton below average at 2B and above average at CF.

Posted by: tangotiger at November 13, 2007 12:52 PM
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