November 12, 2007
Probabilistic Model of Range, Second Basemen, 2007
Here are the PMR numbers for second basemen. First the team stats.
Team Second Basemen PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only
Team | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | DER | Predicted DER | Ratio |
Reds | 4533 | 517 | 470.97 | 0.114 | 0.104 | 109.77 |
Phillies | 4505 | 507 | 486.30 | 0.113 | 0.108 | 104.26 |
Yankees | 4511 | 551 | 528.65 | 0.122 | 0.117 | 104.23 |
Diamondbacks | 4351 | 536 | 514.78 | 0.123 | 0.118 | 104.12 |
Rangers | 4518 | 561 | 541.66 | 0.124 | 0.120 | 103.57 |
Twins | 4384 | 508 | 491.17 | 0.116 | 0.112 | 103.43 |
Athletics | 4499 | 610 | 592.38 | 0.136 | 0.132 | 102.97 |
Blue Jays | 4349 | 589 | 574.80 | 0.135 | 0.132 | 102.47 |
Tigers | 4486 | 505 | 494.43 | 0.113 | 0.110 | 102.14 |
Royals | 4528 | 453 | 444.63 | 0.100 | 0.098 | 101.88 |
Red Sox | 4226 | 524 | 515.37 | 0.124 | 0.122 | 101.67 |
Rockies | 4599 | 558 | 548.82 | 0.121 | 0.119 | 101.67 |
Angels | 4325 | 505 | 497.11 | 0.117 | 0.115 | 101.59 |
Mariners | 4535 | 554 | 546.62 | 0.122 | 0.121 | 101.35 |
Nationals | 4591 | 491 | 485.03 | 0.107 | 0.106 | 101.23 |
Indians | 4548 | 564 | 557.26 | 0.124 | 0.123 | 101.21 |
Orioles | 4403 | 534 | 528.33 | 0.121 | 0.120 | 101.07 |
White Sox | 4545 | 467 | 466.32 | 0.103 | 0.103 | 100.15 |
Mets | 4362 | 493 | 494.92 | 0.113 | 0.113 | 99.61 |
Cubs | 4177 | 471 | 476.31 | 0.113 | 0.114 | 98.88 |
Brewers | 4392 | 447 | 456.43 | 0.102 | 0.104 | 97.93 |
Braves | 4404 | 521 | 533.24 | 0.118 | 0.121 | 97.70 |
Pirates | 4608 | 428 | 440.07 | 0.093 | 0.096 | 97.26 |
Devil Rays | 4378 | 493 | 507.26 | 0.113 | 0.116 | 97.19 |
Dodgers | 4310 | 480 | 494.92 | 0.111 | 0.115 | 96.99 |
Cardinals | 4587 | 509 | 525.15 | 0.111 | 0.114 | 96.92 |
Padres | 4476 | 556 | 575.50 | 0.124 | 0.129 | 96.61 |
Marlins | 4491 | 463 | 487.55 | 0.103 | 0.109 | 94.96 |
Giants | 4467 | 450 | 478.37 | 0.101 | 0.107 | 94.07 |
Astros | 4530 | 461 | 495.20 | 0.102 | 0.109 | 93.09 |
Looking at the teams at the bottom of the list, old second basemen are a detriment to defense. Not only did Biggio at second not help the Astros offensively, it hurt them defensively as well. Now for the individual players.
Individual Second Base PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | DER | Predicted DER | Ratio |
Brandon Phillips | 4288 | 488 | 442.09 | 0.114 | 0.103 | 110.38 |
Chase Utley | 3571 | 410 | 386.97 | 0.115 | 0.108 | 105.95 |
Jose Valentin | 1123 | 154 | 145.56 | 0.137 | 0.130 | 105.80 |
Orlando Hudson | 3552 | 435 | 412.20 | 0.122 | 0.116 | 105.53 |
Esteban German | 1248 | 117 | 111.06 | 0.094 | 0.089 | 105.35 |
Ian Kinsler | 3581 | 459 | 438.84 | 0.128 | 0.123 | 104.59 |
Ronnie Belliard | 3168 | 337 | 322.49 | 0.106 | 0.102 | 104.50 |
Robinson Cano | 4380 | 532 | 509.76 | 0.121 | 0.116 | 104.36 |
Josh Barfield | 3237 | 396 | 381.63 | 0.122 | 0.118 | 103.76 |
Mark Ellis | 4119 | 561 | 540.88 | 0.136 | 0.131 | 103.72 |
Kaz Matsui | 2634 | 335 | 323.55 | 0.127 | 0.123 | 103.54 |
Aaron Hill | 4230 | 576 | 558.01 | 0.136 | 0.132 | 103.22 |
B.J. Upton | 1305 | 174 | 168.87 | 0.133 | 0.129 | 103.04 |
Placido Polanco | 3724 | 420 | 409.07 | 0.113 | 0.110 | 102.67 |
Jose Lopez | 3899 | 486 | 475.59 | 0.125 | 0.122 | 102.19 |
Mike Fontenot | 1343 | 152 | 148.82 | 0.113 | 0.111 | 102.14 |
Howie Kendrick | 2222 | 276 | 270.90 | 0.124 | 0.122 | 101.88 |
Alexi Casilla | 1262 | 144 | 141.60 | 0.114 | 0.112 | 101.70 |
Mark Grudzielanek | 3021 | 312 | 307.78 | 0.103 | 0.102 | 101.37 |
Luis Castillo | 3569 | 370 | 365.52 | 0.104 | 0.102 | 101.23 |
Tadahito Iguchi | 3285 | 359 | 354.84 | 0.109 | 0.108 | 101.17 |
Geoff Blum | 1481 | 178 | 176.84 | 0.120 | 0.119 | 100.65 |
Brian Roberts | 4068 | 487 | 487.37 | 0.120 | 0.120 | 99.92 |
Dustin Pedroia | 3365 | 417 | 417.32 | 0.124 | 0.124 | 99.92 |
Kevin Frandsen | 1044 | 111 | 112.56 | 0.106 | 0.108 | 98.61 |
Danny Richar | 1554 | 152 | 154.45 | 0.098 | 0.099 | 98.42 |
Jamey Carroll | 1396 | 165 | 168.34 | 0.118 | 0.121 | 98.02 |
Adam Kennedy | 2060 | 250 | 256.18 | 0.121 | 0.124 | 97.59 |
Freddy Sanchez | 4064 | 378 | 387.80 | 0.093 | 0.095 | 97.47 |
Kelly Johnson | 3474 | 412 | 423.58 | 0.119 | 0.122 | 97.27 |
Felipe Lopez | 1208 | 129 | 134.76 | 0.107 | 0.112 | 95.72 |
Jeff Kent | 3237 | 355 | 372.41 | 0.110 | 0.115 | 95.33 |
Mark DeRosa | 2056 | 223 | 234.54 | 0.108 | 0.114 | 95.08 |
Marcus Giles | 2883 | 364 | 383.01 | 0.126 | 0.133 | 95.04 |
Aaron Miles | 1834 | 183 | 194.00 | 0.100 | 0.106 | 94.33 |
Dan Uggla | 4310 | 438 | 466.30 | 0.102 | 0.108 | 93.93 |
Rickie Weeks | 3003 | 301 | 320.45 | 0.100 | 0.107 | 93.93 |
Ray Durham | 3183 | 320 | 343.81 | 0.101 | 0.108 | 93.08 |
Craig Biggio | 2878 | 283 | 308.32 | 0.098 | 0.107 | 91.79 |
Brendan Harris | 1206 | 110 | 124.59 | 0.091 | 0.103 | 88.29 |
Rickie Weeks and Dan Uggla need to be at the top of their offensive games to stay at this important defensive position.
Correction: Fixed caption on first table.
Wow, Phillips really is head and shoulders above the rest of the league. And Utley is the complete package, eh? As a Yankee fan, it's nice to see Cano up there near the top of the heap. At this point, you'd be hard to argue against Cano being the #2 all-around 2B in MLB.
Hmm. Upton's numbers at second base and centerfield in 2007 are interesting, as is Brendan Harris' second base number. Sample size warnings abound.
The top two offensive second basemen are also the top two defensive second basemen. It just isn't fair. Then there's Jose Valentin, who is still a very good defensive player, despite being an exhumed corpse. If only he would realize that he can't hit right-handed, he would be a great platoon half.
David, can you give the numbers for Ruben Gotay and Damion Easley, however small and insignificant?
FYI, says CF above the table, not 2B.
Wow, Durham IS as bad as his reputation...
I'd actually have a pretty easy time arguing Phillips and Utley being above Cano, I think :-) Kinsler might even be above him too, mostly due to a superior batting eye. In fact, I'd say that's the only real weakness in Cano's game - if he could be something like a .315/.385 BA/OBA, he'd be extremely valuable.
Dave, I was wondering how much the Astros might improved defensively at 2d base now that Biggio has retired. Do you know how Chris Burke rates at 2d base?
I would say Uggla and Weeks just need to continue hitting at the above average rate they have. Now, if they hit like Biggio, that's where the problems come in.
Phillips Mike? Really?
Cano's a year younger and has put up the following ops for his basically 3 season career:
.316/.346/.489 .835 ops
Phillips? Career .725 ops. over 3 seasons.
Even last season, when he hit 30 homers playing in a launching pad, Cano out hit him. .306/.353/.488 for Robbie to .288/.331/.485 for Brandon.
Need I add one plays in the AL East, and the other in the NL Central?
And though Robbie doesn't walk a ton, he's getting better, jumping to 39 walks last year from 18 the previous season. That 39 is better than Phillips btw, who also seems to have issues eye-wise.
I'm not sure I follow the Upton comments. He looked pretty good at 2nd. His range made up for any errors he was making. Harris has Cantu-like range.
As for B.J. in center, he played very well but deep. He began to move shallower as the season went on. I see a big improvement coming next year.
Is anyone else surprised by Belliard and Barfield being in the upper third? As an Indians fan, I've been hearing a lot about how Belliard just isn't good and that Barfield regressed.
Yes, I will take 5% more fielded balls at 2B over .020 points of OPS anytime. I have no idea how either of them projects for next year, I suppose Phillips is slated to regress quite a bit since his doubles remained almost flat and he had such an increase in HR, but I think he's due for a boost in BA as well. But if we're talking about next year and thereafter, I'd say Kinsler would probably project better than both of them. He had abysmal luck with BABIP this year, has an excellent eye, a ridiculous Steal success rate (23 steals, 2 caught), and he did most of his power damage in the month that it's hardest to hit HR in Texas.
I'm surprised not to see Ellis higher up this list. UZR and RZR both ranked him as the best 2B by large margins.
This is the first time I've ever read anyone say Upton was good at 2B. When you get moved off a position on a team as bad defensively as the Rays, that tells me he can't play 2B.
The rest of the ratings look about right (have my doubts on Kinsler) and a good stat should surprise you every know and then.
Its pointless if it only tells you what you already know. Upton is a surprise to me.
FWIW,
When Fans evaluated fielding on my site, a good share of those people felt compelled to point out that when they did Upton, they saw him as night/day between 2B and OF (that he was horrible at 2B). He probably led the "additional comments" I received on any player in the league. If you were to tell those fans that he may have been better at 2B, they'd likely think you are crazy.
Consider the PBP results of Upton as simply an anomoly that you'd expect out of any system.
FWIW, Dewan's plus/minus had Upton below average at 2B and above average at CF.