Baseball Musings: Probabilistic Model of Range, Leftfielders, 2007

November 16, 2007

Probabilistic Model of Range, Leftfielders, 2007

Here's something the Orioles excelled at during 2007, fielding by leftfielders:

Team Leftfielders PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only
Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Orioles	4403	362	343.61	0.082	0.078	105.35
Indians	4548	339	325.23	0.075	0.072	104.23
Braves	4404	316	306.69	0.072	0.070	103.04
Rangers	4518	337	327.32	0.075	0.072	102.96
Nationals	4591	352	341.94	0.077	0.074	102.94
Yankees	4511	334	324.93	0.074	0.072	102.79
Brewers	4392	322	314.81	0.073	0.072	102.28
Mets	4362	324	317.91	0.074	0.073	101.91
Padres	4476	310	305.07	0.069	0.068	101.62
Royals	4528	373	367.39	0.082	0.081	101.53
Devil Rays	4378	339	334.26	0.077	0.076	101.42
Cubs	4177	341	337.65	0.082	0.081	100.99
Diamondbacks	4351	349	345.83	0.080	0.079	100.92
Blue Jays	4349	294	292.63	0.068	0.067	100.47
Dodgers	4310	288	287.78	0.067	0.067	100.08
Angels	4325	340	341.60	0.079	0.079	99.53
Giants	4467	314	317.61	0.070	0.071	98.86
Tigers	4486	327	331.60	0.073	0.074	98.61
Marlins	4491	274	278.60	0.061	0.062	98.35
Astros	4530	285	290.69	0.063	0.064	98.04
Athletics	4499	337	344.34	0.075	0.077	97.87
White Sox	4545	318	325.73	0.070	0.072	97.63
Pirates	4608	303	310.81	0.066	0.067	97.49
Rockies	4599	317	326.69	0.069	0.071	97.03
Reds	4533	326	336.27	0.072	0.074	96.95
Twins	4384	334	345.60	0.076	0.079	96.64
Phillies	4505	282	295.91	0.063	0.066	95.30
Red Sox	4226	284	299.24	0.067	0.071	94.91
Cardinals	4587	320	346.16	0.070	0.075	92.44
Mariners	4535	288	315.31	0.064	0.070	91.34

Among individuals, Matt Diaz had a career year with the glove as well as the bat.

Individual Leftfielder PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Matt Diaz	2064	155	142.05	0.075	0.069	109.11
Jose Cruz	1099	89	82.33	0.081	0.075	108.10
Joey Gathright	1595	154	142.69	0.097	0.089	107.93
Jay Payton	2776	231	214.85	0.083	0.077	107.52
David Dellucci	1210	97	91.32	0.080	0.075	106.22
Scott Hairston	1689	115	108.48	0.068	0.064	106.01
Wily Mo Pena	1126	68	64.97	0.060	0.058	104.66
Ryan Church	2304	196	188.59	0.085	0.082	103.93
Geoff Jenkins	2985	243	234.55	0.081	0.079	103.60
Carl Crawford	3623	286	276.65	0.079	0.076	103.38
Hideki Matsui	3091	214	207.16	0.069	0.067	103.30
Adam Lind	1969	137	132.73	0.070	0.067	103.22
Jason Michaels	1567	117	113.59	0.075	0.072	103.00
Reggie Willits	1557	151	146.83	0.097	0.094	102.84
Reed Johnson	1518	108	105.47	0.071	0.069	102.40
Emil Brown	1909	155	153.22	0.081	0.080	101.16
Eric Byrnes	2924	239	236.90	0.082	0.081	100.89
Alfonso Soriano	3074	245	243.79	0.080	0.079	100.50
Rob Mackowiak	1468	98	97.52	0.067	0.066	100.49
Kenny Lofton	1189	82	82.28	0.069	0.069	99.66
Willie Harris	1873	138	139.21	0.074	0.074	99.13
Ryan Ludwick	1011	86	86.83	0.085	0.086	99.04
Frank Catalanotto	1540	98	99.82	0.064	0.065	98.18
Jason Bay	3974	266	271.62	0.067	0.068	97.93
Luis Gonzalez	3008	192	196.31	0.064	0.065	97.81
Matt Holliday	4331	296	303.68	0.068	0.070	97.47
Carlos Lee	4244	261	268.68	0.061	0.063	97.14
Moises Alou	2105	138	142.80	0.066	0.068	96.64
Shannon Stewart	3606	277	287.12	0.077	0.080	96.47
Kevin Mench	1139	55	57.41	0.048	0.050	95.81
Craig Monroe	2512	166	174.76	0.066	0.070	94.99
Garret Anderson	2169	143	150.84	0.066	0.070	94.81
Scott Podsednik	1421	108	114.15	0.076	0.080	94.61
Josh Willingham	3653	211	223.26	0.058	0.061	94.51
Adam Dunn	3691	245	259.98	0.066	0.070	94.24
Terrmel Sledge	1192	77	82.16	0.065	0.069	93.72
Barry Bonds	2588	162	173.93	0.063	0.067	93.14
Jason Kubel	2153	159	172.31	0.074	0.080	92.27
Raul Ibanez	3559	224	243.95	0.063	0.069	91.82
Manny Ramirez	2925	182	198.85	0.062	0.068	91.53
Chris Duncan	2437	158	175.74	0.065	0.072	89.90
Pat Burrell	3176	176	198.31	0.055	0.062	88.75

There's no real surprises at the bottom of the list. Bonds, however, fell off quite a bit. He was average in 2006, but well below average in 2007. You can also see that there are few regular leftfielders. Only twelve players on the list were on the field at that position for at least 3000 balls in play.

Posted by David Pinto at 03:35 PM | Defense • | Probabilistic Model of Range | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Can you please forward this list to Frank Wren? thanks.

Posted by: dan h at November 17, 2007 09:21 AM

As a Cardinals fan I find it disturbing to see Duncan so low on the list. I knew he was not a very good LF but never realized how far down on the list he would be. Thanks for the information.

Posted by: tom@cardinalsgm at November 18, 2007 10:58 PM