Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
November 09, 2003
Probabilistic Model of Range, Batter's Effect

The previous post looked at the effect of the pitcher's handedness on the probablistic range calculation. We now look at how the handedness of the batter effects that calculation.

The following table calculates expected DER based on the batted ball type, direction, speed and the handedness of the batter. I basically substituted batting side for throwing hand in this calculation. The results:

TeamExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Mariners 3043.3 0.703 3120.0 0.720 0.01771
Phillies 3014.4 0.688 3073.0 0.701 0.01337
Cardinals 3177.7 0.687 3229.0 0.698 0.01108
White Sox 2979.0 0.696 3018.0 0.705 0.00911
Padres 2973.6 0.686 3009.0 0.695 0.00817
Angels 3073.6 0.694 3108.0 0.702 0.00778
Expos 3034.1 0.686 3066.0 0.693 0.00721
Braves 3119.2 0.691 3150.0 0.697 0.00681
Dodgers 2801.2 0.696 2828.0 0.703 0.00665
Reds 3167.0 0.682 3195.0 0.688 0.00603
Astros 2960.4 0.699 2981.0 0.704 0.00485
Royals 3219.2 0.688 3231.0 0.690 0.00252
Brewers 3115.2 0.682 3123.0 0.683 0.00170
Rockies 3157.0 0.677 3163.0 0.678 0.00129
Cubs 2754.0 0.689 2759.0 0.691 0.00125
Orioles 3132.0 0.683 3132.0 0.683 0.00001
Marlins 3000.3 0.692 2999.0 0.692 -0.00029
Devil Rays 3212.3 0.708 3204.0 0.707 -0.00182
Indians 3198.8 0.700 3190.0 0.698 -0.00192
Giants 3103.0 0.712 3091.0 0.709 -0.00276
Athletics 3125.6 0.715 3112.0 0.712 -0.00312
Twins 3245.7 0.704 3226.0 0.699 -0.00428
Blue Jays 3130.4 0.686 3106.0 0.681 -0.00535
Tigers 3312.2 0.689 3283.0 0.683 -0.00608
Mets 3130.7 0.695 3099.0 0.688 -0.00703
Rangers 3115.1 0.688 3060.0 0.675 -0.01216
Pirates 3255.2 0.704 3196.0 0.691 -0.01280
Diamondbacks 2946.4 0.703 2888.0 0.689 -0.01394
Yankees 3144.7 0.695 3074.0 0.679 -0.01564
Red Sox 3147.3 0.699 3076.0 0.684 -0.01585

Again, like throwning hand, batting side doesn't make a big difference in order of team compared to just using the batted ball parameters. It also seems that the boost the Dodgers and Athletics got from looking at the handedness of the pitchers is balanced by the decline when you look at the handedness of the opposing batters. To check this, I ran the calculation using both pitcher and batter handedness:

TeamExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Mariners 3043.0 0.703 3120.0 0.720 0.01778
Phillies 3015.9 0.688 3073.0 0.701 0.01303
Cardinals 3179.9 0.688 3229.0 0.698 0.01062
White Sox 2977.9 0.696 3018.0 0.705 0.00936
Padres 2975.8 0.687 3009.0 0.695 0.00766
Angels 3075.8 0.694 3108.0 0.702 0.00727
Dodgers 2799.2 0.696 2828.0 0.703 0.00717
Braves 3118.6 0.690 3150.0 0.697 0.00694
Expos 3035.3 0.686 3066.0 0.693 0.00693
Reds 3166.2 0.682 3195.0 0.688 0.00621
Astros 2962.3 0.699 2981.0 0.704 0.00442
Royals 3217.9 0.688 3231.0 0.690 0.00280
Brewers 3114.2 0.681 3123.0 0.683 0.00193
Rockies 3158.7 0.677 3163.0 0.678 0.00091
Orioles 3130.5 0.683 3132.0 0.683 0.00033
Cubs 2758.4 0.690 2759.0 0.691 0.00014
Indians 3191.9 0.698 3190.0 0.698 -0.00042
Marlins 3003.4 0.693 2999.0 0.692 -0.00101
Athletics 3119.0 0.713 3112.0 0.712 -0.00160
Devil Rays 3214.1 0.709 3204.0 0.707 -0.00222
Giants 3102.0 0.712 3091.0 0.709 -0.00253
Twins 3243.6 0.703 3226.0 0.699 -0.00382
Blue Jays 3130.8 0.687 3106.0 0.681 -0.00544
Tigers 3311.0 0.689 3283.0 0.683 -0.00582
Mets 3134.4 0.695 3099.0 0.688 -0.00785
Pirates 3253.9 0.704 3196.0 0.691 -0.01251
Rangers 3117.5 0.688 3060.0 0.675 -0.01269
Diamondbacks 2948.2 0.704 2888.0 0.689 -0.01437
Yankees 3140.4 0.694 3074.0 0.679 -0.01469
Red Sox 3148.9 0.700 3076.0 0.684 -0.01620

So they don't cancel each other out. I'll summarize the results so far in my next post.


Posted by David Pinto at 09:29 AM | Defense | TrackBack (0)