November 09, 2003
Probabilistic Model of Range, Batter's Effect
The previous post looked at the effect of the pitcher's handedness on the probablistic range calculation. We now look at how the handedness of the batter effects that calculation.
The following table calculates expected DER based on the batted ball type, direction, speed and the handedness of the batter. I basically substituted batting side for throwing hand in this calculation. The results:
| Team | Expected Outs | Expected DER | Actual Outs | Actual DER | DER Difference |
| Mariners | 3043.3 | 0.703 | 3120.0 | 0.720 | 0.01771 |
| Phillies | 3014.4 | 0.688 | 3073.0 | 0.701 | 0.01337 |
| Cardinals | 3177.7 | 0.687 | 3229.0 | 0.698 | 0.01108 |
| White Sox | 2979.0 | 0.696 | 3018.0 | 0.705 | 0.00911 |
| Padres | 2973.6 | 0.686 | 3009.0 | 0.695 | 0.00817 |
| Angels | 3073.6 | 0.694 | 3108.0 | 0.702 | 0.00778 |
| Expos | 3034.1 | 0.686 | 3066.0 | 0.693 | 0.00721 |
| Braves | 3119.2 | 0.691 | 3150.0 | 0.697 | 0.00681 |
| Dodgers | 2801.2 | 0.696 | 2828.0 | 0.703 | 0.00665 |
| Reds | 3167.0 | 0.682 | 3195.0 | 0.688 | 0.00603 |
| Astros | 2960.4 | 0.699 | 2981.0 | 0.704 | 0.00485 |
| Royals | 3219.2 | 0.688 | 3231.0 | 0.690 | 0.00252 |
| Brewers | 3115.2 | 0.682 | 3123.0 | 0.683 | 0.00170 |
| Rockies | 3157.0 | 0.677 | 3163.0 | 0.678 | 0.00129 |
| Cubs | 2754.0 | 0.689 | 2759.0 | 0.691 | 0.00125 |
| Orioles | 3132.0 | 0.683 | 3132.0 | 0.683 | 0.00001 |
| Marlins | 3000.3 | 0.692 | 2999.0 | 0.692 | -0.00029 |
| Devil Rays | 3212.3 | 0.708 | 3204.0 | 0.707 | -0.00182 |
| Indians | 3198.8 | 0.700 | 3190.0 | 0.698 | -0.00192 |
| Giants | 3103.0 | 0.712 | 3091.0 | 0.709 | -0.00276 |
| Athletics | 3125.6 | 0.715 | 3112.0 | 0.712 | -0.00312 |
| Twins | 3245.7 | 0.704 | 3226.0 | 0.699 | -0.00428 |
| Blue Jays | 3130.4 | 0.686 | 3106.0 | 0.681 | -0.00535 |
| Tigers | 3312.2 | 0.689 | 3283.0 | 0.683 | -0.00608 |
| Mets | 3130.7 | 0.695 | 3099.0 | 0.688 | -0.00703 |
| Rangers | 3115.1 | 0.688 | 3060.0 | 0.675 | -0.01216 |
| Pirates | 3255.2 | 0.704 | 3196.0 | 0.691 | -0.01280 |
| Diamondbacks | 2946.4 | 0.703 | 2888.0 | 0.689 | -0.01394 |
| Yankees | 3144.7 | 0.695 | 3074.0 | 0.679 | -0.01564 |
| Red Sox | 3147.3 | 0.699 | 3076.0 | 0.684 | -0.01585 |
Again, like throwning hand, batting side doesn't make a big difference in order of team compared to just using the batted ball parameters. It also seems that the boost the Dodgers and Athletics got from looking at the handedness of the pitchers is balanced by the decline when you look at the handedness of the opposing batters. To check this, I ran the calculation using both pitcher and batter handedness:
| Team | Expected Outs | Expected DER | Actual Outs | Actual DER | DER Difference |
| Mariners | 3043.0 | 0.703 | 3120.0 | 0.720 | 0.01778 |
| Phillies | 3015.9 | 0.688 | 3073.0 | 0.701 | 0.01303 |
| Cardinals | 3179.9 | 0.688 | 3229.0 | 0.698 | 0.01062 |
| White Sox | 2977.9 | 0.696 | 3018.0 | 0.705 | 0.00936 |
| Padres | 2975.8 | 0.687 | 3009.0 | 0.695 | 0.00766 |
| Angels | 3075.8 | 0.694 | 3108.0 | 0.702 | 0.00727 |
| Dodgers | 2799.2 | 0.696 | 2828.0 | 0.703 | 0.00717 |
| Braves | 3118.6 | 0.690 | 3150.0 | 0.697 | 0.00694 |
| Expos | 3035.3 | 0.686 | 3066.0 | 0.693 | 0.00693 |
| Reds | 3166.2 | 0.682 | 3195.0 | 0.688 | 0.00621 |
| Astros | 2962.3 | 0.699 | 2981.0 | 0.704 | 0.00442 |
| Royals | 3217.9 | 0.688 | 3231.0 | 0.690 | 0.00280 |
| Brewers | 3114.2 | 0.681 | 3123.0 | 0.683 | 0.00193 |
| Rockies | 3158.7 | 0.677 | 3163.0 | 0.678 | 0.00091 |
| Orioles | 3130.5 | 0.683 | 3132.0 | 0.683 | 0.00033 |
| Cubs | 2758.4 | 0.690 | 2759.0 | 0.691 | 0.00014 |
| Indians | 3191.9 | 0.698 | 3190.0 | 0.698 | -0.00042 |
| Marlins | 3003.4 | 0.693 | 2999.0 | 0.692 | -0.00101 |
| Athletics | 3119.0 | 0.713 | 3112.0 | 0.712 | -0.00160 |
| Devil Rays | 3214.1 | 0.709 | 3204.0 | 0.707 | -0.00222 |
| Giants | 3102.0 | 0.712 | 3091.0 | 0.709 | -0.00253 |
| Twins | 3243.6 | 0.703 | 3226.0 | 0.699 | -0.00382 |
| Blue Jays | 3130.8 | 0.687 | 3106.0 | 0.681 | -0.00544 |
| Tigers | 3311.0 | 0.689 | 3283.0 | 0.683 | -0.00582 |
| Mets | 3134.4 | 0.695 | 3099.0 | 0.688 | -0.00785 |
| Pirates | 3253.9 | 0.704 | 3196.0 | 0.691 | -0.01251 |
| Rangers | 3117.5 | 0.688 | 3060.0 | 0.675 | -0.01269 |
| Diamondbacks | 2948.2 | 0.704 | 2888.0 | 0.689 | -0.01437 |
| Yankees | 3140.4 | 0.694 | 3074.0 | 0.679 | -0.01469 |
| Red Sox | 3148.9 | 0.700 | 3076.0 | 0.684 | -0.01620 |
So they don't cancel each other out. I'll summarize the results so far in my next post.
Posted by David Pinto at
09:29 AM
|
Defense
|
TrackBack (0)