Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
November 13, 2003
Helping and Hurting Defenders

I'm received a number of comments on the probabilistic model of range indicating that people think this system will help answer the question, "How much do pitchers contribute to the hits allowed against them?" One way of looking at this is to look at expected DER. If the expected DER is high, then the pitchers are inducing balls in play that are easy to field. If low, the opposite is true. Here's the team chart sorted on expected DER:

TeamExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Athletics 3122.8 0.714 3112.0 0.712 -0.00247
Mariners 3082.7 0.712 3120.0 0.720 0.00861
Dodgers 2847.6 0.708 2828.0 0.703 -0.00487
Giants 3068.8 0.704 3091.0 0.709 0.00509
Phillies 3079.9 0.703 3073.0 0.701 -0.00158
White Sox 3006.7 0.703 3018.0 0.705 0.00263
Cardinals 3245.3 0.702 3229.0 0.698 -0.00353
Devil Rays 3179.2 0.701 3204.0 0.707 0.00547
Angels 3093.0 0.698 3108.0 0.702 0.00340
Astros 2955.6 0.698 2981.0 0.704 0.00600
Mets 3140.2 0.697 3099.0 0.688 -0.00915
Padres 3016.6 0.696 3009.0 0.695 -0.00174
Diamondbacks 2907.1 0.694 2888.0 0.689 -0.00455
Twins 3200.2 0.694 3226.0 0.699 0.00560
Marlins 3000.8 0.692 2999.0 0.692 -0.00041
Tigers 3324.2 0.692 3283.0 0.683 -0.00857
Pirates 3196.9 0.691 3196.0 0.691 -0.00019
Expos 3057.3 0.691 3066.0 0.693 0.00197
Indians 3155.4 0.690 3190.0 0.698 0.00756
Cubs 2753.7 0.689 2759.0 0.691 0.00133
Royals 3225.4 0.689 3231.0 0.690 0.00119
Braves 3108.9 0.688 3150.0 0.697 0.00909
Orioles 3154.1 0.688 3132.0 0.683 -0.00482
Yankees 3110.6 0.688 3074.0 0.679 -0.00809
Reds 3193.5 0.688 3195.0 0.688 0.00032
Red Sox 3084.2 0.685 3076.0 0.684 -0.00183
Rockies 3190.6 0.684 3163.0 0.678 -0.00593
Brewers 3125.5 0.684 3123.0 0.683 -0.00054
Blue Jays 3092.0 0.678 3106.0 0.681 0.00306
Rangers 3070.3 0.678 3060.0 0.675 -0.00227

As you can see, the pitchers who gave their defense the easiest balls to field belonged to the staff of the Oakland A's. And the Rangers ranking at the bottom show just how bad that pitching staff was. The next step will be to apply this to individual pitchers.

Update: Here's a table of all pitchers with at least 100 balls put in play against them (fieldable balls only). Find your favorite pitcher and see how he did. Notice Gagne was higher than Schmidt, and Schmidt was much higher than Prior.

Update: Looks like I can't put the whole pitcher's table in the entry, so I'm redoing it with all pitchers who have had 200 balls put into play against them. There will be another update when that's done.

Update: Okay, the final table is in place below.

TeamExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Keith Foulke 161.5 0.758 163.0 0.765 0.00697
Julio Mateo 177.0 0.753 180.0 0.766 0.01296
Barry Zito 521.3 0.746 525.0 0.751 0.00527
Jeremi Gonzalez 351.7 0.744 352.0 0.744 0.00067
Turk Wendell 152.8 0.742 155.0 0.752 0.01086
Wilson Alvarez 193.5 0.738 187.0 0.714 -0.02472
Lance Carter 180.9 0.735 183.0 0.744 0.00867
Ricky Stone 186.8 0.732 186.0 0.729 -0.00296
Rheal Cormier 168.4 0.732 177.0 0.770 0.03737
Rick Helling 348.0 0.726 338.0 0.706 -0.02086
Jerome Williams 284.7 0.726 280.0 0.714 -0.01187
Ryan Franklin 488.7 0.725 497.0 0.737 0.01235
Darrell May 482.7 0.724 493.0 0.739 0.01545
Julian Tavarez 200.9 0.723 197.0 0.709 -0.01409
Pat Hentgen 354.1 0.723 360.0 0.735 0.01201
Mark Mulder 404.8 0.720 397.0 0.706 -0.01380
Dan Wright 198.7 0.720 197.0 0.714 -0.00631
Shigetoshi Hasegawa 164.0 0.719 170.0 0.746 0.02613
Claudio Vargas 263.2 0.719 267.0 0.730 0.01033
Oscar Villarreal 206.2 0.718 204.0 0.711 -0.00751
Bartolo Colon 510.0 0.718 511.0 0.720 0.00142
Javier Vazquez 436.6 0.718 427.0 0.702 -0.01583
Kevin Appier 267.8 0.718 269.0 0.721 0.00316
Brian Lawrence 483.0 0.718 480.0 0.713 -0.00451
Hideo Nomo 428.4 0.718 439.0 0.735 0.01769
Jamie Moyer 483.8 0.717 488.0 0.723 0.00622
Aquilino Lopez 149.7 0.716 152.0 0.727 0.01091
Guillermo Mota 198.4 0.716 202.0 0.729 0.01309
Steve Kline 146.8 0.716 151.0 0.737 0.02053
Ron Villone 206.7 0.715 210.0 0.727 0.01130
Jarrod Washburn 470.0 0.715 482.0 0.734 0.01831
Russ Ortiz 457.8 0.715 470.0 0.734 0.01909
Tim Hudson 513.9 0.715 527.0 0.733 0.01820
Garrett Stephenson 395.9 0.715 408.0 0.736 0.02183
Brandon Webb 346.1 0.714 346.0 0.713 -0.00018
Steve Sparks 251.9 0.714 244.0 0.691 -0.02233
Jesus Colome 147.6 0.713 144.0 0.696 -0.01752
Matt Roney 236.7 0.713 239.0 0.720 0.00682
Jake Peavy 392.1 0.713 400.0 0.727 0.01434
Luther Hackman 176.8 0.713 169.0 0.681 -0.03145
Rick Reed 324.9 0.712 316.0 0.693 -0.01952
Matt Morris 370.1 0.712 373.0 0.717 0.00549
Tim Redding 402.0 0.712 396.0 0.701 -0.01070
Jon Garland 426.2 0.711 434.0 0.725 0.01307
Jesse Foppert 221.0 0.711 220.0 0.707 -0.00319
Kerry Wood 338.1 0.710 342.0 0.718 0.00813
Randy Wolf 399.7 0.710 402.0 0.714 0.00403
Steve Trachsel 462.7 0.710 469.0 0.719 0.00960
Jason Schmidt 387.5 0.710 403.0 0.738 0.02841
Tim Worrell 168.2 0.710 160.0 0.675 -0.03454
Roy Oswalt 253.2 0.709 251.0 0.703 -0.00603
Victor Zambrano 395.0 0.709 407.0 0.731 0.02162
Salomon Torres 259.4 0.709 255.0 0.697 -0.01197
Woody Williams 500.3 0.709 494.0 0.700 -0.00891
Johan Santana 289.7 0.708 293.0 0.716 0.00811
Mike Timlin 177.6 0.707 180.0 0.717 0.00971
Chris Spurling 179.6 0.707 180.0 0.709 0.00152
Carlos Silva 198.6 0.707 195.0 0.694 -0.01294
Adam Bernero 302.5 0.707 302.0 0.706 -0.00123
Sterling Hitchcock 189.4 0.707 185.0 0.690 -0.01630
Jose Lima 177.3 0.706 174.0 0.693 -0.01299
Brian Anderson 466.1 0.706 461.0 0.698 -0.00770
Kip Wells 409.2 0.706 421.0 0.726 0.02028
John Halama 265.1 0.705 264.0 0.702 -0.00305
Roger Clemens 423.7 0.705 419.0 0.697 -0.00781
Rob Bell 237.6 0.705 247.0 0.733 0.02801
Brian Meadows 191.0 0.705 184.0 0.679 -0.02582
Odalis Perez 391.1 0.705 381.0 0.686 -0.01828
LaTroy Hawkins 151.5 0.705 148.0 0.688 -0.01623
Kyle Lohse 452.9 0.704 454.0 0.706 0.00164
Matt Herges 161.3 0.704 160.0 0.699 -0.00562
Kevin Millwood 472.6 0.704 470.0 0.700 -0.00382
Juan Rincon 183.1 0.704 190.0 0.731 0.02651
Joaquin Benoit 209.7 0.704 218.0 0.732 0.02773
Dustin Hermanson 152.0 0.704 153.0 0.708 0.00453
Shawn Chacon 296.2 0.704 304.0 0.722 0.01851
Aaron Heilman 145.6 0.703 137.0 0.662 -0.04166
Eric DuBose 157.6 0.703 164.0 0.732 0.02868
Curt Schilling 300.3 0.703 296.0 0.693 -0.01013
Octavio Dotel 144.2 0.703 157.0 0.766 0.06265
Vicente Padilla 452.1 0.703 461.0 0.717 0.01379
Freddy Garcia 425.4 0.703 432.0 0.714 0.01093
Pedro Martinez 338.1 0.703 335.0 0.696 -0.00645
Ted Lilly 378.8 0.703 374.0 0.694 -0.00896
Byung-Hyun Kim 251.6 0.703 255.0 0.712 0.00950
Adam Eaton 384.4 0.703 388.0 0.709 0.00658
Jim Brower 209.4 0.703 214.0 0.718 0.01539
Jason Davis 373.5 0.702 373.0 0.701 -0.00086
Luis Ayala 151.6 0.702 154.0 0.713 0.01124
Jae Weong Seo 439.2 0.702 434.0 0.693 -0.00830
Rocky Biddle 154.2 0.701 154.0 0.700 -0.00112
Tim Wakefield 419.2 0.701 414.0 0.692 -0.00877
Kevin Brown 420.6 0.701 412.0 0.687 -0.01427
Danys Baez 151.3 0.700 157.0 0.727 0.02645
Felix Heredia 191.8 0.700 205.0 0.748 0.04822
Travis Harper 195.0 0.699 194.0 0.695 -0.00358
Kazuhisa Ishii 274.6 0.699 272.0 0.692 -0.00655
Sidney Ponson 476.5 0.699 482.0 0.707 0.00809
Gil Meche 390.5 0.699 401.0 0.717 0.01884
Brandon Duckworth 202.4 0.698 201.0 0.693 -0.00499
Rick White 140.3 0.698 135.0 0.672 -0.02645
Joel Pineiro 445.3 0.698 456.0 0.715 0.01683
D.J. Carrasco 170.3 0.698 166.0 0.680 -0.01755
Aaron Sele 288.2 0.698 287.0 0.695 -0.00296
Michael Tejera 175.9 0.698 173.0 0.687 -0.01134
Damian Moss 388.0 0.698 387.0 0.696 -0.00176
Al Levine 161.8 0.698 167.0 0.720 0.02222
Mark Redman 396.8 0.697 402.0 0.707 0.00912
Jeff Suppan 474.7 0.697 478.0 0.702 0.00479
Zach Day 307.4 0.697 309.0 0.701 0.00368
Nate Cornejo 499.7 0.697 487.0 0.679 -0.01766
Roy Halladay 557.5 0.697 558.0 0.698 0.00066
Kyle Snyder 202.8 0.697 206.0 0.708 0.01110
Runelvys Hernandez 206.9 0.697 213.0 0.717 0.02055
Matt Clement 394.2 0.696 408.0 0.721 0.02436
Brett Tomko 481.1 0.696 467.0 0.676 -0.02047
Chris Reitsma 184.5 0.696 184.0 0.694 -0.00174
Scot Shields 308.3 0.696 310.0 0.700 0.00387
Chad Bradford 151.0 0.696 153.0 0.705 0.00931
Wayne Franklin 427.1 0.696 437.0 0.712 0.01615
Wes Obermueller 158.5 0.695 153.0 0.671 -0.02430
Dave Weathers 178.5 0.695 170.0 0.661 -0.03321
Ismael Valdes 282.6 0.694 277.0 0.681 -0.01386
Esteban Loaiza 439.2 0.694 444.0 0.701 0.00755
Al Leiter 374.7 0.694 369.0 0.683 -0.01048
Jeremy Affeldt 263.5 0.693 261.0 0.687 -0.00662
Oliver Perez 232.3 0.693 226.0 0.675 -0.01872
Dontrelle Willis 313.3 0.693 316.0 0.699 0.00594
Carlos Zambrano 433.8 0.693 439.0 0.701 0.00828
Tom Glavine 428.2 0.693 428.0 0.693 -0.00040
Jorge Sosa 288.2 0.693 289.0 0.695 0.00204
Carl Pavano 441.7 0.692 447.0 0.701 0.00836
Terry Adams 143.3 0.692 138.0 0.667 -0.02539
Denny Stark 199.2 0.692 199.0 0.691 -0.00075
Brad Penny 409.5 0.691 414.0 0.698 0.00753
Josh Beckett 263.8 0.691 255.0 0.668 -0.02298
C.C. Sabathia 414.9 0.690 419.0 0.697 0.00682
Gary Knotts 225.0 0.690 221.0 0.678 -0.01240
Mike Mussina 411.4 0.690 419.0 0.703 0.01280
Ben Sheets 480.1 0.690 482.0 0.693 0.00276
Andy Ashby 171.7 0.690 164.0 0.659 -0.03110
Jeriome Robertson 358.6 0.690 355.0 0.683 -0.00693
Mike Hampton 427.9 0.689 432.0 0.696 0.00658
Mike DeJean 165.4 0.689 159.0 0.663 -0.02651
Aaron Cook 319.0 0.689 306.0 0.661 -0.02809
Terry Mulholland 236.2 0.689 239.0 0.697 0.00825
Jeff D'Amico 408.3 0.688 402.0 0.678 -0.01054
Jeff Weaver 390.0 0.687 361.0 0.636 -0.05102
Derek Lowe 464.1 0.687 469.0 0.694 0.00722
Paul Quantrill 156.4 0.686 166.0 0.728 0.04219
Darren Oliver 417.0 0.686 419.0 0.689 0.00328
Kirk Rueter 362.2 0.685 366.0 0.692 0.00723
Ramon Ortiz 422.2 0.684 422.0 0.684 -0.00027
Wade Miller 364.7 0.684 374.0 0.702 0.01752
Antonio Alfonseca 143.0 0.684 136.0 0.651 -0.03337
Jeff Fassero 168.3 0.684 167.0 0.679 -0.00516
Braden Looper 175.6 0.683 174.0 0.677 -0.00627
Livan Hernandez 474.9 0.683 486.0 0.699 0.01602
Matt Kinney 397.6 0.683 397.0 0.682 -0.00101
Leo Estrella 157.8 0.683 163.0 0.706 0.02256
Ricardo Rodriguez 185.7 0.683 193.0 0.710 0.02682
Wilfredo Ledezma 189.8 0.683 188.0 0.676 -0.00647
Horacio Ramirez 396.8 0.682 405.0 0.696 0.01415
Jason Simontacchi 287.6 0.682 287.0 0.680 -0.00147
Mike Maroth 455.2 0.681 456.0 0.683 0.00119
Danny Graves 410.7 0.681 420.0 0.697 0.01548
Brett Myers 408.3 0.680 405.0 0.675 -0.00548
R.A. Dickey 244.9 0.680 238.0 0.661 -0.01930
Kelvim Escobar 364.6 0.680 356.0 0.664 -0.01599
Greg Maddux 484.9 0.680 496.0 0.696 0.01562
Joe Kennedy 316.9 0.680 303.0 0.650 -0.02977
John Thomson 471.6 0.679 482.0 0.695 0.01504
Tomo Ohka 453.9 0.679 444.0 0.665 -0.01476
Jimmy Haynes 220.4 0.678 214.0 0.658 -0.01970
Casey Fossum 159.9 0.678 161.0 0.682 0.00446
John Lackey 424.9 0.678 425.0 0.678 0.00019
Miguel Batista 405.0 0.677 403.0 0.674 -0.00333
John Burkett 407.7 0.677 410.0 0.681 0.00384
Rodrigo Lopez 327.0 0.677 313.0 0.648 -0.02902
David Wells 498.1 0.677 508.0 0.690 0.01342
Kris Benson 240.9 0.677 233.0 0.654 -0.02221
Chris George 225.2 0.676 227.0 0.682 0.00534
Francisco Cordero 147.4 0.676 147.0 0.674 -0.00195
Joe Mays 312.4 0.676 320.0 0.693 0.01645
Mark Buehrle 521.1 0.676 529.0 0.686 0.01025
Mike Williams 141.9 0.676 145.0 0.690 0.01467
Aaron Harang 171.6 0.676 175.0 0.689 0.01336
Jason Jennings 397.0 0.675 388.0 0.660 -0.01532
Elmer Dessens 394.9 0.675 389.0 0.665 -0.01013
John Riedling 224.8 0.675 222.0 0.667 -0.00832
Kenny Rogers 439.7 0.674 441.0 0.676 0.00202
Mark Prior 366.8 0.674 364.0 0.669 -0.00520
Brad Radke 473.9 0.674 487.0 0.693 0.01860
Kevin Jarvis 212.3 0.674 213.0 0.676 0.00219
Gary Glover 142.8 0.674 139.0 0.656 -0.01815
Ben Weber 173.0 0.673 174.0 0.677 0.00388
Paul Wilson 374.0 0.673 380.0 0.683 0.01088
Justin Speier 143.3 0.673 147.0 0.690 0.01758
Andy Pettitte 432.8 0.672 418.0 0.649 -0.02294
Scott Linebrink 186.6 0.671 190.0 0.683 0.01208
Ryan Dempster 249.7 0.671 241.0 0.648 -0.02347
Jason Johnson 421.8 0.671 422.0 0.671 0.00035
Kris Wilson 168.3 0.670 167.0 0.665 -0.00505
T.J. Tucker 180.7 0.669 184.0 0.681 0.01220
Josh Fogg 323.2 0.669 332.0 0.687 0.01828
Cory Lidle 426.6 0.669 433.0 0.679 0.01002
Andrew Good 143.1 0.669 150.0 0.701 0.03242
Rich Harden 143.0 0.668 142.0 0.664 -0.00490
Tanyon Sturtze 197.6 0.665 199.0 0.670 0.00478
Tommy Phelps 136.4 0.665 137.0 0.668 0.00306
Shane Reynolds 364.8 0.663 374.0 0.680 0.01677
Jake Westbrook 295.0 0.663 306.0 0.688 0.02480
Jose Jimenez 252.4 0.662 243.0 0.638 -0.02461
Jeremy Bonderman 353.4 0.662 349.0 0.654 -0.00815
Randy Johnson 206.4 0.662 198.0 0.635 -0.02690
Billy Traber 234.6 0.661 233.0 0.656 -0.00461
Esteban Yan 140.7 0.661 139.0 0.653 -0.00797
Colby Lewis 269.0 0.659 268.0 0.657 -0.00237
Jason Grimsley 158.8 0.659 155.0 0.643 -0.01584
Doug Davis 237.3 0.657 244.0 0.676 0.01861
Aaron Fultz 134.2 0.655 137.0 0.668 0.01356
Shawn Estes 322.7 0.655 320.0 0.649 -0.00552
Mark Hendrickson 367.2 0.652 371.0 0.659 0.00682
Danny Haren 155.9 0.647 159.0 0.660 0.01285
Ramiro Mendoza 155.0 0.646 150.0 0.625 -0.02071
Mickey Callaway 135.5 0.645 131.0 0.624 -0.02120
Kurt Ainsworth 135.4 0.645 142.0 0.676 0.03155
Omar Daal 217.4 0.643 212.0 0.627 -0.01612
Todd Jones 142.1 0.632 136.0 0.604 -0.02729
Glendon Rusch 264.6 0.630 256.0 0.610 -0.02054

Posted by David Pinto at 10:43 PM | Defense | TrackBack (0)