Baseball Musings: Probabilistic Model of Range, Pitchers, 2007

November 25, 2007

Probabilistic Model of Range, Pitchers, 2007

To complete the survery of range, here are how pitchers rank. First the teams:

Team Pitchers PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only
Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Astros	4530	205	183.71	0.045	0.041	111.59
Padres	4476	243	228.50	0.054	0.051	106.35
Rockies	4599	218	206.59	0.047	0.045	105.52
Indians	4548	181	171.92	0.040	0.038	105.28
Mets	4362	173	164.61	0.040	0.038	105.09
White Sox	4545	196	186.52	0.043	0.041	105.08
Yankees	4511	181	172.92	0.040	0.038	104.67
Tigers	4486	167	159.73	0.037	0.036	104.55
Red Sox	4226	149	142.79	0.035	0.034	104.35
Mariners	4535	174	167.33	0.038	0.037	103.99
Blue Jays	4349	200	194.00	0.046	0.045	103.09
Phillies	4505	193	187.33	0.043	0.042	103.02
Pirates	4608	204	200.82	0.044	0.044	101.58
Cubs	4177	166	163.95	0.040	0.039	101.25
Rangers	4518	197	195.59	0.044	0.043	100.72
Braves	4404	206	204.60	0.047	0.046	100.69
Devil Rays	4378	148	147.07	0.034	0.034	100.63
Twins	4384	150	152.30	0.034	0.035	98.49
Orioles	4403	160	162.54	0.036	0.037	98.44
Nationals	4591	167	170.78	0.036	0.037	97.78
Marlins	4491	178	182.52	0.040	0.041	97.52
Angels	4325	143	146.86	0.033	0.034	97.37
Giants	4467	159	163.87	0.036	0.037	97.03
Diamondbacks	4351	207	213.40	0.048	0.049	97.00
Cardinals	4587	158	166.21	0.034	0.036	95.06
Athletics	4499	165	174.70	0.037	0.039	94.45
Brewers	4392	179	192.64	0.041	0.044	92.92
Dodgers	4310	189	205.96	0.044	0.048	91.76
Reds	4533	162	180.13	0.036	0.040	89.93
Royals	4528	151	179.20	0.033	0.040	84.27

The Padres not only induce the most predicted outs back to the pitcher, they exceed those outs by a great deal. Maddux is one reason:

Individual Pitcher PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (400 balls in play)
Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Chris Sampson	414	24	15.23	0.058	0.037	157.55
Matt Cain	571	26	19.79	0.046	0.035	131.37
Chad Durbin	417	15	11.48	0.036	0.028	130.65
Shaun Marcum	456	27	20.71	0.059	0.045	130.37
Steve Trachsel	549	35	26.89	0.064	0.049	130.17
Mike Mussina	512	27	20.84	0.053	0.041	129.54
Woody Williams	632	36	27.90	0.057	0.044	129.04
Aaron Cook	572	37	28.69	0.065	0.050	128.98
Miguel Batista	615	26	20.17	0.042	0.033	128.92
Jon Garland	705	34	26.84	0.048	0.038	126.66
Kelvim Escobar	572	17	13.58	0.030	0.024	125.21
Wandy Rodriguez	536	21	16.87	0.039	0.031	124.46
Greg Maddux	681	53	42.87	0.078	0.063	123.64
Ervin Santana	457	13	10.59	0.028	0.023	122.72
Jake Peavy	571	30	24.58	0.053	0.043	122.03
Brandon Webb	692	53	43.55	0.077	0.063	121.69
Mike Bacsik	414	15	12.35	0.036	0.030	121.42
Tim Wakefield	600	24	19.83	0.040	0.033	121.05
Carlos Zambrano	610	30	25.00	0.049	0.041	119.98
Javier Vazquez	583	28	23.46	0.048	0.040	119.34
Adam Eaton	525	22	18.49	0.042	0.035	119.00
Nate Robertson	573	27	22.77	0.047	0.040	118.56
John Danks	427	15	12.83	0.035	0.030	116.94
James Shields	615	26	22.26	0.042	0.036	116.80
Justin Verlander	577	17	14.69	0.029	0.025	115.76
Chien-Ming Wang	643	34	29.61	0.053	0.046	114.84
Carlos Silva	699	27	23.54	0.039	0.034	114.70
John Smoltz	586	30	26.16	0.051	0.045	114.69
Dustin McGowan	484	31	27.18	0.064	0.056	114.04
Justin Germano	426	21	18.42	0.049	0.043	114.04
Ted Lilly	586	24	21.09	0.041	0.036	113.81
Dontrelle Willis	667	39	34.32	0.058	0.051	113.64
Kyle Davies	432	16	14.08	0.037	0.033	113.60
Sergio Mitre	522	29	25.58	0.056	0.049	113.35
Daisuke Matsuzaka	555	24	21.21	0.043	0.038	113.18
Joe Blanton	750	28	25.10	0.037	0.033	111.54
Jake Westbrook	481	27	24.51	0.056	0.051	110.17
Andy Sonnanstine	408	14	12.81	0.034	0.031	109.28
Matt Chico	548	16	14.77	0.029	0.027	108.33
Jamie Moyer	633	30	27.83	0.047	0.044	107.81
Johan Santana	555	24	22.27	0.043	0.040	107.75
Tom Glavine	674	27	25.15	0.040	0.037	107.37
C.C. Sabathia	701	24	22.47	0.034	0.032	106.80
Brett Tomko	415	16	14.99	0.039	0.036	106.77
Jarrod Washburn	627	20	18.81	0.032	0.030	106.33
Noah Lowry	502	23	21.69	0.046	0.043	106.02
Jeremy Guthrie	527	21	19.85	0.040	0.038	105.81
Chris Capuano	456	28	26.47	0.061	0.058	105.77
Fausto Carmona	654	36	34.14	0.055	0.052	105.43
Roy Halladay	722	36	34.31	0.050	0.048	104.94
Mark Buehrle	648	33	31.47	0.051	0.049	104.86
Bronson Arroyo	661	27	25.79	0.041	0.039	104.71
David Bush	594	24	23.12	0.040	0.039	103.80
Kyle Kendrick	401	20	19.29	0.050	0.048	103.69
David Wells	545	20	19.32	0.037	0.035	103.52
Erik Bedard	431	17	16.46	0.039	0.038	103.29
Jeff Suppan	708	34	32.99	0.048	0.047	103.05
Barry Zito	608	21	20.40	0.035	0.034	102.94
Jason Marquis	626	25	24.34	0.040	0.039	102.70
Jeff Francis	662	30	29.40	0.045	0.044	102.04
Kameron Loe	464	28	27.74	0.060	0.060	100.93
Livan Hernandez	704	38	37.71	0.054	0.054	100.78
Paul Maholm	583	30	29.99	0.051	0.051	100.02
Matt Morris	693	28	28.14	0.040	0.041	99.50
Kip Wells	522	20	20.10	0.038	0.039	99.48
Ian Snell	606	20	20.14	0.033	0.033	99.33
Odalis Perez	494	18	18.33	0.036	0.037	98.20
John Maine	527	17	17.37	0.032	0.033	97.86
Cole Hamels	495	23	23.78	0.046	0.048	96.70
Chad Gaudin	603	21	21.76	0.035	0.036	96.51
A.J. Burnett	414	15	15.67	0.036	0.038	95.73
Mike Maroth	417	17	17.85	0.041	0.043	95.22
Tim Hudson	722	41	43.25	0.057	0.060	94.81
Felix Hernandez	567	26	27.45	0.046	0.048	94.73
Jered Weaver	514	18	19.04	0.035	0.037	94.51
Brian Bannister	540	20	21.19	0.037	0.039	94.40
Oliver Perez	483	11	11.65	0.023	0.024	94.40
Micah Owings	461	22	23.32	0.048	0.051	94.34
Kyle Lohse	615	22	23.48	0.036	0.038	93.71
Jeff Weaver	511	10	10.72	0.020	0.021	93.32
Chuck James	484	15	16.10	0.031	0.033	93.18
Tom Gorzelanny	642	24	25.76	0.037	0.040	93.18
Roy Oswalt	675	36	38.80	0.053	0.057	92.79
Adam Wainwright	654	28	30.29	0.043	0.046	92.44
Jose Contreras	647	22	23.80	0.034	0.037	92.43
Scott Kazmir	534	16	17.46	0.030	0.033	91.64
Lenny DiNardo	430	15	16.48	0.035	0.038	91.04
Derek Lowe	604	27	29.69	0.045	0.049	90.95
Andy Pettitte	690	26	28.59	0.038	0.041	90.93
Paul Byrd	686	21	23.15	0.031	0.034	90.72
Aaron Harang	642	23	25.44	0.036	0.040	90.42
Doug Davis	597	32	36.17	0.054	0.061	88.47
Scott Olsen	578	21	23.75	0.036	0.041	88.41
Josh Fogg	556	21	23.79	0.038	0.043	88.26
Scott Baker	454	13	14.84	0.029	0.033	87.58
Rich Hill	527	21	23.98	0.040	0.046	87.57
Brad Penny	643	25	28.93	0.039	0.045	86.41
Kevin Millwood	571	16	18.75	0.028	0.033	85.32
John Lackey	668	24	28.71	0.036	0.043	83.60
Braden Looper	581	19	23.06	0.033	0.040	82.41
Chad Billingsley	400	17	20.94	0.043	0.052	81.18
Josh Beckett	566	11	13.68	0.019	0.024	80.41
Vicente Padilla	407	12	15.11	0.029	0.037	79.44
Chris Young	448	11	14.27	0.025	0.032	77.08
Claudio Vargas	419	14	18.20	0.033	0.043	76.91
Edwin Jackson	516	12	15.91	0.023	0.031	75.43
Jeremy Bonderman	533	14	18.78	0.026	0.035	74.53
Boof Bonser	539	14	18.92	0.026	0.035	74.00
Jorge de la Rosa	431	11	15.32	0.026	0.036	71.79
Gil Meche	663	20	28.05	0.030	0.042	71.31
Julian Tavarez	455	11	15.86	0.024	0.035	69.38
Brad Thompson	451	10	14.58	0.022	0.032	68.61
Matt Belisle	570	15	22.66	0.026	0.040	66.18
Dan Haren	661	17	26.01	0.026	0.039	65.36
Daniel Cabrera	608	13	20.82	0.021	0.034	62.44
Ben Sheets	431	11	19.19	0.026	0.045	57.31
Curt Schilling	485	7	12.87	0.014	0.027	54.40

Peavy is also very good, however. Looking at Schilling's low ranking should give his opponents a clue as to his weakness next season. Bunting for hits against Curt might be a very good idea.

Posted by David Pinto at 07:26 PM | Defense • | Probabilistic Model of Range | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Bunting vs Fatso Schilling?

Hey, if only Clueless Joe had thought of that back in ought-four!

Posted by: Yankee Fan in Chicago at November 25, 2007 09:18 PM

Dave:
Is your data set up in a way that makes it possible for you to run DER for hitters? If so, it would be interesting to see what hitters' BABIP would be given average opposing fielders.

Posted by: Guy at November 26, 2007 07:47 AM

It is interesting to see Chris Sampson at the top of the list. Sampson originally was a shortstop in the Astros' minor league system. I watched many of his games, and he is one of the best fielding pitchers I have ever seen. 40 year old Woody Williams surprised me this year with his fielding ability. He also was a shortstop as a college player.

Posted by: CL Johnson at November 26, 2007 09:09 AM

Shawn Marcum used to be a shortstop in college... he has great instincts and comes off the mound ready to field. He started 6 double plays this year which I believe lead the league for pitchers. He's also never made an error in his young career.

Posted by: Andrew at November 26, 2007 03:54 PM