Baseball Musings: Probabilistic Model of Range, Firstbasemen, 2007

November 17, 2007

Probabilistic Model of Range, Firstbasemen, 2007

Here's a look at the range of first basemen. First, the team table. The Yankees at least did a good job of improving their defense at the position:

Team First Basemen PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only
Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Cardinals	4587	366	329.22	0.080	0.072	111.17
Yankees	4511	314	285.78	0.070	0.063	109.87
Giants	4467	325	304.72	0.073	0.068	106.66
Royals	4528	315	296.64	0.070	0.066	106.19
Padres	4476	311	295.59	0.069	0.066	105.21
Cubs	4177	283	269.44	0.068	0.065	105.03
Braves	4404	320	306.86	0.073	0.070	104.28
Angels	4325	308	296.32	0.071	0.069	103.94
Pirates	4608	315	304.66	0.068	0.066	103.39
Rockies	4599	336	326.21	0.073	0.071	103.00
Astros	4530	335	328.42	0.074	0.072	102.00
Red Sox	4226	323	321.65	0.076	0.076	100.42
Brewers	4392	294	293.80	0.067	0.067	100.07
Diamondbacks	4351	292	292.06	0.067	0.067	99.98
Devil Rays	4378	316	317.18	0.072	0.072	99.63
Blue Jays	4349	337	339.17	0.077	0.078	99.36
Orioles	4403	273	277.29	0.062	0.063	98.45
Athletics	4499	303	310.84	0.067	0.069	97.48
Dodgers	4310	285	293.60	0.066	0.068	97.07
Mariners	4535	297	308.37	0.065	0.068	96.31
Mets	4362	285	296.03	0.065	0.068	96.27
White Sox	4545	309	321.66	0.068	0.071	96.06
Indians	4548	295	307.96	0.065	0.068	95.79
Tigers	4486	296	310.16	0.066	0.069	95.44
Rangers	4518	283	297.18	0.063	0.066	95.23
Phillies	4505	302	317.82	0.067	0.071	95.02
Marlins	4491	291	307.52	0.065	0.068	94.63
Twins	4384	311	337.63	0.071	0.077	92.11
Reds	4533	263	290.87	0.058	0.064	90.42
Nationals	4591	270	299.99	0.059	0.065	90.00

It looks like the Nationals missed Nick Johnson's glove at first base. It's even more evident in the individual listing:

Individual First Basemen PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Doug Mientkiewicz	1427	109	92.24	0.076	0.065	118.17
Rich Aurilia	1115	70	59.31	0.063	0.053	118.02
Andy Phillips	1325	93	80.91	0.070	0.061	114.95
Albert Pujols	4220	349	308.82	0.083	0.073	113.01
Ryan Shealy	1336	88	78.66	0.066	0.059	111.87
Derrek Lee	3691	254	239.65	0.069	0.065	105.99
Casey Kotchman	3085	225	214.03	0.073	0.069	105.12
Adrian Gonzalez	4401	307	292.23	0.070	0.066	105.06
Tony Clark	1345	98	93.58	0.073	0.070	104.72
Scott Thorman	1859	126	120.75	0.068	0.065	104.35
Todd Helton	4170	306	293.61	0.073	0.070	104.22
Ryan Klesko	2504	190	183.08	0.076	0.073	103.78
Ben Broussard	1057	72	69.60	0.068	0.066	103.45
James Loney	2355	168	162.45	0.071	0.069	103.42
Ross Gload	2169	153	148.21	0.071	0.068	103.23
Carlos Pena	3708	277	268.41	0.075	0.072	103.20
Adam LaRoche	4141	283	274.52	0.068	0.066	103.09
Nick Swisher	1075	91	88.68	0.085	0.082	102.61
Kevin Youkilis	3208	253	249.42	0.079	0.078	101.44
Matt Stairs	1024	86	85.07	0.084	0.083	101.10
Lance Berkman	3315	229	229.22	0.069	0.069	99.91
Lyle Overbay	2887	221	221.32	0.077	0.077	99.86
Prince Fielder	4073	266	271.21	0.065	0.067	98.08
Conor Jackson	2647	173	176.80	0.065	0.067	97.85
Mark Teixeira	3404	240	246.41	0.071	0.072	97.40
Carlos Delgado	3649	244	251.39	0.067	0.069	97.06
Kevin Millar	2666	171	176.83	0.064	0.066	96.70
Robert Fick	1221	80	82.79	0.066	0.068	96.64
Aubrey Huff	1295	67	69.45	0.052	0.054	96.47
Ryan Howard	3871	263	274.29	0.068	0.071	95.88
Paul Konerko	3864	256	267.48	0.066	0.069	95.71
Richie Sexson	3137	201	210.24	0.064	0.067	95.61
Aaron Boone	1219	85	89.73	0.070	0.074	94.72
Brad Wilkerson	1444	82	86.94	0.057	0.060	94.32
Ryan Garko	3271	209	223.33	0.064	0.068	93.58
Sean Casey	3100	198	211.63	0.064	0.068	93.56
Dan Johnson	2679	166	177.43	0.062	0.066	93.56
Justin Morneau	3872	281	302.07	0.073	0.078	93.02
Mike Jacobs	2821	170	183.72	0.060	0.065	92.53
Jeff Conine	1595	86	94.78	0.054	0.059	90.74
Scott Hatteberg	2457	144	160.66	0.059	0.065	89.63
Nomar Garciaparra	1678	106	118.73	0.063	0.071	89.28
Dmitri Young	2808	162	184.81	0.058	0.066	87.66

Once again, Albert Pujols comes out on top among every day first basemen. If the Yankees had kept Miguel Cairo off first, they might have finished first as a team. Not only did Nomar not hit like a first baseman, he didn't even field well.

Correction: Cairo, not Cabrera.

Posted by David Pinto at 08:04 PM | Defense • | Probabilistic Model of Range | TrackBack (0)

Comments

When did the Yankees have the opportunity to play Miguel Cabrera at 1B?

Posted by: sabernar at November 18, 2007 07:02 AM

I'm assuming he means Cairo. Who, oddly enough, played 9 innings for the Cardinals (who did come in first) at first bast last year, and shouldn't ever play first base for anyone.

Considering he's a middle infielder, I'm surprised that he could cost them 6 plays in 140 innings there. Or would be mainly responsible.

Of course, he might not be talking about Cairo at all.

Posted by: haltz at November 18, 2007 08:52 AM

Ah, Cairo. Well, Betimet played some 1B last season for the NYY, and so did, probably Giambi. I'm sure they didn't help much at all. Oh yeah, Phelps played some, too, before being released. He was a butcher at 1B.

Posted by: sabernar at November 18, 2007 10:34 AM