January 24, 2005
Behind the Pitcher
Update: I have improved data for the models, so I've updated the tables in a new post. They are in the extended entry. The order changes a little, but not enough to make a big difference.
Something easy for me to do with the software I'm developing is to look at the defense behind particular pitchers with the Probabilistic Model of Range. The following chart lists every pitcher with at least 300 balls in play against him for a particular team.
Defense Behind Pitchers, 2004, ranked by difference between expected outs and actual outs.
| Pitcher | Team | InPlay | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | DER | Predicted DER | Difference |
| Curt Schilling | Red Sox | 642 | 455 | 426.88 | 0.709 | 0.665 | 0.04380 |
| Scott Elarton | Indians | 347 | 258 | 248.64 | 0.744 | 0.717 | 0.02697 |
| Al Leiter | Mets | 509 | 377 | 363.47 | 0.741 | 0.714 | 0.02659 |
| Zach Day | Expos | 373 | 267 | 257.87 | 0.716 | 0.691 | 0.02447 |
| Rob Bell | Devil Rays | 410 | 295 | 285.19 | 0.720 | 0.696 | 0.02394 |
| C.C. Sabathia | Indians | 549 | 390 | 377.24 | 0.710 | 0.687 | 0.02323 |
| Zack Z Greinke | Royals | 438 | 317 | 307.30 | 0.724 | 0.702 | 0.02215 |
| Brett Tomko | Giants | 634 | 446 | 432.18 | 0.703 | 0.682 | 0.02179 |
| Greg Maddux | Cubs | 643 | 456 | 442.04 | 0.709 | 0.687 | 0.02171 |
| Glendon Rusch | Cubs | 407 | 282 | 273.34 | 0.693 | 0.672 | 0.02127 |
| Jerome Williams | Giants | 404 | 290 | 282.65 | 0.718 | 0.700 | 0.01820 |
| Randy Johnson | Diamondbacks | 602 | 431 | 420.22 | 0.716 | 0.698 | 0.01791 |
| A.J. Burnett | Marlins | 326 | 231 | 225.40 | 0.709 | 0.691 | 0.01717 |
| Carl Pavano | Marlins | 694 | 491 | 479.15 | 0.707 | 0.690 | 0.01708 |
| Kevin Brown | Yankees | 416 | 295 | 287.94 | 0.709 | 0.692 | 0.01696 |
| Jake Westbrook | Indians | 694 | 491 | 479.59 | 0.707 | 0.691 | 0.01644 |
| Randy Wolf | Phillies | 434 | 305 | 298.08 | 0.703 | 0.687 | 0.01594 |
| Jason Schmidt | Giants | 556 | 406 | 397.23 | 0.730 | 0.714 | 0.01577 |
| Mark Buehrle | White Sox | 759 | 521 | 510.05 | 0.686 | 0.672 | 0.01443 |
| Ted Lilly | Blue Jays | 556 | 406 | 398.14 | 0.730 | 0.716 | 0.01414 |
| Jeff Suppan | Cardinals | 603 | 426 | 418.13 | 0.706 | 0.693 | 0.01305 |
| Kazuhisa Ishii | Dodgers | 527 | 389 | 382.15 | 0.738 | 0.725 | 0.01301 |
| Jae Seo | Mets | 389 | 269 | 263.95 | 0.692 | 0.679 | 0.01299 |
| Tom Glavine | Mets | 704 | 501 | 491.89 | 0.712 | 0.699 | 0.01294 |
| Kenny Rogers | Rangers | 708 | 472 | 462.89 | 0.667 | 0.654 | 0.01286 |
| Jeremy Bonderman | Tigers | 516 | 367 | 360.63 | 0.711 | 0.699 | 0.01235 |
| Jon Garland | White Sox | 696 | 499 | 490.75 | 0.717 | 0.705 | 0.01185 |
| Roger Clemens | Astros | 560 | 400 | 394.19 | 0.714 | 0.704 | 0.01038 |
| Mark Mulder | Athletics | 691 | 478 | 471.02 | 0.692 | 0.682 | 0.01010 |
| Victor Zambrano | Devil Rays | 354 | 254 | 250.58 | 0.718 | 0.708 | 0.00967 |
| Jose Lima | Dodgers | 540 | 389 | 383.87 | 0.720 | 0.711 | 0.00950 |
| Ryan Vogelsong | Pirates | 419 | 290 | 286.09 | 0.692 | 0.683 | 0.00933 |
| Mike Wood | Royals | 328 | 229 | 225.98 | 0.698 | 0.689 | 0.00921 |
| Odalis Perez | Dodgers | 586 | 429 | 423.97 | 0.732 | 0.723 | 0.00859 |
| Chris Carpenter | Cardinals | 524 | 370 | 365.58 | 0.706 | 0.698 | 0.00844 |
| David T Bush | Blue Jays | 306 | 219 | 216.51 | 0.716 | 0.708 | 0.00814 |
| Claudio Vargas | Expos | 344 | 247 | 244.36 | 0.718 | 0.710 | 0.00767 |
| Livan Hernandez | Expos | 747 | 531 | 525.55 | 0.711 | 0.704 | 0.00730 |
| Brian Lawrence | Padres | 660 | 452 | 447.32 | 0.685 | 0.678 | 0.00710 |
| Jimmy Gobble | Royals | 518 | 376 | 372.53 | 0.726 | 0.719 | 0.00669 |
| Matt Clement | Cubs | 473 | 332 | 329.05 | 0.702 | 0.696 | 0.00625 |
| John Halama | Devil Rays | 400 | 278 | 275.51 | 0.695 | 0.689 | 0.00623 |
| Miguel Batista | Blue Jays | 642 | 446 | 442.02 | 0.695 | 0.689 | 0.00620 |
| Wes Obermueller | Brewers | 410 | 284 | 281.50 | 0.693 | 0.687 | 0.00609 |
| Barry Zito | Athletics | 645 | 450 | 446.30 | 0.698 | 0.692 | 0.00574 |
| Roy Oswalt | Astros | 687 | 466 | 462.08 | 0.678 | 0.673 | 0.00571 |
| Carlos Zambrano | Cubs | 584 | 415 | 411.91 | 0.711 | 0.705 | 0.00528 |
| Mike Mussina | Yankees | 501 | 339 | 336.45 | 0.677 | 0.672 | 0.00508 |
| Brett Myers | Phillies | 563 | 391 | 388.33 | 0.694 | 0.690 | 0.00474 |
| Eric Milton | Phillies | 581 | 425 | 422.69 | 0.731 | 0.728 | 0.00398 |
| Sun-Woo Kim | Expos | 431 | 295 | 293.52 | 0.684 | 0.681 | 0.00344 |
| Jeff Weaver | Dodgers | 681 | 478 | 475.74 | 0.702 | 0.699 | 0.00332 |
| Jason Jennings | Rockies | 657 | 440 | 437.99 | 0.670 | 0.667 | 0.00306 |
| Steve Trachsel | Mets | 651 | 461 | 459.19 | 0.708 | 0.705 | 0.00278 |
| Pedro Martinez | Red Sox | 574 | 403 | 401.44 | 0.702 | 0.699 | 0.00272 |
| Russ Ortiz | Braves | 615 | 435 | 433.49 | 0.707 | 0.705 | 0.00245 |
| Ryan Drese | Rangers | 714 | 490 | 488.49 | 0.686 | 0.684 | 0.00212 |
| Doug Davis | Brewers | 614 | 424 | 422.86 | 0.691 | 0.689 | 0.00185 |
| David Wells | Padres | 658 | 466 | 465.05 | 0.708 | 0.707 | 0.00144 |
| Steve W Sparks | Diamondbacks | 419 | 287 | 286.78 | 0.685 | 0.684 | 0.00053 |
| Brian Anderson | Royals | 588 | 393 | 392.74 | 0.668 | 0.668 | 0.00044 |
| Javier Vazquez | Yankees | 595 | 425 | 424.76 | 0.714 | 0.714 | 0.00041 |
| Johan Santana | Twins | 529 | 392 | 391.84 | 0.741 | 0.741 | 0.00031 |
| Ryan Franklin | Mariners | 662 | 465 | 464.90 | 0.702 | 0.702 | 0.00015 |
| Josh Beckett | Marlins | 426 | 297 | 297.17 | 0.697 | 0.698 | -0.00040 |
| Ron Villone | Mariners | 349 | 249 | 249.22 | 0.713 | 0.714 | -0.00064 |
| Freddy Garcia | Mariners | 321 | 229 | 229.24 | 0.713 | 0.714 | -0.00076 |
| Bartolo Colon | Angels | 626 | 438 | 438.68 | 0.700 | 0.701 | -0.00109 |
| Brad Radke | Twins | 703 | 489 | 489.82 | 0.696 | 0.697 | -0.00116 |
| Adam Eaton | Padres | 605 | 418 | 418.71 | 0.691 | 0.692 | -0.00118 |
| Mark Hendrickson | Devil Rays | 641 | 438 | 439.18 | 0.683 | 0.685 | -0.00183 |
| Mike Hampton | Braves | 592 | 397 | 398.14 | 0.671 | 0.673 | -0.00193 |
| Daniel A Cabrera | Orioles | 480 | 344 | 344.98 | 0.717 | 0.719 | -0.00205 |
| John Thomson | Braves | 623 | 423 | 424.51 | 0.679 | 0.681 | -0.00242 |
| Matt Morris | Cardinals | 622 | 439 | 440.57 | 0.706 | 0.708 | -0.00253 |
| Gary Knotts | Tigers | 436 | 307 | 308.18 | 0.704 | 0.707 | -0.00272 |
| Kelvim Escobar | Angels | 583 | 407 | 408.66 | 0.698 | 0.701 | -0.00285 |
| Scott Schoeneweis | White Sox | 362 | 246 | 247.24 | 0.680 | 0.683 | -0.00343 |
| Jaret Wright | Braves | 538 | 372 | 374.02 | 0.691 | 0.695 | -0.00376 |
| Kirk Rueter | Giants | 695 | 479 | 482.29 | 0.689 | 0.694 | -0.00474 |
| Bronson Arroyo | Red Sox | 538 | 372 | 374.60 | 0.691 | 0.696 | -0.00483 |
| Jason Marquis | Cardinals | 630 | 432 | 435.37 | 0.686 | 0.691 | -0.00535 |
| Jake Peavy | Padres | 444 | 304 | 306.84 | 0.685 | 0.691 | -0.00640 |
| Dustin Hermanson | Giants | 398 | 277 | 279.68 | 0.696 | 0.703 | -0.00673 |
| Kerry Wood | Cubs | 373 | 256 | 258.70 | 0.686 | 0.694 | -0.00723 |
| Rodrigo Lopez | Orioles | 515 | 367 | 370.73 | 0.713 | 0.720 | -0.00724 |
| Shawn Estes | Rockies | 641 | 440 | 444.66 | 0.686 | 0.694 | -0.00726 |
| Josh Fogg | Pirates | 597 | 414 | 418.38 | 0.693 | 0.701 | -0.00733 |
| Ramon Ortiz | Angels | 401 | 275 | 277.99 | 0.686 | 0.693 | -0.00746 |
| Joel Pineiro | Mariners | 417 | 289 | 292.21 | 0.693 | 0.701 | -0.00770 |
| Jeff Fassero | Rockies | 388 | 257 | 260.08 | 0.662 | 0.670 | -0.00793 |
| Tim Hudson | Athletics | 625 | 428 | 433.09 | 0.685 | 0.693 | -0.00815 |
| Cliff Lee | Indians | 519 | 355 | 360.26 | 0.684 | 0.694 | -0.01014 |
| Ben Sheets | Brewers | 612 | 427 | 433.46 | 0.698 | 0.708 | -0.01055 |
| Paul Wilson | Reds | 584 | 414 | 420.20 | 0.709 | 0.720 | -0.01062 |
| Wilson Alvarez | Dodgers | 349 | 249 | 253.02 | 0.713 | 0.725 | -0.01151 |
| Kevin Millwood | Phillies | 430 | 286 | 291.48 | 0.665 | 0.678 | -0.01274 |
| Kip Wells | Pirates | 418 | 278 | 283.43 | 0.665 | 0.678 | -0.01299 |
| Tim Wakefield | Red Sox | 607 | 430 | 438.09 | 0.708 | 0.722 | -0.01333 |
| Joe Kennedy | Rockies | 496 | 342 | 348.77 | 0.690 | 0.703 | -0.01365 |
| Jarrod Washburn | Angels | 490 | 338 | 344.70 | 0.690 | 0.703 | -0.01367 |
| Jason Johnson | Tigers | 647 | 435 | 444.05 | 0.672 | 0.686 | -0.01399 |
| Brad Penny | Marlins | 388 | 270 | 275.45 | 0.696 | 0.710 | -0.01404 |
| Vicente Padilla | Phillies | 359 | 250 | 255.15 | 0.696 | 0.711 | -0.01434 |
| Esteban Loaiza | White Sox | 452 | 313 | 319.52 | 0.692 | 0.707 | -0.01444 |
| Jamie Moyer | Mariners | 644 | 463 | 472.34 | 0.719 | 0.733 | -0.01450 |
| Josh Towers | Blue Jays | 416 | 277 | 283.47 | 0.666 | 0.681 | -0.01554 |
| Paul Byrd | Braves | 364 | 252 | 257.85 | 0.692 | 0.708 | -0.01606 |
| Cory Lidle | Reds | 490 | 334 | 341.92 | 0.682 | 0.698 | -0.01617 |
| Rich Harden | Athletics | 536 | 372 | 380.66 | 0.694 | 0.710 | -0.01617 |
| Gil Meche | Mariners | 393 | 269 | 275.72 | 0.684 | 0.702 | -0.01709 |
| Aaron Harang | Reds | 500 | 342 | 350.77 | 0.684 | 0.702 | -0.01754 |
| Aaron Cook | Rockies | 340 | 233 | 239.32 | 0.685 | 0.704 | -0.01858 |
| Casey Fossum | Diamondbacks | 431 | 286 | 294.21 | 0.664 | 0.683 | -0.01904 |
| Woody Williams | Cardinals | 599 | 419 | 430.49 | 0.699 | 0.719 | -0.01919 |
| Kris Benson | Pirates | 424 | 288 | 296.26 | 0.679 | 0.699 | -0.01949 |
| Nate Robertson | Tigers | 596 | 399 | 410.66 | 0.669 | 0.689 | -0.01957 |
| Carlos Silva | Twins | 730 | 492 | 507.23 | 0.674 | 0.695 | -0.02087 |
| Ismael Valdez | Padres | 418 | 291 | 300.00 | 0.696 | 0.718 | -0.02154 |
| Oliver Perez | Pirates | 452 | 325 | 334.81 | 0.719 | 0.741 | -0.02171 |
| Mark Redman | Athletics | 627 | 428 | 441.82 | 0.683 | 0.705 | -0.02205 |
| Kyle Lohse | Twins | 660 | 438 | 453.31 | 0.664 | 0.687 | -0.02320 |
| Pete Munro | Astros | 335 | 223 | 230.84 | 0.666 | 0.689 | -0.02342 |
| Mike Maroth | Tigers | 729 | 495 | 512.31 | 0.679 | 0.703 | -0.02375 |
| Roy Halladay | Blue Jays | 413 | 280 | 290.16 | 0.678 | 0.703 | -0.02460 |
| Joaquin Benoit | Rangers | 302 | 205 | 212.71 | 0.679 | 0.704 | -0.02552 |
| Tim Redding | Astros | 346 | 227 | 236.00 | 0.656 | 0.682 | -0.02600 |
| Terry Mulholland | Twins | 434 | 283 | 294.44 | 0.652 | 0.678 | -0.02636 |
| Mark Prior | Cubs | 306 | 205 | 213.20 | 0.670 | 0.697 | -0.02679 |
| Dontrelle Willis | Marlins | 619 | 421 | 437.97 | 0.680 | 0.708 | -0.02741 |
| Jose Acevedo | Reds | 507 | 342 | 356.32 | 0.675 | 0.703 | -0.02825 |
| Brandon Webb | Diamondbacks | 622 | 420 | 437.90 | 0.675 | 0.704 | -0.02878 |
| Sidney Ponson | Orioles | 739 | 487 | 509.03 | 0.659 | 0.689 | -0.02981 |
| Dewon Brazelton | Devil Rays | 394 | 280 | 291.80 | 0.711 | 0.741 | -0.02994 |
| Victor Santos | Brewers | 487 | 327 | 341.94 | 0.671 | 0.702 | -0.03068 |
| Dennys Reyes | Royals | 327 | 214 | 224.24 | 0.654 | 0.686 | -0.03131 |
| R.A. Dickey | Rangers | 368 | 239 | 252.42 | 0.649 | 0.686 | -0.03648 |
| Todd Van Poppel | Reds | 371 | 253 | 266.85 | 0.682 | 0.719 | -0.03734 |
| Erik Bedard | Orioles | 421 | 278 | 293.99 | 0.660 | 0.698 | -0.03799 |
| John Lackey | Angels | 621 | 423 | 447.24 | 0.681 | 0.720 | -0.03903 |
| Derek Lowe | Red Sox | 640 | 410 | 435.55 | 0.641 | 0.681 | -0.03992 |
| Aaron Sele | Angels | 470 | 317 | 336.88 | 0.674 | 0.717 | -0.04229 |
| Jon Lieber | Yankees | 603 | 396 | 422.01 | 0.657 | 0.700 | -0.04314 |
| Darrell May | Royals | 615 | 407 | 434.05 | 0.662 | 0.706 | -0.04399 |
| Paul Quantrill | Yankees | 358 | 236 | 253.04 | 0.659 | 0.707 | -0.04759 |
| Jason Davis | Indians | 400 | 257 | 276.04 | 0.642 | 0.690 | -0.04760 |
The thing that struck me when I looked at this table was Curt Schilling at the top and Derek Lowe very close to the bottom. On the same team, with pretty much the same defense, Schilling received 28 more outs that expected (that's a whole nine innings worth of outs) and Lowe missed almost as many, -25. So what's going on? Here's a closer look at the pitchers on the Red Sox.
2004 Red Sox Pitchers, minimum 100 balls in play against.
| Pitcher | Team | InPlay | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | DER | Predicted DER | Difference |
| Curt Schilling | Red Sox | 642 | 455 | 426.88 | 0.709 | 0.665 | 0.04380 |
| Alan Embree | Red Sox | 161 | 114 | 107.24 | 0.708 | 0.666 | 0.04198 |
| Mike Timlin | Red Sox | 232 | 160 | 151.18 | 0.690 | 0.652 | 0.03800 |
| Keith Foulke | Red Sox | 225 | 166 | 160.98 | 0.738 | 0.715 | 0.02230 |
| Pedro Martinez | Red Sox | 574 | 403 | 401.44 | 0.702 | 0.699 | 0.00272 |
| Bronson Arroyo | Red Sox | 538 | 372 | 374.60 | 0.691 | 0.696 | -0.00483 |
| Tim Wakefield | Red Sox | 607 | 430 | 438.09 | 0.708 | 0.722 | -0.01333 |
| Derek Lowe | Red Sox | 640 | 410 | 435.55 | 0.641 | 0.681 | -0.03992 |
If there's a pattern here, I'm not sure what it is, except that Wakefield and Lowe had the lowest K per 9 in this group. What we really could be seeing is how pitchers effect the balls in play. It could simply be that the balls put into play against Schilling are easier to field than the balls put into play against Lowe! Voros McCracken's theory is that a pitcher has little to do with a ball in play being turned into an out. Tom Tippet found that that's not really the case, although the effect by the pitcher is small. (Links to both found here.) Maybe we've found a way to quantify that contribution.
Of course, it could be all luck. Lowe had a very positive number last year. Schilling was on the plus side, but only by about 6 outs in 2003. Looks like a whole new line of study is opening.
Posted by David Pinto at
06:23 PM
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Defense
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TrackBack (2)
Take those same Redsox pitchers and list Strike to Ball ratio. I bet you will find almost the same order. Fielders are on their toes when pitchers are throwing strikes.
Order of total walks (most to least):
Lowe
Wakefield
Martinez
Arroyo
Schilling
ESPN does not have strike to ball ratio but that stat would allow you te evaluate the relief pitchers in this group.
I don't think its that tough to figure out - Lowe and Wakefield had the highest groundball ratios, Shilling, Foulke Pedro and Embree the lowest. With the exception of the time they had Orlando Cabrera, they were a very below average fielding infield (Mark Bellhorn? Nomar? Millar?)
I don't think it's as simple as GB:FB rate. As a Rays fan, Bell finished with the 5th best defense, and he had a strong GB rate. Yet Brazelton finished near the bottom, and he had a flyball rate with an outfield with nice range.
Plus the theory of defenders on their toes playing better - Vic Zambrano had 4 more actual outs than predicted. And I promise, after watching him pitch plenty, his games are torture on defenders because of all the walks and hbp's.
Well, we think that the outfield had good range. Crawford was awesome in left but Cruz was rated badly by BP and UZR (-7). Baldelli is rated a little above average by BP but his 2004 UZR was -15 (an improvement over 2003's -24) so it's possible that he wasn't what we thought, though I certainly wouldn't blindly trust UZR any more than I would BP's Fielding Runs.
I think GB/FB does have a lot to do with Wakefield and Lowe's problems. Mueller and Millar were fine but out of their regular middle infielders (Pokey, Cabrera, Nomar, and Bellhorn), Pokey was the only one worth anything defensively.
At a glance it looks like a lot of the pitchers I think can pick a little are high on the list, while the ones who can't are near the bottom-- are the pitchers' own fielding performances being left out somehow? Or perhaps the impact poor fielding pitchers have on their infielders positioning is showing up?
Well, he isn't on the list, but when you picture (for example) a ball in pay against Mariano Rivera what do you imagine? I imagine these jammed poppers to deep second and short. Why? Because they seem to happen every other play. I'd bet that Schilling is more likely to get players to hit the ball off balance, jam them, out in front, etc.. Rivera works much in the same way so I'd expect a good number for him.
It can't be just strikes as suggested by Levi or Lieber wouldn't be echelons below the other Yankees. Lieber threw strikes. Obviously this varies by infield v. outfield defense, groundball v. flyball pitcher, strikeout v. in play pitcher, etc..
Well, for a counting process (like actual outs), the standard deviation is the square root of the number, when the number is bigger than about 30. So, with about 400 outs, the standard deviation is about 20. That makes Schilling about 1.5 SD lucky, and Lowe about 1.25 SD unlucky. I'd say it's hard to attribute those differences to some underlying cause, based on a 1 SD result.
Well, 2.75 SD is actually a pretty big gap. It can be the difference between a league average pitcher and a Cy Young (in terms of runs saved).
The field is a really big place, areawise. I'm not a big believer in DIPS, but you have to acknowledge that there is going to be some randomness to where balls fall and whether a fielder "just happens" to be in range. This randomness, in my mind, can tilt the numbers over a year or even more, due to sample sizes.
On the other hand, simple physics tells us a ball that is hit hard will be more likely to land safely than a ball hit softly - in more cases than not. this is where I reject DIPS - I don't buy that all pitchers get hit equally hard when the ball is in play, and this is the presumption I think you have to make to fully endorse DIPS.
So I do think trends will manifest over time to some extent, but I also think this is more like dissecting a football play (was the runner good? Or was the blocking good? etc) where there are so many intertwining factors - any given hit can be due to defensive incompetence, luck or hitting the ball hard.
This is one area where numbers alone will fall short without more. To make a full and accurate judgment you would need somebody with some expertise to rate every hit ball individually. For pitching assessments, a "hard hit ball ratio" regardless of actual result. For defense, every ball rated for catchability, and a caught/should be caught ratio, along with a caught/"catchable but difficult" ratio. Sounds easy.