Baseball Musings: Behind the Pitcher

January 24, 2005

Behind the Pitcher

Update: I have improved data for the models, so I've updated the tables in a new post. They are in the extended entry. The order changes a little, but not enough to make a big difference.

Something easy for me to do with the software I'm developing is to look at the defense behind particular pitchers with the Probabilistic Model of Range. The following chart lists every pitcher with at least 300 balls in play against him for a particular team.

Defense Behind Pitchers, 2004, ranked by difference between expected outs and actual outs.
Pitcher	Team	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Curt Schilling	Red Sox	642	455	426.88	0.709	0.665	0.04380
Scott Elarton	Indians	347	258	248.64	0.744	0.717	0.02697
Al Leiter	Mets	509	377	363.47	0.741	0.714	0.02659
Zach Day	Expos	373	267	257.87	0.716	0.691	0.02447
Rob Bell	Devil Rays	410	295	285.19	0.720	0.696	0.02394
C.C. Sabathia	Indians	549	390	377.24	0.710	0.687	0.02323
Zack Z Greinke	Royals	438	317	307.30	0.724	0.702	0.02215
Brett Tomko	Giants	634	446	432.18	0.703	0.682	0.02179
Greg Maddux	Cubs	643	456	442.04	0.709	0.687	0.02171
Glendon Rusch	Cubs	407	282	273.34	0.693	0.672	0.02127
Jerome Williams	Giants	404	290	282.65	0.718	0.700	0.01820
Randy Johnson	Diamondbacks	602	431	420.22	0.716	0.698	0.01791
A.J. Burnett	Marlins	326	231	225.40	0.709	0.691	0.01717
Carl Pavano	Marlins	694	491	479.15	0.707	0.690	0.01708
Kevin Brown	Yankees	416	295	287.94	0.709	0.692	0.01696
Jake Westbrook	Indians	694	491	479.59	0.707	0.691	0.01644
Randy Wolf	Phillies	434	305	298.08	0.703	0.687	0.01594
Jason Schmidt	Giants	556	406	397.23	0.730	0.714	0.01577
Mark Buehrle	White Sox	759	521	510.05	0.686	0.672	0.01443
Ted Lilly	Blue Jays	556	406	398.14	0.730	0.716	0.01414
Jeff Suppan	Cardinals	603	426	418.13	0.706	0.693	0.01305
Kazuhisa Ishii	Dodgers	527	389	382.15	0.738	0.725	0.01301
Jae Seo	Mets	389	269	263.95	0.692	0.679	0.01299
Tom Glavine	Mets	704	501	491.89	0.712	0.699	0.01294
Kenny Rogers	Rangers	708	472	462.89	0.667	0.654	0.01286
Jeremy Bonderman	Tigers	516	367	360.63	0.711	0.699	0.01235
Jon Garland	White Sox	696	499	490.75	0.717	0.705	0.01185
Roger Clemens	Astros	560	400	394.19	0.714	0.704	0.01038
Mark Mulder	Athletics	691	478	471.02	0.692	0.682	0.01010
Victor Zambrano	Devil Rays	354	254	250.58	0.718	0.708	0.00967
Jose Lima	Dodgers	540	389	383.87	0.720	0.711	0.00950
Ryan Vogelsong	Pirates	419	290	286.09	0.692	0.683	0.00933
Mike Wood	Royals	328	229	225.98	0.698	0.689	0.00921
Odalis Perez	Dodgers	586	429	423.97	0.732	0.723	0.00859
Chris Carpenter	Cardinals	524	370	365.58	0.706	0.698	0.00844
David T Bush	Blue Jays	306	219	216.51	0.716	0.708	0.00814
Claudio Vargas	Expos	344	247	244.36	0.718	0.710	0.00767
Livan Hernandez	Expos	747	531	525.55	0.711	0.704	0.00730
Brian Lawrence	Padres	660	452	447.32	0.685	0.678	0.00710
Jimmy Gobble	Royals	518	376	372.53	0.726	0.719	0.00669
Matt Clement	Cubs	473	332	329.05	0.702	0.696	0.00625
John Halama	Devil Rays	400	278	275.51	0.695	0.689	0.00623
Miguel Batista	Blue Jays	642	446	442.02	0.695	0.689	0.00620
Wes Obermueller	Brewers	410	284	281.50	0.693	0.687	0.00609
Barry Zito	Athletics	645	450	446.30	0.698	0.692	0.00574
Roy Oswalt	Astros	687	466	462.08	0.678	0.673	0.00571
Carlos Zambrano	Cubs	584	415	411.91	0.711	0.705	0.00528
Mike Mussina	Yankees	501	339	336.45	0.677	0.672	0.00508
Brett Myers	Phillies	563	391	388.33	0.694	0.690	0.00474
Eric Milton	Phillies	581	425	422.69	0.731	0.728	0.00398
Sun-Woo Kim	Expos	431	295	293.52	0.684	0.681	0.00344
Jeff Weaver	Dodgers	681	478	475.74	0.702	0.699	0.00332
Jason Jennings	Rockies	657	440	437.99	0.670	0.667	0.00306
Steve Trachsel	Mets	651	461	459.19	0.708	0.705	0.00278
Pedro Martinez	Red Sox	574	403	401.44	0.702	0.699	0.00272
Russ Ortiz	Braves	615	435	433.49	0.707	0.705	0.00245
Ryan Drese	Rangers	714	490	488.49	0.686	0.684	0.00212
Doug Davis	Brewers	614	424	422.86	0.691	0.689	0.00185
David Wells	Padres	658	466	465.05	0.708	0.707	0.00144
Steve W Sparks	Diamondbacks	419	287	286.78	0.685	0.684	0.00053
Brian Anderson	Royals	588	393	392.74	0.668	0.668	0.00044
Javier Vazquez	Yankees	595	425	424.76	0.714	0.714	0.00041
Johan Santana	Twins	529	392	391.84	0.741	0.741	0.00031
Ryan Franklin	Mariners	662	465	464.90	0.702	0.702	0.00015
Josh Beckett	Marlins	426	297	297.17	0.697	0.698	-0.00040
Ron Villone	Mariners	349	249	249.22	0.713	0.714	-0.00064
Freddy Garcia	Mariners	321	229	229.24	0.713	0.714	-0.00076
Bartolo Colon	Angels	626	438	438.68	0.700	0.701	-0.00109
Brad Radke	Twins	703	489	489.82	0.696	0.697	-0.00116
Adam Eaton	Padres	605	418	418.71	0.691	0.692	-0.00118
Mark Hendrickson	Devil Rays	641	438	439.18	0.683	0.685	-0.00183
Mike Hampton	Braves	592	397	398.14	0.671	0.673	-0.00193
Daniel A Cabrera	Orioles	480	344	344.98	0.717	0.719	-0.00205
John Thomson	Braves	623	423	424.51	0.679	0.681	-0.00242
Matt Morris	Cardinals	622	439	440.57	0.706	0.708	-0.00253
Gary Knotts	Tigers	436	307	308.18	0.704	0.707	-0.00272
Kelvim Escobar	Angels	583	407	408.66	0.698	0.701	-0.00285
Scott Schoeneweis	White Sox	362	246	247.24	0.680	0.683	-0.00343
Jaret Wright	Braves	538	372	374.02	0.691	0.695	-0.00376
Kirk Rueter	Giants	695	479	482.29	0.689	0.694	-0.00474
Bronson Arroyo	Red Sox	538	372	374.60	0.691	0.696	-0.00483
Jason Marquis	Cardinals	630	432	435.37	0.686	0.691	-0.00535
Jake Peavy	Padres	444	304	306.84	0.685	0.691	-0.00640
Dustin Hermanson	Giants	398	277	279.68	0.696	0.703	-0.00673
Kerry Wood	Cubs	373	256	258.70	0.686	0.694	-0.00723
Rodrigo Lopez	Orioles	515	367	370.73	0.713	0.720	-0.00724
Shawn Estes	Rockies	641	440	444.66	0.686	0.694	-0.00726
Josh Fogg	Pirates	597	414	418.38	0.693	0.701	-0.00733
Ramon Ortiz	Angels	401	275	277.99	0.686	0.693	-0.00746
Joel Pineiro	Mariners	417	289	292.21	0.693	0.701	-0.00770
Jeff Fassero	Rockies	388	257	260.08	0.662	0.670	-0.00793
Tim Hudson	Athletics	625	428	433.09	0.685	0.693	-0.00815
Cliff Lee	Indians	519	355	360.26	0.684	0.694	-0.01014
Ben Sheets	Brewers	612	427	433.46	0.698	0.708	-0.01055
Paul Wilson	Reds	584	414	420.20	0.709	0.720	-0.01062
Wilson Alvarez	Dodgers	349	249	253.02	0.713	0.725	-0.01151
Kevin Millwood	Phillies	430	286	291.48	0.665	0.678	-0.01274
Kip Wells	Pirates	418	278	283.43	0.665	0.678	-0.01299
Tim Wakefield	Red Sox	607	430	438.09	0.708	0.722	-0.01333
Joe Kennedy	Rockies	496	342	348.77	0.690	0.703	-0.01365
Jarrod Washburn	Angels	490	338	344.70	0.690	0.703	-0.01367
Jason Johnson	Tigers	647	435	444.05	0.672	0.686	-0.01399
Brad Penny	Marlins	388	270	275.45	0.696	0.710	-0.01404
Vicente Padilla	Phillies	359	250	255.15	0.696	0.711	-0.01434
Esteban Loaiza	White Sox	452	313	319.52	0.692	0.707	-0.01444
Jamie Moyer	Mariners	644	463	472.34	0.719	0.733	-0.01450
Josh Towers	Blue Jays	416	277	283.47	0.666	0.681	-0.01554
Paul Byrd	Braves	364	252	257.85	0.692	0.708	-0.01606
Cory Lidle	Reds	490	334	341.92	0.682	0.698	-0.01617
Rich Harden	Athletics	536	372	380.66	0.694	0.710	-0.01617
Gil Meche	Mariners	393	269	275.72	0.684	0.702	-0.01709
Aaron Harang	Reds	500	342	350.77	0.684	0.702	-0.01754
Aaron Cook	Rockies	340	233	239.32	0.685	0.704	-0.01858
Casey Fossum	Diamondbacks	431	286	294.21	0.664	0.683	-0.01904
Woody Williams	Cardinals	599	419	430.49	0.699	0.719	-0.01919
Kris Benson	Pirates	424	288	296.26	0.679	0.699	-0.01949
Nate Robertson	Tigers	596	399	410.66	0.669	0.689	-0.01957
Carlos Silva	Twins	730	492	507.23	0.674	0.695	-0.02087
Ismael Valdez	Padres	418	291	300.00	0.696	0.718	-0.02154
Oliver Perez	Pirates	452	325	334.81	0.719	0.741	-0.02171
Mark Redman	Athletics	627	428	441.82	0.683	0.705	-0.02205
Kyle Lohse	Twins	660	438	453.31	0.664	0.687	-0.02320
Pete Munro	Astros	335	223	230.84	0.666	0.689	-0.02342
Mike Maroth	Tigers	729	495	512.31	0.679	0.703	-0.02375
Roy Halladay	Blue Jays	413	280	290.16	0.678	0.703	-0.02460
Joaquin Benoit	Rangers	302	205	212.71	0.679	0.704	-0.02552
Tim Redding	Astros	346	227	236.00	0.656	0.682	-0.02600
Terry Mulholland	Twins	434	283	294.44	0.652	0.678	-0.02636
Mark Prior	Cubs	306	205	213.20	0.670	0.697	-0.02679
Dontrelle Willis	Marlins	619	421	437.97	0.680	0.708	-0.02741
Jose Acevedo	Reds	507	342	356.32	0.675	0.703	-0.02825
Brandon Webb	Diamondbacks	622	420	437.90	0.675	0.704	-0.02878
Sidney Ponson	Orioles	739	487	509.03	0.659	0.689	-0.02981
Dewon Brazelton	Devil Rays	394	280	291.80	0.711	0.741	-0.02994
Victor Santos	Brewers	487	327	341.94	0.671	0.702	-0.03068
Dennys Reyes	Royals	327	214	224.24	0.654	0.686	-0.03131
R.A. Dickey	Rangers	368	239	252.42	0.649	0.686	-0.03648
Todd Van Poppel	Reds	371	253	266.85	0.682	0.719	-0.03734
Erik Bedard	Orioles	421	278	293.99	0.660	0.698	-0.03799
John Lackey	Angels	621	423	447.24	0.681	0.720	-0.03903
Derek Lowe	Red Sox	640	410	435.55	0.641	0.681	-0.03992
Aaron Sele	Angels	470	317	336.88	0.674	0.717	-0.04229
Jon Lieber	Yankees	603	396	422.01	0.657	0.700	-0.04314
Darrell May	Royals	615	407	434.05	0.662	0.706	-0.04399
Paul Quantrill	Yankees	358	236	253.04	0.659	0.707	-0.04759
Jason Davis	Indians	400	257	276.04	0.642	0.690	-0.04760

The thing that struck me when I looked at this table was Curt Schilling at the top and Derek Lowe very close to the bottom. On the same team, with pretty much the same defense, Schilling received 28 more outs that expected (that's a whole nine innings worth of outs) and Lowe missed almost as many, -25. So what's going on? Here's a closer look at the pitchers on the Red Sox.

2004 Red Sox Pitchers, minimum 100 balls in play against.
Pitcher	Team	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Curt Schilling	Red Sox	642	455	426.88	0.709	0.665	0.04380
Alan Embree	Red Sox	161	114	107.24	0.708	0.666	0.04198
Mike Timlin	Red Sox	232	160	151.18	0.690	0.652	0.03800
Keith Foulke	Red Sox	225	166	160.98	0.738	0.715	0.02230
Pedro Martinez	Red Sox	574	403	401.44	0.702	0.699	0.00272
Bronson Arroyo	Red Sox	538	372	374.60	0.691	0.696	-0.00483
Tim Wakefield	Red Sox	607	430	438.09	0.708	0.722	-0.01333
Derek Lowe	Red Sox	640	410	435.55	0.641	0.681	-0.03992

If there's a pattern here, I'm not sure what it is, except that Wakefield and Lowe had the lowest K per 9 in this group. What we really could be seeing is how pitchers effect the balls in play. It could simply be that the balls put into play against Schilling are easier to field than the balls put into play against Lowe! Voros McCracken's theory is that a pitcher has little to do with a ball in play being turned into an out. Tom Tippet found that that's not really the case, although the effect by the pitcher is small. (Links to both found here.) Maybe we've found a way to quantify that contribution.

Of course, it could be all luck. Lowe had a very positive number last year. Schilling was on the plus side, but only by about 6 outs in 2003. Looks like a whole new line of study is opening.

Posted by David Pinto at 06:23 PM | Defense | TrackBack (2)

Comments

Take those same Redsox pitchers and list Strike to Ball ratio. I bet you will find almost the same order. Fielders are on their toes when pitchers are throwing strikes.

Order of total walks (most to least):
Lowe
Wakefield
Martinez
Arroyo
Schilling

ESPN does not have strike to ball ratio but that stat would allow you te evaluate the relief pitchers in this group.

Posted by: Levi at January 24, 2005 09:03 PM

I don't think its that tough to figure out - Lowe and Wakefield had the highest groundball ratios, Shilling, Foulke Pedro and Embree the lowest. With the exception of the time they had Orlando Cabrera, they were a very below average fielding infield (Mark Bellhorn? Nomar? Millar?)

Posted by: Marc Shiman at January 24, 2005 10:02 PM

I don't think it's as simple as GB:FB rate. As a Rays fan, Bell finished with the 5th best defense, and he had a strong GB rate. Yet Brazelton finished near the bottom, and he had a flyball rate with an outfield with nice range.

Plus the theory of defenders on their toes playing better - Vic Zambrano had 4 more actual outs than predicted. And I promise, after watching him pitch plenty, his games are torture on defenders because of all the walks and hbp's.

Posted by: Jay at January 24, 2005 11:24 PM

Well, we think that the outfield had good range. Crawford was awesome in left but Cruz was rated badly by BP and UZR (-7). Baldelli is rated a little above average by BP but his 2004 UZR was -15 (an improvement over 2003's -24) so it's possible that he wasn't what we thought, though I certainly wouldn't blindly trust UZR any more than I would BP's Fielding Runs.

I think GB/FB does have a lot to do with Wakefield and Lowe's problems. Mueller and Millar were fine but out of their regular middle infielders (Pokey, Cabrera, Nomar, and Bellhorn), Pokey was the only one worth anything defensively.

Posted by: Jim Wisinski at January 25, 2005 01:31 AM

At a glance it looks like a lot of the pitchers I think can pick a little are high on the list, while the ones who can't are near the bottom-- are the pitchers' own fielding performances being left out somehow? Or perhaps the impact poor fielding pitchers have on their infielders positioning is showing up?

Posted by: john swinney at January 25, 2005 03:43 AM

Well, he isn't on the list, but when you picture (for example) a ball in pay against Mariano Rivera what do you imagine? I imagine these jammed poppers to deep second and short. Why? Because they seem to happen every other play. I'd bet that Schilling is more likely to get players to hit the ball off balance, jam them, out in front, etc.. Rivera works much in the same way so I'd expect a good number for him.

It can't be just strikes as suggested by Levi or Lieber wouldn't be echelons below the other Yankees. Lieber threw strikes. Obviously this varies by infield v. outfield defense, groundball v. flyball pitcher, strikeout v. in play pitcher, etc..

Posted by: seamus at January 25, 2005 10:53 AM

Here is a link to an ESPN article on walk per innings. while Leiter and Schilling are on both lists I didn't see anyone else proving my earlier point wrong.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=schwarz_alan&id=1974099

Posted by: Levi at January 25, 2005 10:15 PM

Well, for a counting process (like actual outs), the standard deviation is the square root of the number, when the number is bigger than about 30. So, with about 400 outs, the standard deviation is about 20. That makes Schilling about 1.5 SD lucky, and Lowe about 1.25 SD unlucky. I'd say it's hard to attribute those differences to some underlying cause, based on a 1 SD result.

Posted by: gauss at January 25, 2005 10:18 PM

Well, 2.75 SD is actually a pretty big gap. It can be the difference between a league average pitcher and a Cy Young (in terms of runs saved).

Posted by: PitchingWins at January 25, 2005 10:42 PM

The field is a really big place, areawise. I'm not a big believer in DIPS, but you have to acknowledge that there is going to be some randomness to where balls fall and whether a fielder "just happens" to be in range. This randomness, in my mind, can tilt the numbers over a year or even more, due to sample sizes.

On the other hand, simple physics tells us a ball that is hit hard will be more likely to land safely than a ball hit softly - in more cases than not. this is where I reject DIPS - I don't buy that all pitchers get hit equally hard when the ball is in play, and this is the presumption I think you have to make to fully endorse DIPS.

So I do think trends will manifest over time to some extent, but I also think this is more like dissecting a football play (was the runner good? Or was the blocking good? etc) where there are so many intertwining factors - any given hit can be due to defensive incompetence, luck or hitting the ball hard.

This is one area where numbers alone will fall short without more. To make a full and accurate judgment you would need somebody with some expertise to rate every hit ball individually. For pitching assessments, a "hard hit ball ratio" regardless of actual result. For defense, every ball rated for catchability, and a caught/should be caught ratio, along with a caught/"catchable but difficult" ratio. Sounds easy.

Posted by: Gary at January 31, 2005 10:23 AM

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Lookout Landing A Seattle Mariners blog.

Sons of Bart Brush A blog about the Harvard baseball team.

Base Blogging A resource for sports and baseball bloggers.

Three True Outcomes A group blog by on major league baseball.

Cardinals Diaspora A blog for Cardinals fans living away from St. Louis.

Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke? A Pittsburgh fan chronicles life in the Grand Canyon.

Brew Crew Ball A blog about the Milwaukee Brewers.

Getting Paid to Watch Posts by a former trainer for the NY Mets.

The Gas House Gang An historical St. Louis Cardinals Blog.

6-4-2 An Angels/Dodgers double play blog.

El Guapo's Ghost Rambles on about the Red Sox Baseball and the Red Sox.

Baseball Etc

Tiger Tales A Detroit Tigers web log.

The Baseball Card Blog A blog about baseball cards.

Sox1Fan A Red Sox blog.

Out of Left Field Another Red Sox blog.

New York Yankees Update A Yankees blog with lots of photos.

Liberty Ball A current and historical Phillies blog.

Crawfish Boxes A Houston Astros blog.

MLB Rumors Clearinghouse News from around the majors.

Roar From 34 A group blog about the Orioles.

Blogging Baseball All-time baseball highlights and real-time commentary.

Rubber Arm A group blog about major league baseball.

Fenway Nation More news about the Red Sox.

Rays of Light A Devil Rays blog.

Fantasy Baseball Chronicle Information for fantasy players.

American Legends A sports blog.

Duffy's Cliff An interactive Red Sox site, featuring a lexicon of the Red Sox.

Oriole Post - The World of Baseball and Beyond An Orioles blog.

DRays Bay A Devil Rays blog.

Mets Heads A blog about the New York Mets.

The Soul of Baseball Joe Posnanski promotes his book on Buck O'Neil and blogs about baseball.

My Baseball Bias A blog about East Coast baseball.

Sports Business Radio Articles and talk about the business of sports.

The Game of Baseball A blog about Major League Baseball.

Baseball Hot Corner Opinionated observations for the thinking fan.

FantasyDope.com Fantasy baseball news.

Peter's Red Sox Forever A Red Sox blog.

Sox Nest Commentary on the Red Sox.

The Big Oz A Florida Marlins blog.

Baseball Reflections Where old school baseball meets sabermetrics.