Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
November 15, 2007
Probabilistic Model of Range, Rightfielders, 2007

The following table presents probabilistic model of range data for team rightfielders:

Team Rightfielders PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Phillies 4505 363 328.75 0.081 0.073 110.42
Rangers 4518 341 317.30 0.075 0.070 107.47
Yankees 4511 341 328.36 0.076 0.073 103.85
Royals 4528 410 397.12 0.091 0.088 103.24
Nationals 4591 392 381.19 0.085 0.083 102.84
Indians 4548 313 304.41 0.069 0.067 102.82
Marlins 4491 379 368.66 0.084 0.082 102.81
Astros 4530 360 354.55 0.079 0.078 101.54
Brewers 4392 393 387.42 0.089 0.088 101.44
Diamondbacks 4351 336 331.82 0.077 0.076 101.26
Athletics 4499 330 327.02 0.073 0.073 100.91
Blue Jays 4349 281 278.50 0.065 0.064 100.90
Cubs 4177 303 301.51 0.073 0.072 100.50
Angels 4325 311 310.00 0.072 0.072 100.32
Padres 4476 331 331.59 0.074 0.074 99.82
Twins 4384 306 307.17 0.070 0.070 99.62
Tigers 4486 318 319.88 0.071 0.071 99.41
Red Sox 4226 287 289.46 0.068 0.068 99.15
Mets 4362 340 343.80 0.078 0.079 98.89
Orioles 4403 314 317.86 0.071 0.072 98.79
Braves 4404 331 336.45 0.075 0.076 98.38
Devil Rays 4378 309 314.27 0.071 0.072 98.32
Reds 4533 377 384.09 0.083 0.085 98.15
Pirates 4608 312 319.06 0.068 0.069 97.79
Cardinals 4587 316 323.36 0.069 0.070 97.72
White Sox 4545 345 354.49 0.076 0.078 97.32
Dodgers 4310 317 326.76 0.074 0.076 97.01
Giants 4467 338 349.14 0.076 0.078 96.81
Mariners 4535 305 323.57 0.067 0.071 94.26
Rockies 4599 296 316.91 0.064 0.069 93.40

As shown below, Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino made quite the dynamic duo in rightfield for the Phillies. My uncle Anthony will not be happy with this list, however. He's a Yankees season ticket holder and he loves to tell me how much Bobby Abreu is afraid of the wall. It looks like he's still getting to lots of balls.

Individual Rightfielder PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Jayson Werth 1389 109 95.35 0.078 0.069 114.32
Shane Victorino 2837 229 210.62 0.081 0.074 108.72
Nick Swisher 1289 109 101.65 0.085 0.079 107.23
Carlos Quentin 1718 138 129.11 0.080 0.075 106.89
Franklin Gutierrez 1757 136 128.55 0.077 0.073 105.79
Nelson Cruz 1922 148 141.26 0.077 0.073 104.77
Luke Scott 2560 198 190.34 0.077 0.074 104.02
Bobby Abreu 4148 313 302.45 0.075 0.073 103.49
Corey Hart 2641 253 246.33 0.096 0.093 102.71
Austin Kearns 4356 375 366.16 0.086 0.084 102.41
Mark Teahen 3663 318 311.33 0.087 0.085 102.14
Alex Rios 3730 243 240.17 0.065 0.064 101.18
Travis Buck 1561 110 109.03 0.070 0.070 100.89
Jeremy Hermida 3035 247 245.88 0.081 0.081 100.46
Randy Winn 2686 209 208.12 0.078 0.077 100.42
Delmon Young 3463 252 251.16 0.073 0.073 100.33
Trot Nixon 2140 129 129.17 0.060 0.060 99.86
Michael Cuddyer 3749 256 256.95 0.068 0.069 99.63
Nick Markakis 4279 303 306.74 0.071 0.072 98.78
Magglio Ordonez 3835 261 264.54 0.068 0.069 98.66
Jeff Francoeur 4356 328 333.45 0.075 0.077 98.37
Jermaine Dye 3682 284 289.80 0.077 0.079 98.00
Shawn Green 2771 203 207.55 0.073 0.075 97.81
Vladimir Guerrero 2819 208 213.12 0.074 0.076 97.60
Matt Kemp 1851 129 132.50 0.070 0.072 97.36
Brian Giles 3199 216 223.54 0.068 0.070 96.63
J.D. Drew 3128 212 219.98 0.068 0.070 96.37
Ken Griffey Jr. 3649 291 302.61 0.080 0.083 96.16
Andre Ethier 2315 177 184.39 0.076 0.080 95.99
Xavier Nady 2390 162 168.97 0.068 0.071 95.88
Jose Guillen 4063 268 284.73 0.066 0.070 94.13
Juan Encarnacion 1983 125 132.90 0.063 0.067 94.06
Jack Cust 1205 79 84.93 0.066 0.070 93.01
Brad Hawpe 3851 247 267.07 0.064 0.069 92.48
Cliff Floyd 1185 69 78.30 0.058 0.066 88.12

Mark Teahen did a much better job of adjusting to rightfield than Ken Griffey, Jr. Of course, Junior is old and slow, and with all the injuries might be better off as a DH in AL at this point.


Posted by David Pinto at 04:04 PM | Defense • | Probabilistic Model of Range | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Interesting that Nady was very below average, whereas the Pirates were slightly below. Does that mean that Doumit was above average in RF? Or were Pearce/McLouth/Bautista just totally awesome?

Posted by: Russ at November 15, 2007 05:04 PM

Re: your Uncle Anthony's ragging on Abreu...

The two most important factors in outfield range are speed and the ability to accurately track fly balls. Willingness to crash into a wall is way down the list.

There's also a big downside to fearlessness: the chance of a severe injury. Aaron Rowand's faceplant made everyone's highlight reel, but what was really more valuable -- that one catch, or the loss of Rowand's services while he recuperated from injury? Fred Lynn and Kirk Gibson were absolutely fearless in the outfield, and probably shortened their careers in the process. In 1962, Al Kaline was having a great season when he dived for a short flyball and broke his collarbone. He was out of the lineup for almost a month.

I'm not saying there are no grounds to criticize Bobby Abreu. I'm just saying there are two sides to fearlessness in baseball, and something to be said for self-preservation in a sport where you play every single day.

Posted by: jvwalt at November 15, 2007 05:06 PM

Of course your uncle Anthony won't be happy, he's a Yankees season ticket holder.

Posted by: Ben at November 15, 2007 05:29 PM

Any chance you'd post Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel's numbers, or would the sample sizes be too small for it to be useful?

Posted by: SleepyCA at November 15, 2007 07:49 PM

You're not going to get a lot of Phillies phans to agree that Werth was better than Victorino in RF. Maybe Werth gets better jumps or takes better routes; I'm not a great judge of those things. But Victorino is a lot faster and seemed more reliable actually making the play, and has a stronger arm.

Posted by: Jay B. at November 15, 2007 09:54 PM

The sample for Werth is small. That could easily lead to a bit of luck taking over.

Posted by: David Pinto at November 15, 2007 10:08 PM

For what it's Werth, Jayson came up as a catcher.

I've only seen Abreu in one game and I have to say that his instincts seemed impeccable. He seemed to set up right when the ball hit the bat and as I recall handled a chance or two off the wall (in Camden Yards pretty well.)

Of course the other right fielder I saw that day seemed to display similar instincts. But Nick Markakis is much further down the list.

I guess I wouldn't make a good scout.

Posted by: soccer dad at November 16, 2007 06:53 AM

I'm still shocked at how a guy with Trot Nixon's build can be an average outfielder. He looks like every guy sitting on his couch watching football with a bowl of nachos in one hand and an empty six-pack by his feet. Remarkable.

Posted by: Mike at November 16, 2007 08:46 AM

FWIW, Shane Victorino rated as the best RF, according to the Fans. (Werth was a bit over average.)

It will be a shock if he doesn't play CF if Rowand is gone.

Posted by: tangotiger at November 16, 2007 09:34 AM

Even better than Victorino's range is Victorino's arm. If you had a ratio for that, it might approach 500.

As always David, thanks so much for the PMR work, it's good stuff.

Posted by: Tom G, ballssticksstuff.com at November 17, 2007 02:30 PM
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