Baseball Musings: Three for Two

June 15, 2004

Three for Two

The sports section of my local paper, The Republican, had this column by Garry Brown entitled "Pokey's the (Glove) Man." In it, Brown argues that Youkilis should be benched, Bellhorn should be playing third and Reese should be the everyday second baseman.

Before a national television audience Sunday night, Pokey Reese's performance made one thing perfectly clear: He should be the everyday second baseman for the Boston Red Sox.

Reese drew a standing ovation for his defense, but that's not his only game. He also delivered a two-run double. He's batting .264 with 24 RBIs, nice production for the last man in the lineup.

Red Sox manager Terry Francona has indicated that he wants to use a "rotation" in order to give playing time to deserving infielders. Mainly, that rotation would involve Reese and Mark Bellhorn at second base, Bellhorn and rookie Kevin Youkilis at third. Under the Francona plan, Reese also would get some time at shortstop if and when Nomar Garciaparra needs a day off.

After Sunday's game, though, it seemed obvious that Francona had his best available infield on the diamond as the Red Sox defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 4-1. The key move was using Bellhorn at third and sending Youkilis to the bench. The kid called "You" has done an excellent job since being recalled from Triple A to replaced the disabled Bill Mueller, but the Sox likely would be better served by having both Reese and Bellhorn on the field every day.

Is that indeed the best combination for the Red Sox? Let's look at the win shares, shall we?

Through June 10	Bellhorn	Youkilis	Reese
Games	55	21	55
Batting Win Shares	6.4	2.9	1.4
Fielding Win Shares	1.9	0.6	2.0
Total Win Shares	8	3	3

The two things I see from this data is that Youkilis is generating wins at twice the rate of Pokey Reese. When you're in second, 3 1/2 games back, generating wins is the most important thing to do! The second thing I see is that Reese and Bellhorn are about even in defense. Reese should be ahead due to the fact that he's been playing short most of the year, which gives you a bonus in win shares. So the fact that they're that close tells me that Bellhorn has been doing a good job at 2nd base.

Right now, the lineup that will give the Red Sox the best chance of winning has Youkilis at third and Bellhorn at 2nd. Use Pokey when Lowe pitches or as a late inning defensive replacement. But don't start him everyday just because he makes a spectacular play once in a while.

Posted by David Pinto at 09:09 AM | Defense | TrackBack (0)

Comments

You say that Reese and Bellhorn are about even in defense (as measured by win shares) which considering Reese gets a bonus for playing shortstop must mean that Bellhourn is doing a good job.

Reese is playing out of position but still leading the AL shortstops in Zone Rating according to the ESPN.com statistics. However, what really matters is Reese's defense at 2B versus Bellhorn's at 2B. Reese only has 18 innings in 2004 but if we compare Reese's 2003 statistics to Bellhorn's 2004 statistics, then Reese has a higher zone rating than Bellhorn, a much higher range factor (6.4 to 4.6) and over 50% more double plays per 9 innings played. Some of those raw differences are overstated because Pittsburgh last year had more baserunners and more balls in play than Boston this year, but the evidence still says that Reese is demonstrably a better second baseman than Bellhorn. Reese generated 5.91 win shares per 1000 IP at 2B in 2003. Bellhorn generated 2.55 win shares per 1000 IP at 2B in 2003. So far in 2004 (through June 10), Bellhorn has improved to 4.06 win shares per 1000 IP at 2B.

I agree with your conclusion David (unless Youkilis cools off in which case he'd be optioned back to AAA and Bellhorn would claim the third base spot until Mueller comes back) but I think you oversold Bellhorn's fielding: it's not on a par with Reese's fielding even if we want to ignore that subjective impressions that Reese is a better fielder and look just at the statistics.

Posted by: Michael at June 15, 2004 10:25 AM

Bellhorn is an interesting character, because his fielding numbers don't correspond to how fans see him on the field. Pokey Reese however has an excellent match between how the fans see him, and how his numbers stack up.

Specifically, the fans see about a 30 run difference in their fielding (Bellhorn is seen as average or below in all facets of fielding) while Reese is highly regarded. However, UZR, coming into 2004, sees only a 10 run advantage for Reese. Reese is of course a terrible hitter.

Trying to leverage Reese's fielding with a GB pitcher on the mound certainly is one of the good choices available.

Posted by: tangotiger at June 15, 2004 10:35 AM

Michael, I agree with you, and probably should have included that. However, although Reese is a second baseman, I've heard his natural position is shortstop, so I don't really think he's playing out of position there. There is no doubt in my mind that Pokey is the better defensive second baseman. But Bellhorn is okay, and his offense more than makes up for his defense.

Posted by: David Pinto at June 15, 2004 10:53 AM

I totally agree with David on this one. Reese is a great 2B, but Bellhorn is decent. But look at their Batting Win Shares: Bellhorn leads Reese 6.4 to 1.4. That's a BIG difference in Win Shares. Stretch that over a full season and it becomes a HUGE difference. Will Pokey save a few more runs in the field that Bellhorn? Of course he will, but he'll also make a HELLUVA lot more outs at the plate. Pokey has a .299 OBP and a .374 SLG. OUCH! He's in Rivas territory! Meanwhile, Bellhorn has a .394 OBP (~.100 higher!!!) and a .424 SLG (~.050 higher!!!). That is a LOT of offensive difference.

Posted by: s at June 15, 2004 11:37 AM

Win Shares? More like White Shares! Can anyone still say with a straight face that sabermetrics isn't inherently racist?

Posted by: The Ghost of Ralph Wiley at June 15, 2004 03:33 PM

Sabermetrics isn't inherently racist.

Quote from Bill James: "If you cut Rickey Henderson in half, you'd have two hall of famers".

Most Win Shares of the 80's: Rickey Henderson with 289.

Most Win Shares of the 90's: Barry Bonds with 351 (three out of the top 5 are African American: Bonds, Frank Thomas, and Griffey).

I mean, you can't be serious?

Posted by: Dave S. at June 15, 2004 04:57 PM

Reading the guy's name, it looks like that was supposed to be a cheap jab at Ralph Wiley.

Posted by: Dan at June 15, 2004 07:09 PM

well, bellhorn is ok average? with zone rating, if i understand correctly. What about double plays this year? doesn't youkilis have a low der and uzr? how do you think nomar will do coming off that long, long rehab in the field? don't you want at least one out of three above average fielder out there even if he doesn't get on base as well?

Posted by: lisa gray at June 15, 2004 09:30 PM

Not only should Kevin Youkilis play, but he is the GREEK GOD OF WALKS FROM MONEYBALL!!! HASN'T ANYONE SEEN THE TROJAN WAR THIS SUMMER??? ZEUS WILL STRIKE US DOWN WITH THUNDERBOLTS IF HE ISN'T ALLOWED TO PLAY!!!

--Art "Son of Hercules" Kyriazis

Posted by: Art Kyriazis at June 17, 2004 12:41 AM