Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
November 12, 2003
Probabilistic Model of Range, Team Positions

Like Bill James did with defensive win shares, I'm working top down. I started with overall team range, looking at DER compared to predicted DER. Now, I'm breaking each team down by position, so you'll be able to see where each organization has a weakness in range. There are 30 charts below, one for each team:

Position, 2003 AngelsExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 152.7 0.034 142.0 0.032 -0.00242
Catcher 44.6 0.010 45.0 0.010 0.00008
First Base 312.2 0.070 306.0 0.069 -0.00139
Second Base 555.6 0.125 573.0 0.129 0.00392
Third Base 356.0 0.080 342.0 0.077 -0.00317
Shortstop 501.5 0.113 503.0 0.114 0.00033
Left Field 371.5 0.084 380.0 0.086 0.00192
Center Field 465.4 0.105 480.0 0.108 0.00329
Right Field 333.3 0.075 337.0 0.076 0.00083
Angels Fielding by Position
Position, 2003 AstrosExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 208.7 0.049 201.0 0.047 -0.00182
Catcher 58.0 0.014 66.0 0.016 0.00189
First Base 294.0 0.069 288.0 0.068 -0.00142
Second Base 518.0 0.122 514.0 0.121 -0.00094
Third Base 368.8 0.087 392.0 0.093 0.00547
Shortstop 555.8 0.131 562.0 0.133 0.00146
Left Field 270.7 0.064 276.0 0.065 0.00124
Center Field 356.2 0.084 350.0 0.083 -0.00147
Right Field 325.3 0.077 332.0 0.078 0.00159
Astros Fielding by Position
Position, 2003 AthleticsExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 213.6 0.049 227.0 0.052 0.00307
Catcher 49.8 0.011 51.0 0.012 0.00027
First Base 306.2 0.070 284.0 0.065 -0.00509
Second Base 573.9 0.131 603.0 0.138 0.00666
Third Base 474.3 0.108 470.0 0.108 -0.00099
Shortstop 575.2 0.132 562.0 0.129 -0.00302
Left Field 275.3 0.063 262.0 0.060 -0.00304
Center Field 346.1 0.079 347.0 0.079 0.00020
Right Field 308.3 0.071 306.0 0.070 -0.00053
Athletics Fielding by Position
Position, 2003 Blue JaysExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 200.3 0.044 200.0 0.044 -0.00006
Catcher 34.3 0.008 30.0 0.007 -0.00094
First Base 353.7 0.078 348.0 0.076 -0.00125
Second Base 630.3 0.138 650.0 0.143 0.00432
Third Base 386.6 0.085 377.0 0.083 -0.00211
Shortstop 522.9 0.115 539.0 0.118 0.00353
Left Field 310.3 0.068 317.0 0.070 0.00148
Center Field 394.8 0.087 392.0 0.086 -0.00061
Right Field 258.9 0.057 253.0 0.055 -0.00130
Blue Jays Fielding by Position
Position, 2003 BravesExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 261.5 0.058 267.0 0.059 0.00122
Catcher 42.3 0.009 38.0 0.008 -0.00095
First Base 263.2 0.058 267.0 0.059 0.00083
Second Base 591.3 0.131 606.0 0.134 0.00325
Third Base 429.2 0.095 438.0 0.097 0.00195
Shortstop 542.3 0.120 561.0 0.124 0.00415
Left Field 246.8 0.055 237.0 0.052 -0.00217
Center Field 392.0 0.087 416.0 0.092 0.00532
Right Field 340.4 0.075 320.0 0.071 -0.00451
Braves Fielding by Position
Position, 2003 BrewersExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 203.0 0.044 194.0 0.042 -0.00197
Catcher 62.8 0.014 70.0 0.015 0.00157
First Base 348.6 0.076 346.0 0.076 -0.00057
Second Base 499.6 0.109 494.0 0.108 -0.00123
Third Base 392.9 0.086 383.0 0.084 -0.00216
Shortstop 534.3 0.117 530.0 0.116 -0.00095
Left Field 292.0 0.064 294.0 0.064 0.00045
Center Field 422.5 0.092 436.0 0.095 0.00296
Right Field 369.7 0.081 376.0 0.082 0.00137
Brewers Fielding by Position
Position, 2003 CardinalsExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 198.2 0.043 200.0 0.043 0.00039
Catcher 52.9 0.011 52.0 0.011 -0.00019
First Base 334.3 0.072 336.0 0.073 0.00036
Second Base 542.3 0.117 536.0 0.116 -0.00137
Third Base 412.7 0.089 409.0 0.088 -0.00079
Shortstop 534.6 0.116 527.0 0.114 -0.00164
Left Field 319.2 0.069 326.0 0.071 0.00146
Center Field 466.5 0.101 455.0 0.098 -0.00249
Right Field 384.5 0.083 388.0 0.084 0.00075
Cardinals Fielding by Position
Position, 2003 CubsExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 200.5 0.050 205.0 0.051 0.00112
Catcher 53.0 0.013 53.0 0.013 -0.00000
First Base 288.2 0.072 285.0 0.071 -0.00079
Second Base 471.4 0.118 472.0 0.118 0.00016
Third Base 377.6 0.095 373.0 0.093 -0.00116
Shortstop 523.4 0.131 527.0 0.132 0.00089
Left Field 239.8 0.060 240.0 0.060 0.00005
Center Field 336.0 0.084 330.0 0.083 -0.00149
Right Field 263.8 0.066 274.0 0.069 0.00256
Cubs Fielding by Position
Position, 2003 Devil RaysExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 152.0 0.034 127.0 0.028 -0.00552
Catcher 42.2 0.009 42.0 0.009 -0.00005
First Base 354.1 0.078 384.0 0.085 0.00659
Second Base 498.8 0.110 486.0 0.107 -0.00282
Third Base 408.7 0.090 416.0 0.092 0.00161
Shortstop 526.5 0.116 556.0 0.123 0.00651
Left Field 385.5 0.085 397.0 0.088 0.00255
Center Field 480.8 0.106 474.0 0.105 -0.00151
Right Field 330.6 0.073 322.0 0.071 -0.00190
Devil Rays Fielding by Position
Position, 2003 DiamondbacksExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 218.2 0.052 205.0 0.049 -0.00316
Catcher 48.6 0.012 47.0 0.011 -0.00039
First Base 339.7 0.081 337.0 0.080 -0.00064
Second Base 521.2 0.124 531.0 0.127 0.00235
Third Base 420.7 0.100 422.0 0.101 0.00032
Shortstop 488.2 0.117 484.0 0.116 -0.00100
Left Field 257.5 0.061 260.0 0.062 0.00061
Center Field 343.0 0.082 328.0 0.078 -0.00359
Right Field 270.0 0.064 274.0 0.065 0.00095
Diamondbacks Fielding by Position
Position, 2003 DodgersExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 228.7 0.057 235.0 0.058 0.00156
Catcher 60.5 0.015 67.0 0.017 0.00161
First Base 263.0 0.065 258.0 0.064 -0.00125
Second Base 491.8 0.122 490.0 0.122 -0.00044
Third Base 406.9 0.101 414.0 0.103 0.00177
Shortstop 543.8 0.135 540.0 0.134 -0.00095
Left Field 226.1 0.056 224.0 0.056 -0.00053
Center Field 329.5 0.082 330.0 0.082 0.00012
Right Field 297.2 0.074 270.0 0.067 -0.00675
Dodgers Fielding by Position
Position, 2003 ExposExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 224.1 0.051 229.0 0.052 0.00112
Catcher 44.1 0.010 47.0 0.011 0.00065
First Base 299.8 0.068 291.0 0.066 -0.00198
Second Base 526.5 0.119 512.0 0.116 -0.00328
Third Base 430.3 0.097 427.0 0.096 -0.00074
Shortstop 512.6 0.116 535.0 0.121 0.00505
Left Field 309.0 0.070 327.0 0.074 0.00407
Center Field 391.0 0.088 379.0 0.086 -0.00271
Right Field 319.9 0.072 319.0 0.072 -0.00021
Expos Fielding by Position
Position, 2003 GiantsExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 189.2 0.043 184.0 0.042 -0.00120
Catcher 54.8 0.013 57.0 0.013 0.00050
First Base 298.6 0.069 306.0 0.070 0.00169
Second Base 557.5 0.128 547.0 0.125 -0.00242
Third Base 369.6 0.085 384.0 0.088 0.00331
Shortstop 516.3 0.118 512.0 0.117 -0.00099
Left Field 327.4 0.075 340.0 0.078 0.00289
Center Field 421.9 0.097 409.0 0.094 -0.00295
Right Field 333.5 0.077 352.0 0.081 0.00425
Giants Fielding by Position
Position, 2003 IndiansExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 190.2 0.042 192.0 0.042 0.00039
Catcher 54.0 0.012 64.0 0.014 0.00218
First Base 318.9 0.070 313.0 0.068 -0.00129
Second Base 518.8 0.114 533.0 0.117 0.00310
Third Base 408.6 0.089 427.0 0.093 0.00403
Shortstop 592.0 0.130 579.0 0.127 -0.00284
Left Field 353.6 0.077 356.0 0.078 0.00052
Center Field 410.6 0.090 413.0 0.090 0.00054
Right Field 308.7 0.068 313.0 0.068 0.00095
Indians Fielding by Position
Position, 2003 MarinersExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 156.8 0.036 150.0 0.035 -0.00156
Catcher 46.7 0.011 40.0 0.009 -0.00154
First Base 334.4 0.077 346.0 0.080 0.00268
Second Base 484.9 0.112 469.0 0.108 -0.00368
Third Base 358.9 0.083 374.0 0.086 0.00350
Shortstop 476.3 0.110 487.0 0.112 0.00246
Left Field 354.4 0.082 358.0 0.083 0.00082
Center Field 526.2 0.122 544.0 0.126 0.00410
Right Field 344.0 0.079 352.0 0.081 0.00184
Mariners Fielding by Position
Position, 2003 MarlinsExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 189.0 0.044 174.0 0.040 -0.00346
Catcher 40.4 0.009 39.0 0.009 -0.00033
First Base 293.2 0.068 308.0 0.071 0.00341
Second Base 505.4 0.117 511.0 0.118 0.00128
Third Base 394.6 0.091 393.0 0.091 -0.00038
Shortstop 518.0 0.120 513.0 0.118 -0.00116
Left Field 304.9 0.070 301.0 0.069 -0.00091
Center Field 407.8 0.094 406.0 0.094 -0.00042
Right Field 347.3 0.080 354.0 0.082 0.00155
Marlins Fielding by Position
Position, 2003 MetsExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 210.1 0.047 221.0 0.049 0.00243
Catcher 51.7 0.011 43.0 0.010 -0.00194
First Base 259.7 0.058 256.0 0.057 -0.00082
Second Base 479.4 0.106 455.0 0.101 -0.00542
Third Base 428.5 0.095 407.0 0.090 -0.00476
Shortstop 595.7 0.132 591.0 0.131 -0.00104
Left Field 322.9 0.072 329.0 0.073 0.00135
Center Field 453.4 0.101 458.0 0.102 0.00101
Right Field 338.8 0.075 339.0 0.075 0.00004
Mets Fielding by Position
Position, 2003 OriolesExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 202.0 0.044 180.0 0.039 -0.00481
Catcher 60.6 0.013 67.0 0.015 0.00139
First Base 330.6 0.072 331.0 0.072 0.00010
Second Base 523.5 0.114 557.0 0.122 0.00730
Third Base 382.1 0.083 382.0 0.083 -0.00002
Shortstop 513.5 0.112 496.0 0.108 -0.00381
Left Field 343.9 0.075 338.0 0.074 -0.00129
Center Field 453.4 0.099 461.0 0.101 0.00167
Right Field 344.5 0.075 320.0 0.070 -0.00533
Orioles Fielding by Position
Position, 2003 PadresExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 217.5 0.050 221.0 0.051 0.00081
Catcher 50.1 0.012 52.0 0.012 0.00045
First Base 299.6 0.069 305.0 0.070 0.00124
Second Base 512.4 0.118 514.0 0.119 0.00038
Third Base 405.4 0.094 398.0 0.092 -0.00170
Shortstop 514.3 0.119 497.0 0.115 -0.00400
Left Field 303.6 0.070 300.0 0.069 -0.00083
Center Field 405.3 0.094 420.0 0.097 0.00340
Right Field 308.5 0.071 302.0 0.070 -0.00149
Padres Fielding by Position
Position, 2003 PhilliesExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 228.0 0.052 231.0 0.053 0.00067
Catcher 50.5 0.012 47.0 0.011 -0.00080
First Base 310.3 0.071 302.0 0.069 -0.00189
Second Base 545.7 0.125 554.0 0.126 0.00190
Third Base 430.4 0.098 435.0 0.099 0.00106
Shortstop 528.2 0.121 536.0 0.122 0.00178
Left Field 292.4 0.067 281.0 0.064 -0.00259
Center Field 376.4 0.086 367.0 0.084 -0.00215
Right Field 318.1 0.073 320.0 0.073 0.00044
Phillies Fielding by Position
Position, 2003 PiratesExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 209.5 0.045 210.0 0.045 0.00011
Catcher 50.7 0.011 43.0 0.009 -0.00167
First Base 294.0 0.064 286.0 0.062 -0.00174
Second Base 565.0 0.122 588.0 0.127 0.00497
Third Base 454.6 0.098 460.0 0.099 0.00118
Shortstop 554.9 0.120 543.0 0.117 -0.00258
Left Field 334.8 0.072 328.0 0.071 -0.00148
Center Field 412.9 0.089 416.0 0.090 0.00066
Right Field 320.4 0.069 322.0 0.070 0.00035
Pirates Fielding by Position
Position, 2003 RangersExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 190.2 0.042 202.0 0.045 0.00260
Catcher 45.5 0.010 40.0 0.009 -0.00122
First Base 326.2 0.072 336.0 0.074 0.00216
Second Base 518.9 0.115 512.0 0.113 -0.00153
Third Base 389.1 0.086 394.0 0.087 0.00107
Shortstop 507.8 0.112 504.0 0.111 -0.00085
Left Field 307.1 0.068 303.0 0.067 -0.00091
Center Field 446.9 0.099 437.0 0.096 -0.00218
Right Field 338.4 0.075 332.0 0.073 -0.00142
Rangers Fielding by Position
Position, 2003 Red SoxExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 193.0 0.043 195.0 0.043 0.00044
Catcher 45.3 0.010 50.0 0.011 0.00104
First Base 353.9 0.079 363.0 0.081 0.00201
Second Base 545.7 0.121 529.0 0.118 -0.00371
Third Base 401.5 0.089 402.0 0.089 0.00012
Shortstop 526.2 0.117 523.0 0.116 -0.00072
Left Field 299.8 0.067 290.0 0.064 -0.00217
Center Field 405.6 0.090 412.0 0.092 0.00141
Right Field 313.1 0.070 312.0 0.069 -0.00025
Red Sox Fielding by Position
Position, 2003 RedsExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 180.5 0.039 182.0 0.039 0.00033
Catcher 51.3 0.011 52.0 0.011 0.00014
First Base 305.3 0.066 311.0 0.067 0.00122
Second Base 507.8 0.109 515.0 0.111 0.00155
Third Base 447.3 0.096 450.0 0.097 0.00058
Shortstop 552.8 0.119 550.0 0.118 -0.00061
Left Field 368.7 0.079 359.0 0.077 -0.00209
Center Field 421.6 0.091 412.0 0.089 -0.00207
Right Field 358.1 0.077 364.0 0.078 0.00126
Reds Fielding by Position
Position, 2003 RockiesExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 194.4 0.042 206.0 0.044 0.00249
Catcher 47.5 0.010 44.0 0.009 -0.00075
First Base 379.9 0.081 384.0 0.082 0.00087
Second Base 561.9 0.120 540.0 0.116 -0.00469
Third Base 421.5 0.090 423.0 0.091 0.00032
Shortstop 583.9 0.125 574.0 0.123 -0.00213
Left Field 336.2 0.072 337.0 0.072 0.00018
Center Field 357.6 0.077 353.0 0.076 -0.00098
Right Field 307.7 0.066 302.0 0.065 -0.00123
Rockies Fielding by Position
Position, 2003 RoyalsExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 186.0 0.040 186.0 0.040 0.00001
Catcher 45.3 0.010 45.0 0.010 -0.00006
First Base 354.4 0.076 347.0 0.074 -0.00157
Second Base 532.3 0.114 530.0 0.113 -0.00050
Third Base 415.5 0.089 412.0 0.088 -0.00074
Shortstop 544.1 0.116 567.0 0.121 0.00490
Left Field 333.8 0.071 335.0 0.072 0.00026
Center Field 440.4 0.094 451.0 0.096 0.00227
Right Field 373.8 0.080 358.0 0.076 -0.00338
Royals Fielding by Position
Position, 2003 TigersExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 189.4 0.039 194.0 0.040 0.00095
Catcher 54.6 0.011 62.0 0.013 0.00153
First Base 315.8 0.066 302.0 0.063 -0.00287
Second Base 555.3 0.116 555.0 0.116 -0.00006
Third Base 448.4 0.093 427.0 0.089 -0.00445
Shortstop 584.7 0.122 582.0 0.121 -0.00057
Left Field 363.1 0.076 353.0 0.073 -0.00211
Center Field 455.5 0.095 448.0 0.093 -0.00157
Right Field 357.2 0.074 360.0 0.075 0.00058
Tigers Fielding by Position
Position, 2003 TwinsExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 180.1 0.039 197.0 0.043 0.00367
Catcher 56.9 0.012 54.0 0.012 -0.00064
First Base 332.0 0.072 350.0 0.076 0.00389
Second Base 515.2 0.112 494.0 0.107 -0.00459
Third Base 424.9 0.092 415.0 0.090 -0.00214
Shortstop 504.1 0.109 504.0 0.109 -0.00001
Left Field 368.0 0.080 371.0 0.080 0.00065
Center Field 468.5 0.102 473.0 0.103 0.00098
Right Field 350.5 0.076 368.0 0.080 0.00379
Twins Fielding by Position
Position, 2003 White SoxExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 180.9 0.042 185.0 0.043 0.00095
Catcher 42.8 0.010 42.0 0.010 -0.00018
First Base 312.5 0.073 308.0 0.072 -0.00106
Second Base 525.9 0.123 510.0 0.119 -0.00371
Third Base 380.2 0.089 378.0 0.088 -0.00050
Shortstop 514.9 0.120 528.0 0.123 0.00305
Left Field 335.2 0.078 335.0 0.078 -0.00004
Center Field 388.7 0.091 396.0 0.093 0.00171
Right Field 325.6 0.076 336.0 0.079 0.00242
White Sox Fielding by Position
Position, 2003 YankeesExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 200.6 0.044 207.0 0.046 0.00142
Catcher 54.7 0.012 48.0 0.011 -0.00148
First Base 322.4 0.071 315.0 0.070 -0.00165
Second Base 537.6 0.119 534.0 0.118 -0.00079
Third Base 412.5 0.091 414.0 0.092 0.00033
Shortstop 502.9 0.111 480.0 0.106 -0.00506
Left Field 326.5 0.072 326.0 0.072 -0.00012
Center Field 436.6 0.097 420.0 0.093 -0.00366
Right Field 316.8 0.070 330.0 0.073 0.00292
Yankees Fielding by Position

It's pretty obvious from this just how bad the Yankees shortstops were this year. Can't wait to break it down by players to see just how bad Jeter is. I was also surprised that the Dodger shortstops were on the negative side. It looks like Bret Boone's Gold Glove was not based on his range. The Cardinals had four Gold Glove winners, but their chart makes me wonder why.

I'm sure as we study these charts more questions will be raised about certain players. Enjoy studying these, and feel free to contact me with any questions or comments.


Posted by David Pinto at 10:24 PM | Defense | TrackBack (0)