Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
November 09, 2003
Probabilistic Model of Range, Pitcher's Effect

Recently, I looked at the effects of ball parks on range. I was next going to see what ballparks were most different from normal, but I have quite figured out the correct way to do that yet. Instead, I'm looking at handedness today. We'l start out with the handedness of the pitchers.

The following table calculates expected DER based on the batted ball type, direction, speed and the throwing hand of the pitcher. I basically substituted throwing hand for ballpark in this calculation. The results:

TeamExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Mariners 3051.8 0.705 3120.0 0.720 0.01575
Phillies 3014.6 0.688 3073.0 0.701 0.01332
Cardinals 3172.6 0.686 3229.0 0.698 0.01219
White Sox 2977.4 0.696 3018.0 0.705 0.00948
Angels 3071.5 0.693 3108.0 0.702 0.00824
Dodgers 2794.9 0.695 2828.0 0.703 0.00823
Padres 2975.3 0.687 3009.0 0.695 0.00778
Braves 3118.2 0.690 3150.0 0.697 0.00705
Expos 3037.2 0.686 3066.0 0.693 0.00651
Reds 3166.8 0.682 3195.0 0.688 0.00607
Astros 2962.4 0.699 2981.0 0.704 0.00438
Brewers 3107.0 0.680 3123.0 0.683 0.00351
Royals 3219.8 0.688 3231.0 0.690 0.00239
Marlins 2996.1 0.691 2999.0 0.692 0.00067
Cubs 2757.3 0.690 2759.0 0.691 0.00043
Indians 3191.1 0.698 3190.0 0.698 -0.00023
Rockies 3165.3 0.679 3163.0 0.678 -0.00048
Orioles 3134.6 0.684 3132.0 0.683 -0.00057
Athletics 3118.2 0.713 3112.0 0.712 -0.00141
Devil Rays 3213.9 0.709 3204.0 0.707 -0.00219
Giants 3104.2 0.712 3091.0 0.709 -0.00303
Twins 3242.3 0.703 3226.0 0.699 -0.00352
Tigers 3309.9 0.689 3283.0 0.683 -0.00561
Blue Jays 3135.1 0.688 3106.0 0.681 -0.00638
Mets 3128.5 0.694 3099.0 0.688 -0.00654
Rangers 3118.0 0.688 3060.0 0.675 -0.01280
Pirates 3257.8 0.704 3196.0 0.691 -0.01335
Diamondbacks 2950.1 0.704 2888.0 0.689 -0.01483
Yankees 3143.9 0.695 3074.0 0.679 -0.01545
Red Sox 3153.4 0.701 3076.0 0.684 -0.01720

If you compare the above table to my original calculation (based on the three batted ball features), you see very little difference in the ordering of the teams. Unlike park effects, the handedness of the pitchers have very little to do with the team's DER. Two teams it seems to help are the Dodgers and Athletics, although at the moment I have no speculation why.


Posted by David Pinto at 08:33 AM | Defense | TrackBack (0)