Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
February 14, 2008
Clemens Poll

This is the second poll I've seen in which readers are asked a binary choice between Clemens and McNamee as to who is telling the truth. I'd like to look at it from a different perspective:


Do you believe Clemens?
What is the probability that Roger Clemens is telling the truth?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
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90%
100%
View Resulttherapesites.com
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Posted by David Pinto at 08:30 AM | Cheating | TrackBack (0)
Comments

it largely falls into a binary calculation, because his truth telling is a fifty-fifty proposition. I am tempted to vote with that number because without concrete irrefutable evidence we will never know. I think the probability of McNamee lying is also fifty-fifty. The hearing resolved little, but I think it harmed all involved to varying degrees. McNamee was a known scumbag, and he essentially enhanced that understanding. Clemens is a tabula rasa, what we brought to him, we see in his performance. Because so many folks loathe him at this point in his career, it is no surprise he is looking bad to most folks. Further, some of the information, (more consistent with winstrol than B-12 for example) really is damning. Finally, Congress looks like a bunch of Joe McCarthys meddling in sport because they can (Tonight on "It's Your Congress", watch Henry Waxman hold his Sword of Damocles over the antitrust exemption as baseball officials squirm!) and because they get higher ratings when they grill famous folks. No doubt some staffer on the Hill is trying to figure out how they can get Dr. Phil, and the Spears family to appear before Congress to testify about her illegal drug use....

Posted by: Ennuipundit at February 14, 2008 09:09 AM

The probability of McNamee lying about "something" is 50/50, but I believe the probability of his lying about ever injecting Clemens with steroids is maybe 10%. One lies in order to gain or stay out of trouble. He was already in trouble when he mentioned Clemens, and would have received immunity had he just named the others (who have backed him). And if he is lying, instead of gaining anything, he was told out front that he would go to jail for a long time if he told one single lie. Is that a risk you would take if you were faced with the same situtation? Anyone? So either we're supposed to believe a guy who certainly isn't "likeable", but who has been proven to be telling the truth about nearly every single item from him in the Mitchell Report. Or believe one of the best pitchers of all time, who didn't know his own wife was using HGH, who's friend Andy Pettitte even testified he spoke of using it but "misremembered", and who seems to be taking more and more of a Barry Bonds like contempt to the public for not 100% believing him no matter what the evidence against him. I truly think the guy thought this would go away and now that it hasn't realizes he has two option...stick to his story or go to jail. Every day is basically watching him try and save his own hide. Attempting to destroy McNamee's character doesnt' do one thing to proving he didn't inject Clemens...do you think that personal trainers who inject their athletes with steroids aren't shady? I hope some sort of irrefutable proof does come out of it either way...i believe both men are a bit dispicable.

Posted by: John Stewart at February 14, 2008 09:39 AM

Why does a poll matter? Why ake one?

Either get the perjury investigation going, or charge Clemens with drug violations - then the real polls that matter will be taken - by a grand jury and a regular jury.

Polls are lazy news reporting.

Posted by: rmt at February 14, 2008 09:40 AM

Jail the liar

Posted by: joe at February 14, 2008 12:34 PM

Or maybe our twice-unelected president will just pardon him!

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AruWR9BSa8Lq6AkhAU0Q0UURvLYF?slug=ap-clemens-pardon&prov=ap&type=lgns

Posted by: Mark at February 14, 2008 02:46 PM

What about the other poll, the probability that McNamee is telling the truth? Note that these two percentages won't necessarily add to 1 (although they should add no more than 1). I might say (and I did) that I place the probability that Clemens is telling the truth at about 60%; I might also place the probability that McNamee is telling the truth at 20%.

Posted by: Donald A. Coffin at February 14, 2008 02:51 PM

You need two more choices:
- I'm uninformed and haven't a clue
- I don't care in the slightest

Posted by: gordon at February 14, 2008 05:37 PM
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