Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
February 27, 2008
Silver Rays

Nate Silver goes on the record at SI.com with a prediction that the Rays will win twenty two more games than the Devil Rays did last season.

It's in the field, though, that the Rays will make their biggest gains. According to BP's Fielding Runs above Average (FRAA), the Rays gave up 72 more runs than an average defense last season. Of that total, 56 resulted from poor middle-infield play as the Rays rotated overmatched utilitymen Brendan Harris and Josh Wilson at shortstop and saw Upton commit 12 errors in just 48 games at second before moving him to centerfield. But the acquisition of slick-fielding shortstop Jason Bartlett in the Young trade and the move of sure-handed Aki Iwamura from third to second (to make room for Longoria) has stabilized the infield. As a result the Rays' defense projects to be 10 runs above average this year, an 82-run improvement, which will allow the improved rotation to work through its innings more efficiently.

I hope Nate is right. It will be fun to have a third team competing for the top spot in the division.


Posted by David Pinto at 01:00 PM | Predictions | TrackBack (0)
Comments

The Rays do look better on paper. But if Kazmir's arm turns into something serious, the Rays are in for another very rough season. They have some quality prospects coming through the system, but even quality prospects are going to struggle against Boston and New York.

Posted by: thatteamfromcle at February 27, 2008 02:32 PM

I don't get what he's looking at. From what I can find on their website, PECOTA has the Rays at 82-80; a game behind the Jays.

Posted by: Rusty at February 27, 2008 03:50 PM

Perhaps we could just assume the Jasy might compete for the division lead instead of hoping for a Tampa Bay miracle. The Rays starting staff doesn't have much insulation against losing anyone, and I seem to remember their bullpen being brutal.

Posted by: Marc at February 27, 2008 04:52 PM

Actually, it might just be my bias but the Yankees over hte last few year seem to automatically die when they face a rookie for the first time.

Posted by: RollingWave at February 28, 2008 11:12 AM

The AAA Rays have been giving the Yankees fits now for 2 plus years. They played the Bosox really tough too. Yes, the Rays will win more games this year than last. I can actually see them finishing .500 this year. But alas, it all hinges on Kazmir now, doesn't it? The concept for thier new park looks nice. They didn't go far enough in a name change and new uniform design though. They could really have righted a wrong there.

Posted by: Leco at February 28, 2008 09:49 PM
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