Updated 3/19/2024 to reflect Giants signing Blake Snell.
The division previews begin with the NL West as the Dodgers and Padres play two games in South Korea this week. To help with evaluations, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcels projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.
The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Note that the core winning percentage (CWP) is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.
Los Angeles Dodgers
- Position Player RC/G Average: 6.17
- Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.59
- Core Winning Percentage: .644
The Dodgers once again rank as the favorite to win the NL West, but they are not as strong as usual. The Dodgers came in at .746 CWP in 2021, 741 in 2022, and 6.99 in 2023. Even with all their resources, it is difficult to maintain a strong team over a long period of time. Players age and/or get injured. Winning means picking later in the draft, so maintaining a farm system gets more difficult.
This year, the pitching injuries pulled down the team. Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, and Tony Gonsolin all start the season on the illjured list, and the Dodgers can’t use Shohei Ohtani on the mound. The resulting rotation is good but not great.
On the offensive side, there is a lot of value crammed into a few players. This is not a lineup that can hurt an opponent from every slot. The Dodgers do project as the strongest offensive team up the middle, but to achieve that they moved their rightfielder to shortstop.
If any other NL West team is going to make a run at the Dodgers, this is the season to do it.
San Diego Padres
- Position Player RC/G Average: 5.06
- Pitcher RC/G Average: 3.99
- Core Winning Percentage: .616
It looks to me like much of the negative talk around the Padres off-season was undeserved. They go into the season with the best projected core pitchers in the division. While they may not have lived up to expectations in 2023, the core of the offense is still pretty good. Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and Fernando Tatis Jr. still have good projections, and a rebound by all three would make the projections even better.
On top of that, rookie Jackson Merrill is having a great spring. If his conservative projection turns out to be too low, the offense will be better than expected.
The Padres should be in contention for the division title, especially if the Dodgers lose one of their big guns to an injury.
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Position Player RC/G Average: 5.33
- Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.56
- Core Winning Percentage: .578
The defending NL Champs received good seasons from their youngsters while veterans Ketel Marte and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.rebounded, Marte helping them be one of the strongest teams up the middle in the division. The youngsters are still pre-prime, so the Diamondbacks should expect more improvement from the quartet.
The pitching staff is solid, but there is less upside there. Brandon Pfaat offers best chance for improvement, but even if he lives up to his projection, the offense should be good enough to carry the staff.
If the Diamondbacks get off to a hot start like they did in 2023, I suspect this more mature team will be better equipped to keep that pace going.
San Francisco Giants
Updated to reflect Giants signing Blake Snell.
- Position Player RC/G Average: 4.82
- Pitcher RC/G Average: 3.99
- Core Winning Percentage: .594
The Giants quietly put together a good, young, pitching staff. Three of the starters sit in the middle of their prime years, while Kyle Harrison and Mason Black have yet to reach prime years. While there may not be a true ace in the group, all can pitch well enough to keep the Giants in the game.
Update: Blake Snell replaces Mason Black in the rotation after signing a two-year, $62 million contract. Snell lowers the core pitcher RC/G Average from 4.15 to 3.99. This ties the Padres for the best pitching core in the division.
The offense is weak, especially in power. No player projects to at least six runs per 27 outs, the only team in the NL West lacking such a bat. On the other hand, Nick Ahmed is the only poor offensive player on the team. Newcome Jung Hoo Lee gives them an excellent lead-off man, and his projections may be a bit low. The offense could really use an offensive rebound by Matt Chapman.
This team ranks very close to the Diamondbacks, although the Arizona strikes me as having more upside. A wild card is not out of the question for San Francisco.
Update: The Snell signing puts the Giants well ahead of the Diamondbacks in the division.
Colorado Rockies
- Position Player RC/G Average: 5.23
- Pitcher RC/G Average: 5.39
- Core Winning Percentage: .485
The Rockies seem to be treading water right now. They’re inexperienced players tend to be older, already in their prime, so there is not much upside in that group. They also seem to be back in the rut of bringing along pitchers who can’t handle Coors. So they will have a high scoring offense, but give up more runs than they allow. It’s not pretty, and they may be headed for another horrible season in an otherwise strong division.
Predictions
Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.
- Los Angeles Dodgers 35%
- San Diego Padres 30%
- Arizona Diamondbacks 18%
- San Francisco Giants 16%
- Colorado Rockies 1%
Update: Reworked probabilities after the Snell signing:
- Los Angeles Dodgers 35%
- San Diego Padres 30%
- San Francisco Giants 20%
- Arizona Diamondbacks 14%
- Colorado Rockies 1%
I think this should be one of the more competitive years in the NL West in recent history.