Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
September 29, 2007
The Four Way Tie Lives!

The Rockies trounce the Diamondbacks 11-1, gaining a game on the Phillies and the Padres. The four-way tie scenario is still in place as the three games that needed specific outcomes went the right way. Here's what needs to happen tomorrow:

  • Mets win.
  • Phillies win.
  • San Diego loses.
  • Colorado wins.

The first two happening means a playoff for the NL East title on Monday. The third happening as well means the loser on Monday needs to play at least one more game Tuesday. All four and the NLDS gets delayed. It should be an exciting Sunday!

Update: I'm seeing on the Baseball Prospectus chatter the odds of a four-way tie are 12.6%. Much better than I thought.

Update: I see that the Padres are going to pitch Tomko tomorrow instead of Peavy. They'd rather have Jake go on full rest for a playoff, or be ready to start game 1 if it doesn't happen. Tomko instead of Peavy makes me a little more confident of a Padres loss tomorrow.

Also, if the Mets, Phillies and Padres lose tomorrow and the Rockies win, there will be two playoff games on Monday, one for the NL East and one for the Wild Card.


Posted by David Pinto at 11:28 PM | Division Races | TrackBack (0)
Comments

That makes sense- they need four specific results. If all the games were a coin flip, it would be just 6.25%. But they're not, they need three teams playing inferior opponents to win, and then a good team to lose to another good team on the road. So the four necessary individual outcomes are each more likely than not.

Posted by: Vegas Watch at September 29, 2007 11:50 PM

Hi David,
is it possible to go back and view a snapshot of your blog from a day in the past? For example, can I go back and view all of your posts from this day last year?
Thanks,
Chris

Posted by: Chris at September 30, 2007 02:24 AM

David -

As long as I've known you (through this blog), the MASSIVE TIE has been your Impossible Dream, that magical climax you've been pulling for the season to end on over the past few years. Unless I'm completely wrong, you then are every bit as stoked about the possibility as I am.

Just can't wait to see how you react if we end up with a four-way tie. That'll be one to remember for the ages.

Posted by: Jeff B. at September 30, 2007 05:52 AM

Yes, I love things like this.

Posted by: David Pinto at September 30, 2007 08:22 AM
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