Baseball Musings: Rays Take Command

September 18, 2008

Rays Take Command

17 Sep 2008: Jason Bartlett congratulates Willy Aybar of the Rays after Aybar hit a home run that gave the Rays the lead in the first inning.
Photo: Icon SMI

The Rays put an exclamation point on their championship season Wednesday night, mauling the Red Sox 10-3. Matt Garza didn't last long as he gave up two home runs to David Ortiz, but that was all the offense Boston could muster. The Rays bullpen pitched 4 1/3 innings of one-hit ball as the Rays claimed the tie-breaker in the AL East, putting them in a great position to win the division.

With 90 wins on the season, they've topped their previous high by 20 wins and the Baseball Prospectus prediction by two. They've out performed their Pythagorean projection by five games, but that's what great pitching can do for a team. With the second best ERA in the American League, they're more likely to win low scoring games. They're 28-17 in one-run games, the best record in the AL.

They do have some worries. Scott Kazmir started the season strong but regressed back to his inefficient ways as the season progressed. At this point I would be more confident with Shields and Garza starting. I'm definitely not crazy about using Troy Percival as the closer. He walks too many and gives up too many home runs, a dangerous combination for a late-inning pitcher.

The offense doesn't produce that many runs. Part of that, however, is poor performance with runners in scoring position. They hit .261/.339/.421 over all, but .241/.338/.384 with RISP. That may be bad luck or the nature of the team, number six batters hitting poorly this season.

I like this team going into October. This wasn't an easy 90 wins. They suffered through losing streaks and doubters, but came through nonetheless. They're going to be an exciting playoff team, and I can't wait to watch them in playoffs.

Posted by David Pinto at 08:11 AM | Division Races | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Funny thought. The Rays go three-and-out because the offense doesn't show up at all.

Don't think that will happen. But it's a very real possibility.

Posted by: Casey Abell at September 18, 2008 09:09 AM

And while I'm at it, I might as well say the same about the Angels. Like the Rays they don't score much and they've been real lucky in one-run games. If the offense takes a three-game vacation (a real possibility) they're another candidate for three-and-out.

But the postseason is a crapshoot. Anything can and will happen.

Posted by: Casey Abell at September 18, 2008 09:15 AM

The things that amazes this Red Sox fan is the Ray's bullpen and resilience to injuries. You're right that Percival has been a nightmare, but Wheeler, Howell and Balfour are all solid set up guys (In fact, its amazing to me that Balfour isn't the closer at this point.)

I am also impressed by the way this team consistently scrapes out wins during long stretches when key guys, like Longoria or Crawford, are on the disabled list. They do not have a lot of offensive power, but if you can get solid contributions from non-everyday players like Eric Hinske, maybe you don't need flashy superstars.

Posted by: Pandyora at September 18, 2008 09:15 AM

One more thing and I'll shut up. Somehow the Red Sox lose two out of three and cut their magic number in half, from eight to four. Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good.

Posted by: Casey Abell at September 18, 2008 09:17 AM

"But the postseason is a crapshoot."

Abject nonsense.

Posted by: Bandit at September 18, 2008 11:23 AM

You have to get ahead of TB - Balfour, howell and Wheeler give up nothing

Posted by: Bandit at September 18, 2008 11:31 AM

Has anyone been paying any attention to the fact that the Rays are 6-9 for September? If you take out the games vs the Red Sox, they are 2-7.

The Red Sox, on the other hand are 10-6 for the month, 8-2 against everyone who isn't Tampa.

This isn't to take anything away from the Rays. I agree that they're an exciting team and what they've done this year is impressive. But they still have 12 games left and the Red Sox still have 10. The way both teams have played when not playing each other leads me to suspect that the Rays don't have the division title locked up quite yet.

Posted by: rocksfan at September 18, 2008 12:12 PM

"Abject nonsense."

Tell that to all those teams who were better than St. Louis in 2006. Any team can get hot for three weeks and win it all, even a thoroughly mediocre club like the '06 Cardinals.

Posted by: Casey Abell at September 18, 2008 12:31 PM

The reason the Rays are 6-9 in September is that their offense has mostly taken the month off, scoring 3.8 runs per game. The AL overall is averaging five runs a game for the month.

The Rays just don't have much hitting. If the batsmen disappear in the playoffs, the team disappears along with them, quickly.

And that ain't no abject nonsense.

Posted by: Casey Abell at September 18, 2008 12:38 PM

Correction: the Rays are actually averaging 4.2 runs per game in September, still well below league average. That's why they're having trouble winning. Their pitching has actually been better than league average for the month.

Posted by: Casey Abell at September 18, 2008 12:41 PM

Upton has been out most of September. The team misses that .380 OBP at the top of the order. He should be healthy in time for the playoffs.

Posted by: Andy at September 18, 2008 06:22 PM