Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
July 24, 2005
Dynamics of a Division Race

Every so often someone makes a comment to the effect that games late in the year are more important than games early in the year. This is, on it's face, hogwash. A win counts just as much early as it does late. In fact, games won early are game you don't need to win late.

To demonstrate this, let's look at the NL East race, charting team by their winning percentage by month (click on image for full size chart):

Graph of NL East Race

What you see are a number of different paths to success or failure. The Braves are taking the slow and steady approach. They are good but not great every month. The Nationals, on the other hand, used one great month to reach the top. The Mets are taking a one step forward, 1/2 step back approach. The Marlins are steadily declining.

April mattered most to the Phillies. Finishing the month in last place, the Phillies have been playing good ball ever since. They have the same record as the Braves since May 1st. But having the same record as the Braves does them no good as the year progresses. No one in the NL East won the division in April, but the Phillies might very well have lost it that month.


Posted by David Pinto at 09:48 AM | Division Races | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Interesting stuff. I just hope that the marlins are able to turn it around.

Posted by: eddie at July 25, 2005 02:57 PM

Another interesting question: Can all five teams finish with winning records?

Posted by: seamus at July 25, 2005 05:36 PM
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