Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
September 19, 2008
Massive Tie Scenario

Even though the Cardinals won last night, I'm dropping them from the massive tie scenario. Albert Pujols hit home run #34 on the season, and Edinson Volquez walked six batters as he continues his second half slide. The Cardinals squeaked by the Reds 5-4.

The Marlins, however, remain viable. They tied the Astros in the standings last night. Houston's player remain shell shocked from hurricane Ike as they lose 8-1. They've been outscored 38-5 since resuming play Sunday. They now travel to Pittsburgh. Maybe they can get back on track against the Pirates.

The Mets and Phillies both won, both putting another game between them and the Brewers. Pat Burrell broke out of his slump with two hits and two RBI and Brad Lidge remained perfect in save opportunities, striking out two of the three batters he faced for his 38th save. The Phillies won by a final of 4-3.

The Mets won big as the winter trades proved useful. The X-Nats pounded the ball and Johan Santana pitched seven strong inning to bring the Mets a 7-2 victory.

The following scenario results in the teams each winning 90 games:

TeamRecord
Phillies4-5
Mets5-5
Brewers6-3
Astros10-0
Marlins10-0

I start disliking scenarios where a first place team needs to lose more than it wins. A three way tie between the Brewers, Mets and Phillies is a real possibility, however. For today:

  • Houston defeats Pittsburgh
  • Milwaukee defeats Cincinnati
  • Florida defeats Philadelphia
  • Atlanta defeats New York

I'm very interested to see if Florida can work its way back into the NL East race.


Posted by David Pinto at 07:49 AM | Division Races | TrackBack (0)
Comments

The other tie possibility got a little closer last night, as the White Sox got creamed by the Yankees while the Twins staged an improbable comeback in Tampa.

For once the Rays scored a bunch, with Longoria hitting three home runs. But the Twins rallied for five in the ninth to win 11-8. The big hit was an improbable double by Adam Everett, of all people, after he had faked a bunt. Bremer went nuts on Extra Innings when that happened.

Minnesota is now 1 1/2 behind the Sox with three to play at home against Chicago. A tie is a real possibility.

Posted by: Casey Abell at September 19, 2008 08:15 AM

Tie Scenario fans might want to have a look at the current state of the presidential election projections. Short version: if Obama loses New Hampshire but wins the other states that Kerry won (all very plausible), and then adds Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado (not far-fetched), then the electoral vote is a tie.

Hm, I guess they have a one-game play-off or something. They don't flip a coin, do they?

Posted by: James at September 19, 2008 08:54 AM

As long as there are no recount challenges, the tie goes to the Congress. The House elects the president, and the Senate elects the VP.

I believe voting in the House is not by representative, but by state. So the party that hold the majority in reps may not have a majority in states.

Posted by: David Pinto at September 19, 2008 09:04 AM

Yeah, I knew that, I was kidding.

It is indeed by state, but the Democrats are almost certain to control most states. In that sense, the Massive Tie is good for Obama.

Nate Silver has been blogging about this, by the way. It must be something about baseball stats that makes these tie scenarios attractive to aficionados.

Posted by: James at September 19, 2008 09:17 AM

Yes, I've been reading Silver's site, 538 to see how the race is going.

Posted by: David Pinto at September 19, 2008 10:41 AM

Are you a lover of baseball oddities? Sure you are.

The White Sox have a chance to become the first team in 43 years to play four different teams on four consecutive days.

How's that work? The White Sox host Cleveland on the last day of the regular season, Sunday, Sept. 28. If Minnesota is within a half-game of the White Sox at the conclusion of play, Chicago will be forced to host a makeup game with Detroit on Monday the 29th. If the result of that game forces a tie for the AL Central, Chicago will host Minnesota in a one-game playoff on Tuesday the 30th. And if the White Sox win that game and MLB decides that their division series should start on Wednesday rather than Thursday, they'll fly to either Tampa Bay or Boston for the fourth game in the streak.

The last time a team played four different teams on four consecutive days was in 1965 by the Cleveland Indians (9/5 at Baltimore, 9/6 hosted Washington for a doubleheader, 9/7 at Chicago, 9/8 hosted Boston).

The last time a team pulled this feat in only four games was in 1929 by the Philadelphia Phillies (8/24 hosted Cubs, 8/25 at Brooklyn, 8/26 hosted St. Louis, 8/27 hosted Pittsburgh).

Kudos as always to Retrosheet.

Posted by: Tor at September 19, 2008 08:47 PM

That is so cool.

Posted by: David Pinto at September 19, 2008 11:20 PM

Back to the electoral college: that tie scenario might not get to the Congress. A few states will split their electoral votes to avoid a tie, and Nebraska is one of them. Obama has a team trying to capture the Omaha congressional district even if he loses the state--which is very likely. A win in that district would break that electoral tie 270-268.

Posted by: Mark at September 20, 2008 12:59 PM
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