September 17, 2008
Marlins Tie Scenario
While the Astros and Cardinals keep losing, making the massive tie scenario less likely, the Florida Marlins won six in a row to move back into a place where a run at the playoffs is a possibility. Unlike the other five teams on this list, the Marlins play both the Mets and the Phillies, giving them a chance to control their own destiny. The following records result in a six way tie for the NL East and the NL Wild Card:
| Team | Record |
| Phillies | 6-5 |
| Mets | 7-5 |
| Brewers | 7-4 |
| Astros | 10-2 |
| Cardinals | 12-0 |
| Marlins | 12-0 |
Florida outscored their opponents 36-22 over these last six games. They're now playing as I thought they would from August on, after they fixed their starting rotation with healed pitchers. The offense didn't perform, however. It may be too little too late for the Marlins, but they host Philadelphia this weekend, then close Shea Stadium the last weekend of the season.
While a six-way tie is a real long shot, the Phillies, Mets and Brewers playing to a three-way tie looks pretty good. We'll see how much the Marlins help pull two of these teams back to the pack.
The Marlins are underwater on run diff and five games out in the loss column with twelve to play. The ESPN odds machine gives tham a 0.9% chance for the playoffs.
So they'll probably win the division.