September 26, 2006
Massive Tie Review and Outlook
The wins by Houston and Cincinnati helped toward some kind of massive tie, but the win by San Diego changed the dynamic of the scenario. In order to achieve a five-way tie involving the Padres, San Diego needs to lose all of its remaining games. I don't think that will happen.
San Diego's win also makes the three-way tie for the division and wild card less likely. They own a two game lead with six to play, and no one to challenge them directly.
However, there is another five team tie scenario caused the by Cardinals losing streak. It's still a long shot, but if Los Angeles and the Phillies finish 1-5, then a 3-4 performance by St. Louis, a 5-1 finish by Houston and a 6-0 streak by the Reds gives us a three-way tie for the Central with two other teams tied for the wild card.
San Diego's win also makes the three-way tie for the division and wild card less likely. They own a two game lead with six to play, and no one to challenge them directly. A big tie is highly unlikely at this point. Then again, it was also very unlikely that St. Louis would still be waiting for a division title at this point.
So here are the best results for today for a massive tie in the NL:
- Washington defeats Philadelphia.
- Houston defeats Pittsburgh.
- Cincinnati defeats Florida.
- St. Louis defeats San Diego.
- Colorado defeats Los Angeles.
The Padres/Cardinals game can actually go either way. If the Padres win, it just changes the massive tie scenario from involving the Padres to involving the Reds.
re: the massive collapse by st louis
paralleling the second half slump of albert pujols, the cardinals have had a massive second half slump. this is in many ways a surprise given the fact that LaRussa and the Cards have ususally finished strong and know how to play the game (oh how i hate that cliche).
perhaps what we are seeing here is the effects of age related decline finally catching up to what is in effect, other than Pujols, a veteran ballclub, as Edmonds and Rolen are in their 30s, Eckstein is nearly 40, and other important performers on the pitching staff and hitting and fielding regulars are also in their 30s.
LaRussa doesn't always play his bench during the regular season and he strongly likes veterans with the Cards.
The Phils by contrast unloaded most of their vets at the all star break and went young; the Astros added younger players by trade and while Biggio is having problems, Berkman is putting up MVP numbers and Taveras is a young hitter while Clemens appears ageless (should he be called "the ageless one?").
This season again underlines the importance of having a farm team to go to add depth and prospects in the middle of a pennant race to spell your regulars in the dog days of July and August so that your older players are fresh in September for down the stretch. Those same young players, once they get experience in the summer, can be valuable contributors in September. This is a model that has worked for nearly 100 years in baseball, most notably for the Yankees in many of their pennant drives, and also for Atlanta during their amazing division winning streaks from 1995-2006 and from 1991-1993.
--art kyriazis, philly
Pujol's second half (7/1 - 9/25) slump: .346/.424/.634
His 1.058 OPS over that period ranks 4th in the NL, 7th overall, and still exceeds his career mark.
Some slump.