August 12, 2007
One Game a Week
Kevin Millar made the Red Sox miss him a bit as he hits a three-run homer in the bottom of the tenth to give the Orioles a 6-3 walk off win as Baltimore takes two out of three from Boston. Once again, the bullpen, which was supposed to be strengthened at the trading deadline, falls short. Schilling pitched an interesting game, allowing just one unearned run through six innings, walking none but striking out no one either. But Okajima walks a batter and gets an out in the seventh, then Gagne comes in to face Tejada, throws nothing but fastballs, and Tejada gets a hold of one to tie the game.
The Red Sox go 2-4 on the week, the Yankees win 5-1 to pick up three games. Boston now has a four game lead with seven weeks left in the season.
Not as historic a comeback as in '78, but I think we just might be in the middle of watching something special happening here. If the Yanks can manage to shave off just 1 more game during the next 2 weeks...they'll get to play the Red Sox in Yankee stadium with a chance to put themselves in a tie for 1st (between Aug 28-30). There will be 3 more games against them, in Boston (Sept 14-16).
I don't understand how Tito is managing the bullpen.
First, I understand that he's trying to get Gagne into good, tough, closer-like situations in which he can succeed. That makes sense. But holy smokes, maybe *slightly* less pressure would be better -- even a robust ego has to be scarred by what Gagne has gone through.
Second, why on earth was Francona saving Papelbon? How do you lose a game like that with the best closer in baseball (or certainly one of the very few) still in the bullpen? That's what old-school, by-the-book managers do (on the road don't use the closer until you have a lead). But it's obviously wrong in a game like this one, and Francona isn't a dumb or rote manager. Is he? So what's the deal?
Third, why is Jason Varitek calling seven consecutive fastballs to Miguel Tejada? There isn't a hitter in the major leagues who wouldn't be able to time it after seeing six consecutive fastballs.
On top of that, Tejada is a free-swinger... MIX PITCHES! Naturally, when it's too late, he calls for the curve, and Gagne gets Aubrey Huff on four pitches.
Jason Varitek is a below-average catcher, who mysteriously avoids any semblance of criticism. It's really mind-boggling that people still say he's great at handling pitchers when there is simply no evidence of it.
Seems right, but it's hard to believe that Varitek is the problem here.
Gagne said that once he got behind in the count they decided to go with fast balls, because a walk was not an option.
Any pitch sequence can be questioned. In the larger scheme, though, luck is just catching up with the Sox. New York still has an 10-15 record in one-run games, but the gods are fickle.
Based on run diff, the Yanks and Sox are close with maybe a slight edge to New York. After a while, the records do tend to catch up with the run diffs. Boston was almost bound to catch some nasty luck after their previous good fortune (which really means they had benefited from New York's bad fortune). It so happens that the bad luck arrived in the person of Eric Gagne.
Where does it go from here? Boston still has a four-game edge, very significant with only seven weeks left. My bet is that they hold on to the division, because the Yanks aren't really that much better than them.
The Yankees, though, should win the wild card pretty easy. They're already tied for the lead, and I wouldn't bet on the other teams in that race winning against New York's +163 run diff.