Baseball Musings: AL West Preview

March 30, 2007

AL West Preview

The AL West, the smallest division in baseball provides the best probability for any particular team to win. This season, the division is shaping up for a very different finish than last year.

The Oakland Athletics won the AL West in 2006, but enter 2007 with the loss of two big guns, Frank Thomas and Barry Zito. The replacements are Rich Harden and Mike Piazza. The pitching move is pretty typical of the A's management. They let older pitchers go before they fall apart, and move a young stud into the rotation. Unfortunately, filling the fifth slot proved difficult. None of the four pitchers who tried to grab the job preformed well. That's going to cost the A's some wins.

The change from Thomas to Piazza downgrades the offense. Even more worrisome is the injury to Mark Kotsay that forces Shannon Stewart into the lineup. Right now, Jason Kendall looks like the best offensive player on the team. There are some places where the A's might improve, however. Dan Johnson corrected a vision problem, which might bring him back to his 2005 level of play. Healthy seasons from Chavez and Crosby would also make up for some of the lost offense. Right now, on paper, the Oakland Athletics look like a third place team. But Billy Beane does an excellent job year in and year out of correcting weaknesses in the team mid stream. He going to need to do a very good job of it this season.

The second place Angels spent big bucks on Gary Matthews Jr. to improve the top of the order and the outfield defense. They paid a lot of money for a player in his 30s with only one great season under his belt. It strikes me that this move is likely to disappoint. Still, they have Vlad Guerrero, recovered from a bad knee in 2006. Even with a bum leg he was a force to be reckoned with. A healthy Vlad makes the offense better and is an MVP candidate.

I also like the way the Angels are weaving young players into the lineup. Kendrick and Kotchman look likely to get plenty of playing time this season, and Weaver and Saunders get to spend a whole year in the rotation.
Weaver starts the season on the DL, but the injury is minor and he'll likely miss just one turn. With Colon returning sometime in May, the Angels clearly own the best pitching in the division. They're solid top to bottom, with good strikeout rates and low walks allowed. And they finish the game with the division's best closer, Francisco Rodriguez. The pitching and a decent offense makes them a good pick for the division lead.

My only worry is that Figgins, Anderson and Cabrera are a year older and likely to decline, while Juan Rivera remains injured, to be replaced by the light hitting Shea Hillenbrand. With the strength of the staff, the offense doesn't have to be great, but low run scoring might prevent the Angels from running away with the race.

My surprise in the AL West goes to the Seattle Mariners. Although fans are disappointed with the production of Sexson and Beltre, and some are upset that the team is bringing in older players like Guillen and Vidro, the offense is consistently good. Based on 2006 numbers, even without making adjustment for improved health, the Mariners look like they own the best set of position players in the division. Healthy years from Guillen and Vidro make the offense much better. I'm very positive about that half of the team.

The pitching staff leaves something to be desired, but they do have a real wild card in Felix Hernandez. He looked great in his rookie year, but 2006 saw him take a big step backwards. He came to camp in the best shape of his life, prepared to carry this team. If he can pull off the types of seasons a young Gooden or Clemens pitched in the mid 1980s, the rest of the staff doesn't need to do all that well for the Mariners to post a winning record, even a division win.

Finally, the team that is likely to bring up the rear in the division is the Texas Rangers. We're used to Texas producing a lot of runs, but the offense is full of holes. Hank Blalock, once an all-star, tries to turn his career around. Without his bat, Young and Teixeira do all the heavy lifting. Other question marks on the offense are Brad Wilkerson, recovering from an injury and a difficult season and the untested Nelson Cruz. It's not a bad offense, but it's not what we're used to from the Rangers, and there's not a lot of potential for improvement.

That would be fine if the pitching were in good shape, but for a long time this winter depth charts only listed three starters on the squad. And while Brandon McCarty may turn out to be a star, there's no depth to the lineup. Jamey Wright, awful for the Giants in 2006, was named the fifth starter. The offense will need to hit on all cylinders when Wright takes the hill.

The only bright light on the staff is if Eric Gagne returns to his dominant form. That way, with Otsuka setting up, the Rangers could shorten the game to seven innings. With a starting staff unlikely to go long in the game, those last two innings become crucial. A great Rangers offense might carry this staff in that case, but this particular set of run scorers aren't likely to get the job done.

So I see the division ending with the Angels in first, the Mariners in second, the Athletics in third and the Rangers in the basement. Of course, some more mid-season magic from Billy Beane could easily change that arrangement.

Correction: I was working off old notes and forgot to update the Rangers rotation. Jamey Wright won the fifth starter's job. However, substituting Wright for Chen and Giants for Orioles gives the exact same result.

Posted by David Pinto at 08:56 AM | Predictions | TrackBack (0)

Comments

"Right now, Jason Kendall looks like the best offensive player on the team. "

Ever heard of Nick Swisher?

Posted by: heyzeus at March 30, 2007 10:08 AM

agreed with above. Kendall may in fact be the worst offensive player in that line-up. Bradley, Swisher, Johnson, Crosby, Ellis, Piazza and Chavez are all better. Even Kendall being better than Stewart could be argued against. It's not a good line-up but I shudder to think what a team where Jason Kendall was acutally the best offensive player would actually be like.

Posted by: rory at March 30, 2007 10:40 AM

On March 30th you're writing that Bruce Chen will likely be the fifth starter for the Rangers? Do you have access to some inside information the rest of us don't know about? Evan Grant on March 28 said it is "official" that Wright is the fifth starter. The rotation is Millwood, Padilla, Tejeda, McCarthy, Wright.

Posted by: peeping_Thomist at March 30, 2007 11:16 AM

Heck, not only does Evan Grant say it's official that Wright is the fifth starter, the official Texas Rangers website says that it's official that Wright is the fifth starter. But you say that it is "likely" Chen will be the fifth starter? Please clarify.

Posted by: peeping_Thomist at March 30, 2007 11:19 AM

Sorry about the Chen comment. I was working off old notes and forgot to update that bit. It's fixed now. As for Kendall, offensive was a poor choice. I meant non-pitcher, taking into account defense and playing time. In other words, of all the players on the roster, Kendall contributed the most wins last year.

Posted by: David Pinto at March 30, 2007 11:39 AM

wow dave - they're killing you today. when's the nl east post?

Posted by: Tim at March 30, 2007 12:03 PM

Shoot me now.

Can we just get on with the Kurt Suzuki era, please? At this point even he'd be an upgrade on Kendall.

Posted by: John Seal at March 30, 2007 12:27 PM

It's tough to argue Kendall is the best A's position player this year. While Kendall bested Swisher by Win Shares last year (23 to 22), Kendall was third among returning players in WARP1 (4.6, behind Swisher's 6.6 and Chavez' 5.7). WARP is rather high on fielding for all three players, putting all three as above average at their positions, Chavez strongly so. Kendall's a lot better than I thought, but he's still projected as a 4.1 WARP player without much upside, good enough for a tie for 5th on the team with Bobby Crosby, 0.1 ahead of Milton Bradley by the most recent PECOTA. You're right in saying that if Kendall is the best on the A's this year, they'll finish no higher than third.

Posted by: Ryne at March 30, 2007 01:18 PM

All of Kendall's value is tied up in the fact that he played every day (too much) and that he had a surprisingly good season throwing out runners (not likely to be repeated). He's really a negative in the line-up and a neutral defensively (although Adam Melhuse is a negative defensively). I agree that the Kurt Suzuki era will be a welcome sight.

Swisher and Piazza look like they are going to have big years and Bradley will if he stays healthy. Hard to know with Chavez. One would think he'd be better this year than last, but I've given up thinking of him as a true number three. Stewart should be equal to Kotsay's offensive output (less power but better OBP), although his defense is a negative. And now Dan Johnson is out, so Durazo will likely be in at first unless the A's make a trade.

The bullpen should be very good and the rotation should be okay if Harden stays healthy. If not, all bets are off. I'm guessing 88 wins.

Posted by: Melissa at March 30, 2007 01:37 PM

I really like the Angels staff, but I really dislike their lineup. It's pretty thin outside of Vlad. It's a shame, because they have a rotation that would fare well in the post-season, but they might not make it.

Posted by: paul zummo at March 30, 2007 02:20 PM

Being a Rangers fan I'm probably biased but I think the actual division will be: Rangers, Angels, Mariners, A's. I think the Rangers are going to surprise a lot of teams this year.

Posted by: jmw at March 31, 2007 02:21 AM

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