Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
August 27, 2007
NL West

The Arizona Diamondbacks go into San Diego leading the Padres by three games. The most amazing thing about this series, of course, is that the not only should the Padres be ten games ahead of the Diamondbacks, but the Diamondbacks should be last in the NL West, not first. The team is remarkably good in one run games, but remarkably bad in blow outs. Arizona is 29-16 when the game is decided by one run (number one is wins, number two in winning percentage). But they are 13-23 when a game is decide by five runs or more. Great teams do not get blown out. The Diamondbacks have been good enough in close games to climb into first. Now we'll see if they can hold it.

So far this season, the series against the Padres reflected this run split. In the four games the Diamondbacks lost, they've been outscored 36-11 for an average score of 9-3. In the seven games they've won, Arizona holds a 41-20 run advantage, or 6-3. Overall, the Padres have outscored the DBacks 56-52.

The Diamondbacks offense is somewhat inflated by their home park. Take them out of Chase Field, and their on-base average drops twenty points and their slugging drops by 50. On top of that, they are headed to a tough ballpark, PETCO. Don't be surprised to see a lot of little ball in this four game series. San Diego bunted 34 times at home vs. 19 on the road, and while they try as many steals, they are more successful at PETCO. The Diamondbacks are 41 for 46 stealing on the road, but their use of the bunt is the same home and away.

I was hoping for a Webb-Peavy matchup, but Jake draws Livan Hernandez in game one while Webb goes against Germano in game two. In a bit of luck, Arizona may miss Chris Young due to a bad back. Owings vs. Maddux in game three should be fun. We'll see if Micah can poke one out of PETCO.

Brian Giles and Adrian Gonzalez have been the main offensive force against Arizona, although Milton Bradley contributed since arriving in town. Chad Tracy is the only Diamondback to rise to that level, although Tony Clark's been deadly in his limited roles.

Arizona would love to walk away with a split of the four games, while San Diego needs to take three out of four, not only to gain ground by hold off the huge wild card pack behind them. The Padres are the better team in terms of overall talent, but so far this season, the Diamondbacks have better maximized the their player's skills. At the moment, Bob Melvin looks like a sure manager of the year.


Posted by David Pinto at 05:40 PM | Division Races | TrackBack (0)
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