Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
September 27, 2007
Massive Tie Scenario

The Padres win 11-3 as Jake Peavy wins his nineteenth game of the season. He finishes with a 2.36 ERA and with only one K tonight, 234 strikeouts in 217 innings. Looks like he's more than earned the Cy Young award this season.

It was a great day for the massive tie scenario. Although the Braves lost, eliminating the six team tie, The Mets and Diamondbacks leads are down to one. Here is the only way the tie can happen at this point:

TeamRecord
Rockies3-1
Phillies3-1
Padres2-2
Mets2-2
Diamondbacks1-3

Thursday's Rockies and Diamondbacks games are very important. The two teams need to have opposite outcomes, or a tie between the two is not possible. Given that, here's what to look for tomorrow:

  • Arizona does the opposite of the Rockies. Losing to Pittsburgh makes the odds of a five way tie higher, however.
  • Philadelphia defeats Atlanta.
  • New York defeats St. Louis.
  • San Diego defeats Milwaukee.
  • Colorado does the opposite of Arizona. Defeating Los Angeles makes the odds of the five way tie higher, however.

Remember, if the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Colorado Rockies are an even number of games back going into their three game series, there can't be a tie. Given that the DBacks play at 12:30 EDT (bring those radios to school), we'll know what Colorado needs about six hours before they play the Dodgers.

Correction: Fixed the W-L table. Because of the need to be an odd number of games out, the Rockies can't go 4-0 and still get a tie. That's why I shouldn't write at 1 AM. :(


Posted by David Pinto at 12:51 AM | Division Races | TrackBack (0)
Comments

It is impossible for the Diamondbacks to go 2-2 if the Rockies go 4-0 since the Rockies will then have beaten the Diamondbacks 3 times. The massive tie can only happen if the Rockies and Phillies go 3-1, the Padres and Mets 2-2, and the Diamondbacks 1-3.

Posted by: giantsrainman at September 27, 2007 02:45 AM

Giantsrainman is right. The Diamondbacks must lose to the Pirates tomorrow and then lose two of three to the Rockies. The Rockies must win tomorrow (it doesn't seem hard for them anyway). Otherwise, the five-way tie will be over.

It doesn't seem to matter which order the Mets and Padres win and lose their 2 games, and the Phillies go their 3-1.

Posted by: Blastings Thrilledge at September 27, 2007 04:20 AM

BlastingsThrilledge:

The Diamondbacks could beat the Pirates tomorrow if the Rockies lose to the Dodgers and then sweep three from the Diamondbacks.

Posted by: giantsrainman at September 27, 2007 06:18 AM

What happens if there is a five-way tie???

Posted by: chris at September 27, 2007 09:27 AM

"What happens if there is a five-way tie???"

Fun, fun, fun 'till Bud Selig takes the Wild Card away?

:-D

Posted by: mraver at September 27, 2007 09:43 AM

I found the answer

* The Mets and Phillies would play on Monday at PHI for the NL East title.
* Also on Monday, the D-backs, Padres and Rockies would begin the A-B-C scenario, which is a two-game tournament, based on the head-to-head records among the three teams.
* On Tuesday, the winner of A-B would host Club C for the NL West title.
* Then, on Wednesday, you'd begin another A-B-C scenario with the loser of the NL East game and the two losers from the NL West tournament. The first game would be Wednesday and the second game would be Thursday, with Thursday's winner being the Wild Card.

Posted by: CHris at September 27, 2007 09:47 AM

From Baseball Prospectus's Postseason Odds:

"On this morning's run, 1,981,078 teams are tied for the 1,000,000 wild card spots in 677,189 seperate events. That breaks down to
a 32.3% chance of an outright wild card win for somebody, a 44.1% chance of a two-way tie, a 17.5% chance of a three-way tie, a
5.3% chance of a four-way tie, and a 0.8% chance of a five-way tie. The four-and five-way ties would both mean ties for division titles
as well."

Posted by: rocksfan at September 27, 2007 10:51 AM
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