February 04, 2009
Fatal Mistake
Tim Malcolm argues that the Phillies should wait on Chase Utley until his hip is healed. His reasoning is poor, however:
One thing the Phillies have proved is April isn't as important as August in the marathon of baseball.
Tell that to the 1982 Dodgers or the 1984 American League East. Most years, it's okay to go 11-11 in April, but what if another team goes 17-5? That's a big hole for early in the season. Fans should not depend on their team being able to turn on the wins late. Past performance in no indicator of future returns.
All you need to do is look at recent Phillies history to see why this is poor reasoning.
The 2005 Phillies started 10-14 and ended two games back in the East, after having winning months the rest of the way. The 2006 Phillies (started 10-14 and finished three back in the wild card.)
And who could forget 2007? The Phillies won the division by one game after an 11-14 April and an epic collapse by the Mets.
I know there are instances where a bad April doesn't equate to a bad season, but I think this is the exception and not the norm. I thought I remember seeing something (maybe at Baseball Prospectus) where they basically show the team that leads the division at the end of April more times then not wins it in the end. Would make for an interesting study if it hasn't been done.