Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
September 10, 2007
Massive Tie Scenario

Arizona didn't do much to help the massive tie scenario over the weekend as they swept the Cardinals and made the chances of a big pileup less likely. But with three weeks to go, the situation is still fluid, and there is a chance of two massive ties. The Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals are only separated by three games, so there's plenty of chances for a three-way tie in that division. Getting a big NL Wild Card/West tie will take a bit more work. Here's a scenario in which five teams tie for the Wild Card, with a four team tie for the West:

TeamRecord
Rockies16-4
Dodgers15-4
Phillies15-5
Padres13-7
Diamondbacks9-9

This is the best winning percentage scenario, and in order to work, all four Rockies losses come against the Dodgers. It's not the only answer, and the fewer games the Diamondbacks win, the easier this is to pull off. Also, the same holds for a four way tie between the wild card contenders, which at this point should be a bit easier to get.


Posted by David Pinto at 08:31 AM | Division Races | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Whether or not the D-Backs win this year, they look set up for a major fall next year. They just won their 32nd one-run game, the most in the majors.

I remember a funny article in the old Elias Analyst about how this is an eerily sure sign of doom for the following season. The omens are even worse for Arizona because the team's luck has been so extremely good this year - the club is underwater on run diff, by a fair margin.

But, hey, they could win it all this year if they squeak into the postseason. Ask the Cardinals.

Posted by: Casey Abell at September 10, 2007 01:48 PM

Now that I mention Arizona and the curse of one-run wins, I took a peek at the last time the D-Backs led baseball in one-run victories. It was 2003, when Arizona racked up 30 one-run triumphs on their way to a respectable 84-78 finish.

Next year they collapsed to a last place 51-111, 42 games out of first. Not saying it's going to happen again, but...

Posted by: Casey Abell at September 10, 2007 02:03 PM
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