Baseball Musings: Wild Card Problem

September 26, 2008

Wild Card Problem

Since the creation of the Wild Card, the possibility existed for a first place team to game the system to force a certain matchup in the first round of the playoffs. This rears its ugly head this weekend. The Cubs play the Brewers in the final series of the season, Milwaukee tied with the Mets for the NL Wild Card lead. If the Brewers win the WC, Chicago hosts the Los Angeles Dodgers (of Los Angeles) in the first round. If the Brewers finish behind the Mets and Phillies, the Cubs host one of those two teams in the NLDS.

Which would you rather face?

Team	Runs/Game	NL Rank
Cubs	5.35	1
Mets	4.99	2
Phillies	4.90	3
Dodgers	4.35	12

Since the Dodgers acquired Manny, they rank fifth in the NL in runs scored at 4.75, while the Cubs and Mets still rank 1-2. One can also argue that the Dodgers are the hottest team in baseball, going 18-6 since Aug. 30, 2008, the best record in the majors. That, however, was against the NL West and the Pittsburgh Pirates. This was the same team swept by the Phillies and the Nationals prior to the streak starting.

There are good reasons for the Cubs laying down this weekend, including a trip to warm and sunny LA rather than the cold and rainy northeast. Lou Piniella even gave himself some cover last night, starting the second string against the Mets. Even though it's not right, I believe it's in the best interest of the Cubs to help the Brewers into the playoffs, giving the Cubs the weakest first round opponent. We'll see if Lou is thinking the same thing by the lineups he puts on the field this weekend.

(My gut says Lou plays hard against the Brewers. He's too much of a competitor to slack off. Even his scrubs almost beat the Mets Thursday night.)

Update: Balls, Sticks and Stuff is upset Lou didn't play the first string Thursday night.

Posted by David Pinto at 09:05 AM | Division Races | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Plus, losing to the Brewers ensures the Cubs don't have to fly down to Houston and play an extra game.

Posted by: Bob at September 26, 2008 09:36 AM

One win by either the Mets or Brewers, or one loss by the Astros, eliminates the Houston. Forget about the Astros.

The problem with gaming baseball is that so much depends on the starting pitchers. The Cubs almost won last night because Harden held the Mets to only three runs, even though Piniella rested almost all his regulars.

Dempster goes tonight for the Cubs. That gives them a good chance to beat the Brewers regardless of who plays behind him.

Finally, you never know who will get hot in the postseason, which is a crapshoot. Everybody probably preferred to play the thoroughly average Cardinals in the 2006 postseason. How did that work out?

Posted by: Casey Abell at September 26, 2008 09:45 AM

The cubs have earned the right to play whoever they want this weekend.The other teams should have won more games,then it would not matter.

Posted by: fred at September 26, 2008 11:34 AM

three more games and the mets will complete yet another historic collapse

Posted by: sex datng at September 26, 2008 11:48 AM

You people think too much.

Posted by: ubidubi at September 26, 2008 12:02 PM

Yes, I'm irritated with Lou, but, I suppose that if the Phils had things locked up, I'd want Charlie Manuel to rest some people too. But geez, Daryle Ward to pinch hit? Please.

Posted by: Tom G | ballssticksstuff.com at September 26, 2008 12:14 PM

I can slightly understand Phillies fans complaining, but Brewers fans have no call to say anything considering they get the Cubs this weekend. The Cubs are under no obligation to play all their starters or to put in their elite relievers, especially considering the conditions at Shea last night. It's sour grapes to complain. The Mets, Phils, and Brewers have all played like crap at various junctures down the stretch this season, and had they took care of their own business, then they could be resting players like the Cubs instead of bitching about them doing it.

Posted by: crankycon at September 26, 2008 01:28 PM

Tom G. -

While Daryle Ward hasn't been very good this year, he does lead the team in pinch hit plate appearances. Using Ward wasn't the worst call, considering the pitcher on the mound and the options left on the Cubs' bench. The better left-handed hitters the Cubs have were already in the lineup (Edmonds, Fukudome, Fontenot, and Hoffpauir). Lou could have used someone like Lee or Ramirez, but with the way lefties have hammered Joe Smith this year, it's somewhat understandable that he would use Ward there.

Posted by: bmswick at September 26, 2008 01:37 PM