Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
September 02, 2008
Al Central Race
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Twins Vs. White Sox
Photo: Icon SMI

The AL Central is the tightest of the division races, with the Twins and White Sox sporting identical 77-60 records. Here's how the two teams stand in terms of major statistics:
2008 (AL Ranks)TwinsWhite Sox
Runs per Game 5.09 (3rd)5.06 (4th)
OBA.339 (6th).337 (8th)
Slug..411 (9th).456 (2nd)
ERA4.12 (7th)3.92 (5th)
Staters ERA4.22 (8th)4.07 (7th)
Relief ERA3.91 (7th)3.59 (5th)

They are nearly tied in runs per game despite the White Sox appearing to own the better offense. While the Twins put more people on base, the White Sox power is near the top of the league. The Twins made up for the lack of power with timely hitting. They are batting .313 with runners in scoring position versus .282 for Chicago. Minnesota ranks first in the AL in that category while the White Sox rank 4th. Given that I don't believe batting with RISP is really a skill, it seems the White Sox offense is more likely to hold up down the stretch. Also, the Twins are about 0.3 runs per game over what runs created predicts, while the White Sox are spot on.

The Twins starters' ERA for the season doesn't reflect the current reality of the team. Since Livan Hernandez left, Minnesota starters are 15-4 with a 3.18 ERA in 30 games. Because they average just over six innings per start, however, they are putting some pressure on the bullpen. Their ERA over the period is 4.20.

The White Sox look solid right now 1-3 with Danks, Floyd and Vazquez. Buehrle, however, is inconsistent with two great outings and two horrible ones in August. They also haven't found reliable fifth starter, although the job has fallen to Clayton Richard. Right now, the Twins get the nod for the superior pitching.

It strikes me that if the Twins starters can pitch this well for the month of September, the offense scores enough (even falling back to their runs created prediction) that the Twins should win more games than the Sox. The two teams face off in the penultimate series of the season. The White Sox also appear to have the tougher schedule as they play the Angels and the Yankees, while the Twins just get the Rays. It seems to me the Twins should squeak by with a division title here.


Posted by David Pinto at 04:56 PM | Division Races | TrackBack (0)
Comments

they say the twins are like piranhas and they keep coming back. its amazing, regardless of who they have, they are always competitive.

Posted by: Propecia at September 9, 2008 12:30 PM
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