Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
September 23, 2004
NL West/Wild Card

San Diego, out of the race themselves are certainly playing the spoiler well. Jake Peavy's performance last night temporarily puts him in the NL ERA lead. The Dodgers have lost seven of their last 10, five of those to the Padres, and have been outscored 62-42. The Dodgers and Giants will finish the season face to face, six games over two weekends to try to settle the NL West.

This helps the Cubs greatly. If the Cubs keep winning, either the Giants knock the Dodgers out, the Dodgers knock the Giants out, or the two split and the Cubs pass both for the wild card. There is, of course, the big monkey wrench scenario, where the Dodgers, Giants and Cubs all end up with the same record. That requires two days of playoffs; one to determine the NL West champ, with the loser then playing the Cubs for the wild card. I think it's unlikely; the Cubs have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way with 8 of their last 11 against bad teams. If the Cubs go 7-4 the rest of the way, I don't think Houston will catch them, and the Dodgers playing the Giants will in one way or another take care of the competition.

P.S. As I'm not prepared to count Houston out, there is the extreme monkey wrench scenario, where four teams are tied for the division and wild card. That requires three days of playoffs!


Posted by David Pinto at 09:29 AM | Division Races | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Are there no tie breakers decided by won-loss record against the other teams? Of course, if, e.g., the Cubs have a losing record against Houston which has a losing record against SF which has a losing record against the Cubs, then we're all in a pickle.

I wonder if MLB would push back the other series, or just lop off off days? Either way would hurt the NL team in the WS -- unless the AL West ends in a three-way as well (with requisit A better than B better than C better than A.)

Posted by: Robert at September 23, 2004 12:43 PM

The only time that happens is if there is a two way tie for a division, and both teams are ahead of the the nearest wild card competior. Otherwise, it's settled by additional regular season games.

Posted by: David Pinto at September 23, 2004 12:48 PM

Did the rule change? I thought that if two teams finished tied for the division and also tied with a third team for the wildcard, then the two teams played one additional regular season game for the division, which then un-ties both teams with the third team for the wildcard.

Posted by: Barron at September 23, 2004 03:25 PM

david, i wish you were right about my stros. but i watched roy last night and he looked as if something is wrong with his motion - he pitched a poor game for him. roger can't do it alone.....

Posted by: lisa gray at September 23, 2004 08:01 PM

What if Houston, San Fran & Chicago all end with Identical records? What would happen then?

Posted by: Mark at September 27, 2004 03:18 PM