Baseball Musings: Massive Tie Scenario

September 10, 2008

Massive Tie Scenario

Talk about playing hurt. Brandon Phillips singled home the winning run in the 11th inning to defeat the Milwaukee Brewers moments after breaking a finger on a bunt attempt. Phillips season is over, but his hit allowed the Astros and Cardinals to gain on the Brewers in the wild card race. Lance Berkman missed the cycle by a triple and Randy Wolf ran his Houston record to 4-1 as the Astros beat the Pirates 9-3.

The Phillips single also brings back the Massive Tie Scenario. It looked for a while that there wasn't much of a chance for a three-way tie, but now a four-way is looking more likely and a five-way tie is also a possibility. The following records result in a five-way tie with the highest winning percentage among the competitors, each with 95 wins:

Team	Record
Mets	14-4
Brewers	13-4
Phillies	16-1
Cardinals	17-1
Astros	17-0

The only teams who play head-to-head are Milwaukee and Philadelphia, starting Thursday. For the above to happen, the Phillies need to take three out of four, but there's a lot of leeway here. The above five-way tie would result in a one-game playoff for the NL East, then a four team playoff for the wild card.

The six-way tie also lurks in the background. All the Cubs games down the stretch involve teams in the above table. That reduces the number of scenarios available, but this is possible:

Team	Record
Cubs	6-12
Mets	11-7
Brewers	10-7
Phillies	13-4
Cardinals	14-4
Astros	14-3

I have the Astros taking three from the Cubs, the Cardinals five from the Cubs, and the Brewers going 4-2 against Chicago and 1-3 against Philadelphia. The Cubs then sweep four from the Mets. Again, it's not the only possibility for a six-way tie, but it does result in the highest winning percentage, each team winning 92 games.

The six-way tie results in a one-game playoff for the NL East, and a two day playoff for the NL Central title. That would be followed by a two day playoff for the NL Wild Card. It's an extra week of bonus baseball!

It's time for me to start rooting based on the chance of the season ending pileup, here's what I'd like to see today:

The Cardinals defeat the Cubs.
The Brewers defeat the Reds.
The Phillies defeat the Marlins.
The Mets defeat the Nationals.
The Astros defeat the Pirates.

The Cardinals/Cubs outcome is the most important one for the six-way tie scenario.

Posted by David Pinto at 07:05 AM | Division Races | TrackBack (0)

Comments

The Brewers do seem intent on letting the whole league back into the wild card race. But they've still got a three game lead with only a handful of games left.

Those goofball odds on the ESPN page still give Milwaukee a 58.5% chance at the wild card. Sure, the odds bounce around every day, but the Brewers do have two stud starters who should be able to hold off the horde.

Posted by: Casey Abell at September 10, 2008 08:01 AM

No knock on Phillips but breaking a finger like that and keeping playing isn't that big a deal. Right after you break a finger you have a little pain but with the adrenaline you're not going to feel much and you have no stiffness.

Posted by: Bandit at September 10, 2008 08:08 AM

Another Reds storyline involving a failed bunt. When will Dusty learn?

Posted by: Steve H at September 10, 2008 08:30 AM

Not this crap again.

Posted by: Rob at September 10, 2008 02:58 PM

last night was an exciting night of baseball. Houston almost gained a game on everyone but the cardinals pulled it out. GO STROS

Posted by: jason C at September 10, 2008 03:51 PM

Is rooting for a tie incestuous?

Posted by: Scott Segrin at September 10, 2008 08:37 PM

Forget Rob, I enjoy the massive tie stuff. What's hard to get one's brain around is that ties are really hard to accomplish. Take a simple scenario -- two teams, tied going into the last day, not playing each other. Even in that best case, the odds of a tie at the end of the day are only 50%. For all other scenarios (multiple team ties, or multiple games remaining in the season), the odds fall away very quickly.

Posted by: Tor at September 10, 2008 10:12 PM