September 28, 2005
Four Way Tie
The losses by all four of the remaining AL contenders last night put a crimp in the chance of a four-way tie. Right now, Chicago leads all three teams by two games. That means the White Sox have to lose four of their next five games for a chance at the four way playoff to happen. There also has to be an odd number of games separating Cleveland and Chicago, and an odd number of games separating Boston and New York going into the final three-game weekend.
So over the next two days we need:
- Chicago to go 0-2.
- Cleveland to go 1-1.
- One of Boston or New York to go 2-0 while the other goes 1-1.
Then over the weekend the trailing teams each go 2-1.
Or this scenario also works:
- Chicago goes 1-1.
- Cleveland goes 0-2.
- One of Boston or New York to go 2-0 while the other goes 1-1.
Then over the weekend Cleveland sweeps the White Sox while the trailing team in the east takes two out of three. My gut is that neither of these is very likely at this point.
For the three-way division wild card tie, we just need the Yankees and Red Sox separated by one game going into the weekend series. Then a number of combinations end up with Boston, New York and Cleveland involved in a two-day playoff.
If Cleveland and Chicago wind up tied with a better record then New York and Boston (also tied with each other), there's only a playoff between the Yankees and Red Sox, and the wild card is determined by head-to-head record between Chicago and Cleveland, which Chicago wins.
Actually, David, your first scenario doesn't sound all that far-fetched to me. The trickiest part is Chicago going 0-2 against the Tigers. The other pieces are very reasonable.
But, hey, the White Sox just got finished going 0-2 against the Tigers. So who knows?
Of course, a four-way tie is improbable. But with three teams already in a dead tie and the fourth team trying its best to lose its way into that tie...well, we can dream, can't we?
You're making my head hurt.
As others have said, the only winner if there is a tie will be Anaheim
Well, us too (the fans, that is)
David, you may want to check your math. The White Sox magic number for the division is 4. The effective magic number for the wild card is 2 (since either Boston or New York will lose twice this weekend). Your scenario has Cleveland picking up four games on Chicago. They'd win the Central by two games.
I gave this some thought earlier today and I don't think there's any way for a four way tie to occur.
David's scenarios are correct AFAICT. In both scenarios, Chicago goes 1-4 over the remaining games, other teams go 3-2. Chicago is currently 2 games up on the other three teams. Both scenarios would cause Chicago to lose two games on the other three teams.
My bad, I must have read it wrong. Sorry!