August 19, 2007
One Game a Week
The Yankees won this afternoon, the Red Sox lost, and both teams finish the week 4-3. The Yankees fail to gain any ground on Boston, but after a big week previously they could afford to tread water. They need to pick up five games over the next six weeks to take the division.
The next week, however, favors the Red Sox greatly. The Yankees fly across the country to play three with LAnaheim, then fly to Detroit for four more against the Tigers. Meanwhile, the Red Sox go on the road to face the Devil Rays for three, then four against the White Sox. Both teams then fly to New York for a three-game showdown in the Bronx. Given the level of competition, the Red Sox may be able to gain two games on New York before that series.
The Red Sox have got to pick it up if they expect to win the division and keep themselves in the playoff hunt. If they can't win the division, they might not even get the wild card...it's so tight.
I think the winner of the NYY/BOS remaining 6 games will win the division. A tie, and I think Boston takes the division.
But the team that doesn't win the division may very well find themselves out of the playoffs too. Mariners are keep pace with the Yankees (or visa versa considering the M's lead the Wild Card) and seem a bit more solid than the contenders would like.
Boston splits with the Yanks, and that four game lead should hold up. But even a 4-2 loss in the six games with New York puts the Sox in doo-doo. It's not like New York is that much better. The Yankees have the best run diff in baseball, but Boston is second-best.
I think the Sox will hold onto the division. But I thought Romeo would hold onto Juliet, too.
Based on the remaining schedules, I really don't think that Sox will be in that much danger even if they go 2-4 against the Yankees. Also the Mariners are playing way above their heads and also have a really tough schedule remaining. So I think that the 2nd place AL east team will get the wild card.
