Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
August 17, 2003
Mike Vs. Jayson

Mike Carminati continues his role as ESPN.com's harshest critic, this time taking on Jayson Stark's column about the chances of Barry Bonds breaking Aaron's career HR record.

One thing that I find fascinating about the column is the sudden acceptance of seasonal age:


Exactly one man in the history of the sport ever hit 40 home runs at age 39. (And, if we use the universally accepted July 1 age cutoff date, next season would count as Bonds' 39-year-old season, even though he'll play almost 40 percent of it at age 40.) That's Aaron, who did it in 1973.

I don't remember Elias ever accepting this. One of their percieved strengths is their game logs, which allow them to calculate stats by exact age. The problem, of course, is what do you want to do when you're looking for the best season by a 40 year old? You have to decide what a 40 year old is. And seasonal age does that well. It's interesting that Stark seems to imply that if you spend 40% of a season at age 40, you're 40, even though you spent 60% of the season at age 39!

Stark also goes down the path of most HR by old ballplayers, to show how hard it will be for Bonds to break the record:


Then would come Bonds' 40-year-old season. Just one 40-year-old man in history has ever hit 30 homers in a season. That's Darrell Evans, who hit 34 in 1987 for a Tigers team that played in the perfect left-handed hitter's park, Tiger Stadium. We remind you that Bonds plays in the hardest ballpark in baseball for a left-handed hitter (besides himself, that is) to hit a home run.

OK, let's keep going. Most home runs by a 41-year-old: 29, by Ted Williams in 1961. Most by a 42-year-old: 18, by Carlton Fisk, in 1990. Most by a 43-year-old: 18, also by Fisk, in 1991. And after that, it isn't even worth counting anymore.


But he might want to go backward as well:

  • At age 38 (Bonds current age), the HR record is 40 by Darrell Evans. Bonds has 37, which would be third if he didn't hit a HR the rest of the year. It's a good bet he'll have the 38-year-old record by the end of the season.

  • At age 37, the record is held by Henry Aaron, with 47. Bonds is 2nd with 46.

  • At age 36, the record is the all-time record 73 hit by Barry Bonds.

  • At age 35, the record is 65, by Mark McGwire. Bonds hit 49 at age 35, tieing for 2nd place at that age with Babe Ruth.


Bonds is a great aged HR hitter. Now let's be real conservative and say that Bonds hits five more HR the rest of the year. That would give him 655, exactly 100 away from Aaron. Let's also say that he keeps playing, and he misses the age record by 2 each year. That would give him 38, 32 and 27 over the next three seasons, leaving him 3 short of the record.

It really comes down to, will Bonds play, or, will he stay healthy enough to play. I don't remember people thinking Aaron would keep hitting 40 HR a year (well, maybe Selig did when he brought him back to Milwaukee), but I do remember people thinking McGwire was going to break Aaron's record. And McGwire was gone from the scene in a blink of an eye. Bonds has not preserved his body, he's pushed his body to the limit. This has allowed him to become the best hitter ever, but I wonder how long it will last. He's had great training, but he still has nagging injuries and can't play everyday. My guess is that we won't see it coming; Bonds won't slowly fade like Aaron and Ruth did. We'll see lace a ball into the corner for a sure double, scream with excitement as he rounds first, turn our head to see if the outfielder has the ball, then look back to see Barry limping into 2nd base. And like that, the quest will be over. The bill for his glory will have come due.


Posted by David Pinto at 11:04 AM | Predictions | TrackBack (0)