Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
March 28, 2004
AL East

With games starting Tuesday morning in this division, I thought it would be prudent to put up a brief preview. To get a feel for how the teams are stacking up, I drew up this table based on last years win shares and CBSSportsline depth charts.

2003 Win SharesBaltimoreBostonNew YorkTampa BayToronto
Starting 9 148163193111141
Starters and Closer 3282853470
Total 180245278145211
Wins 6082934570

My aim here is to get a feel for how well the core of a team is built. The total win shares and wins (win shares/3) should of course be taken with a large grain of salt. But it's a good starting point to ask such questions as, "What do the non-core players have to do to get the team to a certain point?" It obvious that the DRays need a lot of contributions from the bench just to get to 60 wins. On the other hand, the a healthy Yankees team needs very little from the reserves to have a 100 win season.

You can also see where these totals may be underestimating wins. For example, Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling were both injured last year, and combined for 35 wins shares. If they are both healthy and combine for 50 win shares, that would move the Red Sox much closer to the Yankees. But also remember that the Yankees have a 0 for their fifth starter, whether you insert Osborne or Lieber there. So anything they actually contribute will be a bonus.

In the battle for third place, the Orioles have moved past the Blue Jays offensively, but the Blue Jays have added pitching to improve their defense. After Ponson, the rest of the Orioles rotation combined for 11 win shares last year. With the Orioles now using psychology to select their pitchers this may be an underestimation.

Still, it looks like the AL East will finish in the same order for the 7th straight year. Even with both the Yankees and Red Sox starting a 2 win share player at 2nd base this year, it will be difficult for the Blue Jays and Orioles to catch them. I hope I'm wrong about that, this division could really use a shakeup.


Posted by David Pinto at 11:39 AM | Predictions | TrackBack (0)
Comments

But Lou has already said he won't finish last...who will?

Posted by: Al at March 28, 2004 07:27 PM

Doesn't that just defy belief that the 5 teams have finished in the same order 6 straight years?

I wonder how often any 5 teams have finished in the same order, same slots, for 6 straight years?

Posted by: Mike at March 29, 2004 02:14 PM