October 02, 2007
Pre-Season Predictions
Matthew Swarner writes:
Oh so long ago, you posted some predicted standings that I had collated from sports reporters, bloggers, and other writers around the internet. Here are the results:
The best of the prognosticators: Matthew Carruth of Hardball Times called 18 of 30 teams correctly and missed by only 1 place for 11 other teams. His biggest mistake was picking the Rockies to finish dead last, but he certainly wasn't alone in that error. Other top finishers included Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports, Dan Fox of Baseball Prospectus, Al Yellon of bleedcubbieblue.com, Buster Olney of ESPN, and the automated predictions of BP's PECOTA.
The worst: John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus has the biggest plate of crow to eat. Six teams ended the season three or more spots away from his predicted standings: Arizona, Houston, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Texas, and the Chicago Cubs. However, he still has at least one prediction to boast about. Out of 87 other prognosticators, Perrotto was the only one to pick Colorado to finish among the top 2 in the NL West. Other names in the bottom 10 predictors: Bob Ryan of the Boston Globe, Steve Philips at ESPN, and (gulp) David Pinto of Baseball Musings.
As for the teams, here's what I wrote you on April 2nd:
Anyway, this season looks like it's going to be great. People are really having a hard time picking between Detroit and Cleveland, Mets and Philly, Arizona and San Diego, and St. Louis/Chicago/Milwaukee. But Washington and Kansas City--now that's something nobody argues about.
Most of those races did continue into September, but almost no one saw the Rockies finishing above 4th place and most people were in agreement that the Yankees would take the AL East. Adjusting for number of teams within each division, Colorado was the hardest team to predict, followed by the Los Angeles Dodgers failing expectations and the Seattle Mariners exceeding them. The easiest predictions were a couple last place teams (Kansas City and Pittsburgh), the Angels winning the AL West, and the AL East outside of the top 2 (Toronto, Baltimore and Tampa Bay). The Nationals should receive some credit for surpassing almost everyone's expectations (even if the outcome was only next to last), as should the Diamondbacks, the Cubs, and the above-mentioned Rockies and Mariners. The teams that disappointed the most predictions were the Dodgers, Athletics, Marlins, and Rangers.
Well, I did have the Rockies finishing third, at least, but Arizona last. My advice, don't trust my picks! I hope he does this next year as well. It will be good to see if any experts hold up, or if this whole process is rather random. Also, maybe Matt can post the consensus standings somewhere by doing a Borda count on the predictions.