October 18, 2008
Betting on Chemistry
Tom Tango responds to Joe Sheehan's reaction to game 5 of the ALCS. The game made Joe wonder if chemistry is really out there, and Tom proposes a way to find out.
I hope people who believe in chemistry take Tom up on the offer. It would be cool to get a result, and imagine if they actually show chemistry and momentum exist!
betting on "momentum" games isn't going to prove anything. it's too difficult to quantify what goes into a betting line.
you could attempt to measure momentum within a game, though, by measuring the rate at which runs score. momentum in game 5 alcs seemed to appear after those first 4 runs scored. correcting for pitching/fielding/hitting based on individual season averages, could you show that scoring 2+ runs in one inning makes it more likely to score 2+ in the next 2-3 innings?
