San Francisco Giants

Aaron Rowand
Photo: Icon SMI

The Giants start the season with a seasonal age 23 shortstop who never played above A ball and can't hit a lick. I suppose that's better than starting the season with an almost 41 year old shortstop that can't hit a lick. When you go around the Giants team, you find players who never hit or can't hit any more. Aaron Rowand takes Barry Bonds' place as the best offensive player on the team, but he's coming off a career year and is likely to regress. I would not be at all surprised if this turned out to be the lowest scoring team in the majors in 2008. They don't get on base, they don't hit for power, and I doubt they'll even have much of a batting average.

The pitching staff, unlike the position players, is young and talented. Cain, Correia and Lincecum all posted good numbers in 2007, and on a team with a decent offense they might each win 15 to 20 games. The best they can hope for in 2007 is good luck in close games.

Barry Zito remains a question mark. He turned in the highest ERA of his career as his strikeout rate continued to deteriorate. Barry posted awful numbers this spring as well, although that needs to be taken with a big grain of salt. This may go down as one of the worst pitcher signings, although it will be tough to beat Carl Pavano. What's worse, paying a pitcher a lot of money not to pitch, or to have him pitch badly?

I don't see the Giants competing with the other teams in the NL West. One hundred losses is a real possibility here.

San Diego Padres

Tadahito Iguchi
Photo: Icon SMI

There's a huge dichotomy between the Padres infield and outfield. Gonzalez, Iguchi, Greene and Kouzmanoff are all good players with upside at first, third and short. The outfield represents a huge question mark, however. Giles is old, Headley is young, and Edmonds is injured. Put that infield with two power corners and a good defensive centerfielder, and you have a pretty good team. Maybe some of that will happen. Headley's been sent down to AAA for a month to finish learning to play left. Supposedly Giles is healthy for the first time in a while and his power is coming back. Great seasons by those two would go a long way toward bring this club back to the playoffs.

They may not need that many runs anyway. Jake Peavy, Chris Young are great at the front of the rotation, and the back of the rotation is supported by a fine bullpen. That especially helps Maddux, who still pitches well but can't go deep into games anymore. The wild card is the oft injured Mark Prior. If he can work his way back into form my mid season, he'll provide a pitching boost to the team.

Right now, however, the question marks outweigh the certainty. With the outfield in shambles, it's tough to give the Padres as many wins as they earned last season. Right now, they look like a .500 team to me.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Andruw Jones
Photo: Icon SMI

The Dodgers are a really good team that could be an even better team. They're certainly good enough to win the division, and with Kemp and Loney getting to play every day we should see an improvement in the team. The CBS Sportsline depth chart is now showing Ethier as the number one left fielder. That means only one of the two centerfielders they signed over the last two winters will play. If that's true, Torre is making the right move. Good for Joe.

With all the injuries at third base, the Dodgers are going young there as well as twenty two year old Blake Dewitt gets the assignment. His minor league batting numbers aren't anything great, but he looked like he could field his position against the Red Sox Saturday night. It's a golden opportunity for Blake to show he belongs in the big leagues.

The Dodgers rotation remains solid one through four, but the five spot as filled by Loaiza represents a big hole. If Esteban continues to pitch poorly, there must be some competent starter in the Dodgers organization who is capable of a sub-5.00 ERA.

I see this team with wins in the high 80s. My guess is the play of the youngsters will determine if they win the division or not.

Colorado Rockies

Franklin Morales
Photo: Icon SMI

A good team usually sends out two great players, and surrounds them with a good supporting lineup. The Rockies send out three great players and surround them with two more who are close. Colorado returns five position players with at least twenty win shares. Holliday, Tulowitzki and Helton posted 30, 25, and 24 win shares respectively, while Hawpe and Atkins added 22 and 20. They keep mixing in new players, too, as Nix takes over at second, and an even better second baseman develops in the minors. If Chris Ianetta develops as a hitter this season, the Rockies might score even more runs than last season.

The pitching also looks to improve with youngsters. Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales move into the rotation full time, joining Francis and Cook. It's a mostly young team that's already good with most of their players at their peak. There's no reason they can't contend again in 2008. The fifth starter is a problem as Hirsh remains hurt, but all three contenders in this division face that same problem.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Dan Haren
Photo: Icon SMI

The addition of Dan Haren gives the Diamondbacks depth to a decent 2007 rotation. Webb was great, but there was over a run increase in ERA after the ace. That should change with Haren. On top of that, Randy Johnson looked good this spring, and he'll come off the disabled list soon to take over the third starter slot. That should give the Diamondbacks the top top of the rotation in the division.

Unfortunately, Arizona is going to lose Doug Davis' services due to thyroid cancer surgery. That puts the fifth slot into the hands of Edgar Gonzalez. Despite his high ERA, Gonzalez found his control in 2007, walking 28 in 102 innings. If he can repeat that ratio, he'll be fine.

The offense is a year older, and for most players in the lineup that means a year better. Justin Upton gets a full season to show what he can do. Stephen Drew disappointed in his first full season, but at age 25 he should be hitting his stride. Jackson, Reynolds, Young and Snyder should all be on the upswing of their careers.

This is definitely a better team than won the division in 2007. The front office realized that their record indicated a bit of luck, and fought against standing pat. They'll be a legitimate contender for the title in 2008.

Predictions

Here's how I see the division finishing:

1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Colorado Rockies
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. San Diego Padres
5. San Francisco Giants

The first three teams are very close. Arrange them in any order you like, I just feel Arizona did the most to improve their team over the off season. The first four teams are likely to put the curvature of the earth between them and the Giants. It's good division, especially if you like great pitching.

This is the last day of the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Won't you donate $1?