September 21, 2008
Watching the Predictors
Vegas Watch ranks the pre-season predictions. I'm glad mine were not included. :-)
Update: I did temper my AL East prediction correctly.
The one thing that could change everything is age. While the Yankees and Red Sox are working in youth, they still carry a number of older players. Boston signed Lowell, and the Yankees brought back Posada and Rivera for a few more years, on top of the long term A-Rod contract. While I don't expect any of these players to fade in 2008, the possibility exists that it could happen. What if Drew and Ramirez don't rebound, but find their 2007 declines were real? What if all those years catching catches up to Posada? What if injuries keep accruing to Matsui and Damon?
The Toronto Blue Jays brought in Rolen and Eckstein, but they might be subject to the same ravages of age, along with Zaun. This is where the young Rays have a chance. Almost everyone on the Rays is likely to play better this season. That, and a massive age attack in the other three cities could put Tampa Bay on top. Let's say I don't put a high probability value on the above standings. It's an exciting division where anything can happen.