Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
September 10, 2007
Almost Right

Sometimes I get these things right. From April 17, 2007:

I missed Bill James' Q & A to the class since I got the time wrong, but saw a very nice presentation on the minor leagues by Andy Andres, Tony Massarotti and Ted Trey (owner of the Worcester Tornadoes). Afterward, a few of us were talking with Bill and he asked how many wins the Yankees would earn this year. I thought 90 to 95, but most thought I was over estimating based on the New York pitching. But tonight is a perfect example of my argument. The offense is so good, the pitching staff just needs a 4.50 ERA for a big season. Chase Wright comes up, gives them five innings, and allows three runs. Meanwhile, the offense just bombs Jake Westbrook, chasing him from the game after 1 2/3 innings. That score held up through seven innings so far. This staff just needs to be okay, and my opinion is they're good enough.

Now, that group was made up mostly of Red Sox fans, but still they represented a nice set of intelligent baseball researchers. As of today, if the Yankees can maintain a .566 winning percentage, they'll finish with 92 wins. The team's ERA is 4.51.

Of course, now that I've written this they'll probably go on a losing streak and end up with 89 wins. :-)


Posted by David Pinto at 11:21 AM | Predictions | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Hey! I'm not a Red Sox fan! (And I'm not that intelligent either.) But I do admit that I thought you were off your rocker, not because of the pitching, but because of the offense. I didn't think their offense would be *this* good. They're on pace for an incredible 950+ runs.

Posted by: salb918 at September 10, 2007 12:01 PM

Hey! I'm not a Red Sox fan! (And I'm not that intelligent either.) But I do admit that I thought you were off your rocker, not because of the pitching, but because of the offense. I didn't think their offense would be *this* good. They're on pace for an incredible 950+ runs.

Posted by: salb918 at September 10, 2007 12:03 PM

Sal is a graduate student at MIT.

Posted by: David Pinto at September 10, 2007 12:47 PM

Sal also got a little impatient with the "Post" button, but I have the same problem. Anyhoo, the Yankees' magic number for the wild card is now down to 16. If they go 10-9 over the rest of the season, all they need is a half-dozen losses from the Tigers and Mariners to clinch. Can those teams lose only five or fewer games the entire rest of September?

Anything can happen, but it's looking grim for us Yankee-phobes. What's really depressing is that so far in September New York is fourth in the league in staff ERA. (They're eighth for the season overall.) If their pitching continues to improve to that extent, they look downright unstoppable in the postseason.

Oh well, hope springs eternal, or at least until October.

Posted by: Casey Abell at September 10, 2007 01:16 PM

Computer technology - particularly the "send" button - is apparently not my forte!

All I can say David is...good call!

Posted by: salb918 at September 10, 2007 06:41 PM
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