Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
October 04, 2008
Latest Probabilities

I'm afraid these four series are not going to be very competitive, and the latest odds posted at the Hardball Times confirms my fears. All four trailing teams are below the 1 in 8 chance that an evenly match series would offer.

One of the disappointments of the baseball post season lately is the non-competitive nature of many of the series. In the last four years, only two LDS series went five games, and none since 2005.

LDS, 2004-2007
ResultNumber of SeriesPrediction (evenly matched)
Sweep84
3-166
3-226

So while three division and the wild card are producing more interest in the regular season, that alignment is also producing lopsided playoff results.

Update: Just to be complete, there is a 25% chance of a sweep in an evenly matched five game series. The chances of at least eight sweeps in sixteen series is .027.


Posted by David Pinto at 08:40 AM | Predictions | TrackBack (0)
Comments

How is the divisional and wild card setup "producing" lopsided postseason series? Right now the best team in the NL - by record and run diff - is down 0-2, as is the team with the best record in the AL. Those results would be surprising under any regular season setup.

Said it before, say it again. The postseason is a crapshoot. Anything can happen, including lopsided series, close series, expected wins, and upset wins. The divisional and wild card setup has nothing to do with the unpredictability of the postseason.

Posted by: Casey Abell at October 4, 2008 01:14 PM

25% chance of a sweep? Isn't 12.5 %?

If each team has a 50% chance of winning each game, then it would be:

1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2=1/8, or 12.5%

Am I missing something?

Posted by: dave at October 4, 2008 04:15 PM

Dave,
What you're missing is that it's a sweep if either team sweeps. You've found the probability of Team One sweeping Team Two; now just add the probability of Team Two sweeping Team One (add them since they are disjoint events).

But I agree with Casey. Nothing to be explained here. Just the way the dice are rolling.

Posted by: James at October 4, 2008 04:34 PM

A crap shoot I don't think so.

Have you looked at the previous pairings using the Season Expected Wins / Losses.

2003 AL
Yankees over Twins 3-1 - Yankees Expected 96 W's. Twins 85 wins.

Red Sox vs A's you had 94 win Sox beating the 94 Win A's 3-2. (two even teams a very competitive Series).

2004 AL
Sox sweep Angels - 96 Win Sox, 91 Win Angels
Yankees beat Twins 3-1 - Yankees 89 Expected Twins 87 Expected.

2005 AL
White sweep Red - 91 White / 90 Red
Angels over Yanks (3-2) 93 for Angels / 90 for Yankees.

2006 AL
Tigers over NYY 3-1 - Tigers 95 / Yankees 95
A's over Twins 3-0 - A's 85 / Twins 93

2007 AL
Sox sweep Angels - Sox 101 / Angels 90
Indians over Yankees 3-1 - Indians 91 / Yankees 97.

Only two teams won the ALDS with fewer Expected wins than their Opponents, the 2006 A's and the 2007 Indians.

Now look at the expecteds this year. Red Sox 95 Angels 88
Rays 91 CWS 89. It seems to me that only the Rays / CWS would be competitive and with the series moving to Chicago its possible.

Posted by: s1c at October 4, 2008 05:24 PM

Tell the 2006 Cardinals or the 2008 Cubs about supposedly "expected" wins...and real wins in the postseason.

Posted by: Casey Abell at October 6, 2008 09:17 AM
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