Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
March 24, 2008
Al East Preview

Could this be the year another team challenges the Yankees and Red Sox for the top spot in the division? The AL East certainly looks like the best division in the AL. New York and Boston send out all-star lineups, very solid one through nine. The pitching on both teams features strengths, weaknesses and question marks. Toronto and Tampa Bay show strengths as well. This could turn out to be a very interesting division.

Baltimore Orioles

Adam Jones

Adam Jones
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The easy prediction in this division puts the Orioles in last place. They project to have the worst offense and worst pitching staff in the AL East. The trades of Erik Bedard and Miguel Tejada leave Orioles fans without a lot to enjoy on the major league level. Jeremy Guthrie, the play of Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts, and the development of Adam Jones may be all they can cling to this summer.

Apart from those players, there's not much upside on this squad. Daniel Cabrera might fool us and find his control. That would make him a good pitcher and give the Orioles a chance to win 40% of the time. Otherwise, there's not much to expect from the older players on the team like Hernandez, Millar, Mora and Huff. Following the minor league system might be more rewarding.

Tampa Bay Rays

Akinori Iwamura

Akinori Iwamura
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I didn't realize until I visited their MLB page today that not only did this team drop the name Devil, they dropped the whole fish motif. The Rays are now Rays of light, and you might say those rays mark the dawning of a new era in Tampa Bay.

Did you know that Kazmir and Shields combined for more win shares in 2007 (33) than Beckett and Matsuzaka (31), Halladay and Burnett (30) or Wang and Pettitte (30)? That's a pretty good 1-2 punch, and they are likely to get better. Kazmir starts the season on the disabled list, but a mid April return shouldn't hurt the team all that much. They add Matt Garza to the rotation which should be a plus. I'm very interested to see what Jason Hammel and Andy Sonnanstine do with a better defense behind them. The addition of Jason Bartlett replaces one of the worst defensive shortstops in the game with one of the best. That alone could make all these pitchers look a lot better.

The big story out of spring training was the demotion of Evan Longoria. In 42 spring at bats, he posted a .407 OBA and a .595 slugging percentage. Seven of his eleven hits went for extra bases. What's sad here is that the Rays are obviously making this move to delay Longoria's free agency clock and possibly his arbitration clock. Will a month without Longoria kill the Rays chances? Probably not, but if they miss the playoffs by a game or two, fans will remember this decision.

Even without Evan on the team early, the Rays show a lot of potential improvement on offense. Navarro, Gomes and Upton are young and have time to grow. A full season of Iwamura should help the team's OBA, as will playing time from Cliff Floyd. I suspect Carlos Pena will drop off a bit, but even a ten percent decline would still result in a great season.

The Rays dropped their Devil may care attitude and are walking toward the light. This may not be their year, but it should be the best year in franchise history.

Toronto Blue Jays

David Eckstein

David Eckstein
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Toronto boasts the most solid pitching staff in the AL East. Granted, that depends on the continued health of Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett, but Toronto also sends out the three through five starters most likely to perform well in the division this season. I like Marcum's and Litsch's walk rates, and McGowan's strikeout rate. These three pitchers are capable of keeping the Blue Jays in every game. With a little run support, they'll be a very good back of the rotation.

That run support needs to come from a healthy Vernon Wells. While the Jays pitching looks to be the best in the division, the Jays offense isn't that far ahead of Baltimore. Even with a boost from Eckstein replacing McDonald at short and a healthy Wells and Overbay, this isn't a great hitting team. Rolen, Thomas, Stairs and Zaun are more likely to decline than improve. The pitching will need every run they can save to help this team win.

Boston Red Sox


Clay Buchholz

Clay Buchholz
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When the Red Sox signed Bartolo Colon, I became aware that the Red Sox are skating on thin ice when it comes to their starting rotation. In 2007, the Red Sox supplemented their starting staff with great performances by Gabbard, Lester and Buchholz. Kason is now in Texas, while Jon and Clay moved into the rotation. With Schilling injured, the sixth pitcher becomes Julian Tavarez. It could turn out that Lester and Buchholz are great, but they are still young and inexperienced. They could easily run into rough spots.

Of course, Matsuzaka now has a year of major league experience under his belt. He's had a chance to learn the hitters and make adjustments, so he may be ready to emerge as a Cy Young candidate himself. It's a good rotation with a lot of upside potential, but they don't have much room for error.

The offense looks great once again. I wouldn't be surprised if Lowell fell off after the great season he posted in 2007, but Manny Ramirez seems to have rededicated himself to the game. He put himself through a tough workout regimen in the off season, and he's hoping the Red Sox will pick up his options the next two seasons. Moving his win shares from 15 to the high 20s will certainly help with that. In addition, Drew and Lugo are due for a rebound, and Ellsbury should improve the offensive side of centerfield. Scoring runs won't be a problem for this team.

With B.J. Ryan still questionable, the Red Sox also boast the best end of the game pitching in Okajima and Papelbon. It's a seven inning game when Boston has the lead.

New York Yankees

Phil Hughes

Phil Hughes
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The Yankees offense still blows away the rest of the field. Even if you factor in likely declines off 2007 numbers by A-Rod and Posada, they're still and incredibly strong team, and those declines could easily be countered by a full season from a healthy Jason Giambi. The rest of the offense produced numbers that should be easily repeatable for 2008, meaning the Yankees are likely to lead the league in runs scored.

The question marks for the Yankees are in the starting rotation. Pettitte and Wang are solid, but behind them is an old Mike Mussina and two youngsters, Hughes and Kennedy. This rotation is actually very similar to Boston. Two good, dependable starters up front, and old guy in the middle and two inexperienced pitchers at the back end. Boston has the advantage between the old men as Wakefield is probably better than Mussina at this point, and that gives Boston a slight advantage there.

With Joba Chamberlain moving to the bullpen, the Yankees also can shorten games. I'd like to see Chamberlain perform over a longer period and Rivera bounce back from last year before I put them on a par with Okajima and Papelbon, however.

Predictions

Here's how I see the division ending in 2008:

  1. New York Yankees
  2. Boston Red Sox
  3. Toronto Blue Jays
  4. Tampa Bay Rays
  5. Baltimore Orioles

The Yankees get the nod on their superior offense. The edge the Red Sox have in pitching isn't enough to make up the difference. You can flip the Jays and Rays and get just as good a prediction.

The one thing that could change everything is age. While the Yankees and Red Sox are working in youth, they still carry a number of older players. Boston signed Lowell, and the Yankees brought back Posada and Rivera for a few more years, on top of the long term A-Rod contract. While I don't expect any of these players to fade in 2008, the possibility exists that it could happen. What if Drew and Ramirez don't rebound, but find their 2007 declines were real? What if all those years catching catches up to Posada? What if injuries keep accruing to Matsui and Damon?

The Toronto Blue Jays brought in Rolen and Eckstein, but they might be subject to the same ravages of age, along with Zaun. This is where the young Rays have a chance. Almost everyone on the Rays is likely to play better this season. That, and a massive age attack in the other three cities could put Tampa Bay on top. Let's say I don't put a high probability value on the above standings. It's an exciting division where anything can happen.

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Posted by David Pinto at 08:18 PM | Predictions | TrackBack (0)
Comments

From April 15 to April 27th of last year, Rivera had three games in which he gave up 9 ER in 1 2/3 IP. His ERA last year was 3.15. Take away those three outings, and it was 2.07 for the rest of his outings.

Sorry Dave, but I don't think too much of a "Bounce Back" is necessary.

Of course two of those games were against his nemesis, Boston, and the other was a two-out, 3-run HR by Scutaro which was just fair down the line.

Posted by: Mike S. at March 25, 2008 08:35 AM
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