Heres' the predicted standings for the NL Central:

1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Houston Astros
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Cincinnati Reds

However, if Roger Clemens comes back and pitches for the Astros, that is likely to swing the division to Houston and put the Cardinals into second place.

The Pirates are a team with a lot of arrows pointing up. They have a legitimate MVP candidate in Jayson Bay. They have a potentially second great player in Oliver Perez. Perez needs to control his walks as he did in 2004. He looked very good in his last start vs. the Red Sox, so there's hope.

Now, can the Pirates surround those two with enough good players to compete? On offense, I'd say no. The level of talent among the Pirates position players isn't close to the Reds, Brewers, Astros or Cardinals. For example, they picked up Sean Casey over the winter. Casey makes them better, but he pales in comparison to Pujols, Derrek Lee, Dunn, Berkman and probably Fielder. Putting Casey at first in that division is like bringing a knife to a gun fight.

Where the Pirates can show a huge improvement, however, is in their starting rotation. Perez contributed nothing last year. Duke and Maholm were great in their short stays in the majors. I worry about Duke's low strikeout totals, but he's gotten by with them so far. Ian Snell is a major league unknown, but posted excellent minor league numbers. It's not that much of a stretch to believe this could turn into one of the best staffs in the division. If that happens, it's going to be a fun summer in Pittsburgh.

The good news for the Cincinnati Reds in 2005 is that they led the league in runs scored. The bad news is they also led the league in runs allowed. In fact, they gave up 69 more runs than they allowed. The optimistic view of those numbers is that the pitching doesn't need to be great to have a winning season. At that run scoring level, the staff can allow 4.6 runs per game and still come close to 90 wins. But that means cutting 150 runs on the defensive side of the ledger, and I don't see where that's coming from. Arroyo will help. In fact, Paul Wilson was so bad last year that Arroyo might add four wins to the Reds as the replacement.

Not all of those runs need to come from the pitching. The Reds defense was miserable in 2005. That only magnified the tendency of the staff to allow home runs. Unless Milton can find a way to keep the ball in the park, there's no a lot of room for improvement with that staff.

It's the Cubs turn to win the World Series, but they're starting off on the wrong foot. "Prior and Wood On DL" is not the headline you want to see a week before the season starts. The Cubs should have the best rotation in the division, but they can't keep two of their three star pitchers healthy. So once again, the burden of carrying the staff falls on the able shoulders of Carlos Zambrano. Unless Prior and Wood get healthy quickly, I don't see an improvement in the starters.

The Cubs did do a good job of blostering the bullpen over the winter, although many thought they spent too much. Given the amount of innings you can expect from the relievers this year, they may not be getting enough.

The one point where the Cubs look better is the outfield. They've revamped all three positions. And while Pierre and Jones are solid, Matt Murton might be something special. Lee, Ramirez and Murton look to give the Cubs an impressive murder's row in the middle of the order. The question is will anyone else be on base.

And don't expect Derrek Lee to post another season like 2005. It's an outlier in relation to his career. Don't be surprised to see Derrek return to his career averages, which will still be very good.

I just don't see many points of possible improvements for the Cubs in 2006. They're middle of the pack at best.

The Brewers, on the other hand, have lots of points where they can greatly improve. Lee, Clark and Jenkins formed the best outfield in the division in 2005, and with Fielder, Weeks and Hardy getting full playing time, the infield has the potential to be very good as well.

In the rotation, Sheets is starting the year on the DL, but it's expected to be a short trip. A healthy Sheets gives the Brewers a Cy Young candidate. A full year of Ohka and a maturing David Bush give the Brewers depth 1 through 5 in their starters. They have a ways to go to catch Houston and St. Louis, but you can imagine a scenario where most of the expected improvements brings them close to 90 wins. At that point, they're in the race.

The Houston starting eight is the only NL Central lineup with all eight players over 10 win shares in 2005. Taveras brings up the rear at 13. They're also the only staff bring back two pitchers with over 20 win shares last year. Their problem is the back of the rotation. After Oswalt and Pettitte, they Astros are going to need to score every run possible to get the game to Lidge. Unless, of course, Clemens returns.

The Cardinals aren't as balanced as the Astros, but their offense may be just as good. They concentrated a lot of their wins in Pujols, Eckstein and Edmonds last year. A healthy Scott Rolen should help. But, the Cardinals got good years from marginal players in 2005. I don't expect Eckstein to be that good again. I don't expect Miles, Bigbie and Encarnacion to match Grudzielanek, Sanders and Walker. I expect the Cardinals offense to come back to the pack a bit in 2006.

The rotation is fine. Sidney Ponson, won the fifth spot in the rotation, and if he falters there are other candidates to step in. But anchored by Carpenter, they're top four starters remain very solid.

The Astros and Cardinals are very closed. The Astros have the balanced offense, the Cardinals the balanced rotation. If Clemens pitches four months in Houston, that should throw the division the Houston. The Brewers I see as the wild card. They're the team with the most potential for improvement, and everything going right for them puts them in the division hunt. At the other end of the standings, the Pirates can make up ground with their pitching, but fourth looks like the best they can do. It may be as close a battle for fourth as it is for first in this division.

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