Kansas City Royals

Billy Butler
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I expect an improved team in Kansas City this season. Butler, Teahen and Gordon are a year older and more experienced. Jose Guillen adds some pop to the outfield. Zack Grienke gained control of his demons and pitched very well at the end of 2007, while Brian Bannister may be the most sabermetrically fluent pitcher in the game.

Still, there are a number of negatives. Tony Pena is an offensive black hole at shortstop. The back of the rotation offers very little; they're going to keep the bullpen busy. Mark Grudzielanek keeps getting playing time over Esteban German.

The X-Factor on this team is Trey Hillman. He did wonders for the Nippon Ham Fighters, and I've liked everything I've seen from him in spring training. The talent is there to compete with the Twins and possibly the White Sox. If Hillman can work his magic, and third place finish is a possibility for this squad. The main thing for Royals fans to realize is that this team is moving in the right direction.

Minnesota Twins

Francisco Liriano
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The Twins lost a good outfielder and a great pitcher over the winter. They may end up replacing the pitcher with Francisco Liriano. He's progressed well this spring, although he'll start the season in the minors to build his strength a bit more. They may have replaced the outfielder with Delmon Young. All that does, however, is keep them even with 2007, a season in they finished four games under .500.

The number one starter spot goes to Livan Hernandez. Hernandez is capable of pitching a high number of innings if you don't mind his giving up lots of runs. The Twins may need those innings to save the bullpen, however, as the rest of the rotation is very young, and even when Liriano returns Minnesota is likely to baby him. That will put pressure on a good bullpen. If they get burnt out, this team could go into a free fall.

I don't like the whole left side of the field, however. Lamb, Everett and Monroe just don't generate a lot of wins, leaving a lot of the hope of winning on the backs of Mauer and Morneau. If Mauer stays healthy, he should play better than in 2007, but Morneau slipped from his 2006 MVP year.

The Twins at best should finish about the same at last year, but I could easily see them falling to seventy wins in 2008.

Chicago White Sox

John Danks
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The White Sox are the best of the three also rans in this division. With Dye, Konerko and Thome, the team is still capable of generating offense. The additions of Swisher and Orland Cabrera improves the team up the middle, as the White Sox received little from short and center in 2007. If Carlos Quentin matures into a good hitter this season, the White Sox are going to do well in scoring runs.

Unfortunately, the decided to go with veterans over youth at second and third. I'm not sure how much difference it really makes to the team, but I'd rather gamble on the upside of Fields and Richar than stick with the predictable okayness of Crede and Uribe.

The pitching staff is fine at the top with Buehrle and Vazquez. Only the Indians have a better 1-2 punch in terms of 2007 win shares from those spots in the rotation. But for this team to do well, they'll need Danks and Floyd to develop into first rate starters.

The White Sox did improve the team, and I could easily see them winning 81 games this season. That, however, won't be enough for them to win the division.

Detroit Tigers

Miguel Cabrera
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The Tigers easily boast the best offense in the division. The lowest 2007 win share total for one of their nine batters was 13 by Ivan Rodriguez. Cabrera and Ordonez each generated at least 30, and two other were over 20. When Granderson returns, this is a lineup without holes.

On top of that, the trade for Renteria improves offense at first and defense at shortstop, without losing that much offense at the latter position. Renteria should be be able to make up for some of the range lost on the left side of the infield with Cabrera replacing Inge.

When the Tigers reached the World Series in 2006, everyone marveled at their pitching. The promise of that young staff faded in two years, however. Justin Verlander is rightfully the ace of the staff, but Jeremy Bonderman remains a frustrating player. At times he pitches brilliantly, but mistakes seem to prevent him from becoming truly great. Last year it was his problems in the first inning. Dontrelle Willis hasn't lived up to expectations either. One great season does not make a great pitcher. Now, given the Tigers' offense, they may not need these two to be great to win. If Bonderman and Willis shine, however, the Tigers should take the Central easily.

The one big concern on this team is injuries to the bullpen. With Rodney and Zumaya both on the shelf, teams might be able to score some runs in the seventh and eighth innings. It's another reason Willis and Bonderman need to get off to good starts, so they can go deep in games until the pen is healthy again.

This team should win over 90 games this year.

Cleveland Indians

Asdrubal Cabrera
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Usually when a team fails to win the pennant, they look to fix the weak spots on their team. Cleveland, despite falling to Boston in the ALCS, decided their squad was fine as is and pretty much brings back the same players as in 2007. Asdrubal Cabrera gets to play full time this season. When the Indians place him at second in August they took off, running away with the division after that. Like Detroit, they own two 30 win share players in Martinez and Sizemore, but don't quite have the offensive depth of the Tigers. On the plus side, Travis Hafner should rebound from his below average 2007 season, which could boost the Indians offense a great deal.

While the Indians offense doesn't match Detroit's, no one comes close to Cleveland's starting pitching. Sabathia and Carmona each posted over 20 win shares in 2007. Westbrook and Bryd are decent back of the rotation pitchers, and Cliff Lee will try to show 2007 was a fluke. Cleveland can afford to have those three at the back of the rotation, because Sabathia and Carmona pitch so many innings, and they bullpen is really great. The Indians are one of the few teams I've seen where the middle relievers are better pitchers than the closer. The hurlers getting the game to Borowski all are strikeout artists, meaning the Indians can shorten game to as little as five innings if they can get the lead. I'm usually not big on bullpens. The small sample sizes of the pitchers make them tough to predict from year to year. Cleveland's pen, however, has the talent to make a real difference in the Central.

My main worry with this team is Fausto Carmona. His innings in 2007 went way up from 2006. He threw about 100 more innings over that previous season, and that's a warning sign for future injury.

Still, Cleveland remains a great team who should battle Detroit all year for the division title and everyone else in the league for the wild card.

Predictions

Here's my predicted order for the AL Central

1. Cleveland
2. Detroit
3. Chicago
4. Minnesota
5. Kansas City

I go back and forth on Cleveland and Detroit for the division, but right now the bullpens appear to be the deciding factor. It's very close however, maybe 51% Cleveland 49% Detroit. Kansas City and Minnesota should be competitive with each other. At this point, I assume that Liriano will pitch well, but if not, the Royals should finish fourth. I think it will be a good battle for third place with the White Sox, although don't expect any of these teams to be much above .500.