November 18, 2006
Ground and Air Defense
These tables are replacements for the ones found in this post. They use data just for the 2006 season (see explanation here). So let's look at how teams did fielding balls on the ground:
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2006, Team Ground Balls Only (ground balls and bunt grounders). Based on 2006 data only.
Team | InPlay | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | DER | Predicted DER | Difference |
Tigers | 2115 | 1632 | 1582.78 | 0.772 | 0.748 | 0.02327 |
Cardinals | 2204 | 1670 | 1622.68 | 0.758 | 0.736 | 0.02147 |
Astros | 2100 | 1634 | 1595.39 | 0.778 | 0.760 | 0.01839 |
Twins | 2004 | 1483 | 1449.98 | 0.740 | 0.724 | 0.01648 |
Royals | 2083 | 1502 | 1469.91 | 0.721 | 0.706 | 0.01540 |
White Sox | 2059 | 1508 | 1479.83 | 0.732 | 0.719 | 0.01368 |
Dodgers | 2288 | 1671 | 1643.93 | 0.730 | 0.719 | 0.01183 |
Brewers | 1958 | 1437 | 1416.97 | 0.734 | 0.724 | 0.01023 |
Mariners | 2009 | 1492 | 1472.06 | 0.743 | 0.733 | 0.00992 |
Giants | 1972 | 1490 | 1470.98 | 0.756 | 0.746 | 0.00964 |
Padres | 1951 | 1492 | 1477.20 | 0.765 | 0.757 | 0.00759 |
Mets | 2001 | 1519 | 1503.83 | 0.759 | 0.752 | 0.00758 |
Blue Jays | 2123 | 1585 | 1570.90 | 0.747 | 0.740 | 0.00664 |
Rangers | 2206 | 1622 | 1611.37 | 0.735 | 0.730 | 0.00482 |
Yankees | 2046 | 1495 | 1486.00 | 0.731 | 0.726 | 0.00440 |
Angels | 1922 | 1389 | 1380.87 | 0.723 | 0.718 | 0.00423 |
Rockies | 2211 | 1675 | 1665.86 | 0.758 | 0.753 | 0.00413 |
Cubs | 1879 | 1394 | 1386.91 | 0.742 | 0.738 | 0.00377 |
Athletics | 2026 | 1494 | 1487.15 | 0.737 | 0.734 | 0.00338 |
Phillies | 2085 | 1535 | 1528.07 | 0.736 | 0.733 | 0.00332 |
Diamondbacks | 2223 | 1651 | 1644.98 | 0.743 | 0.740 | 0.00271 |
Red Sox | 2062 | 1527 | 1526.09 | 0.741 | 0.740 | 0.00044 |
Braves | 2152 | 1562 | 1572.09 | 0.726 | 0.731 | -0.00469 |
Pirates | 2187 | 1607 | 1620.88 | 0.735 | 0.741 | -0.00635 |
Orioles | 2020 | 1443 | 1459.35 | 0.714 | 0.722 | -0.00809 |
Marlins | 1984 | 1443 | 1459.41 | 0.727 | 0.736 | -0.00827 |
Devil Rays | 2045 | 1428 | 1446.97 | 0.698 | 0.708 | -0.00928 |
Reds | 2036 | 1473 | 1498.94 | 0.723 | 0.736 | -0.01274 |
Indians | 2160 | 1514 | 1555.64 | 0.701 | 0.720 | -0.01928 |
Nationals | 1974 | 1415 | 1458.48 | 0.717 | 0.739 | -0.02202 |
Interesting that the two teams with the best infield defense made it to the World Series. The Royals did a great job of supporting their pitchers, which gives you an idea of just what a poor staff Kansas City sent to the mound. Somewhat shocking is that the Red Sox rank fairly low on this list, turning ground balls into outs as expected.
Here's the data for balls in the air, flys, liners and bunt pop ups.
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2006, Team Air Balls Only (Fly balls, line drives, and bunt pops). Based on 2006 data only.
Team | InPlay | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | DER | Predicted DER | Difference |
Cubs | 2273 | 1509 | 1478.09 | 0.664 | 0.650 | 0.01360 |
Blue Jays | 2203 | 1409 | 1380.54 | 0.640 | 0.627 | 0.01292 |
Yankees | 2426 | 1608 | 1579.28 | 0.663 | 0.651 | 0.01184 |
Braves | 2338 | 1516 | 1488.60 | 0.648 | 0.637 | 0.01172 |
Mets | 2309 | 1509 | 1483.29 | 0.654 | 0.642 | 0.01113 |
Angels | 2379 | 1581 | 1559.46 | 0.665 | 0.656 | 0.00905 |
Indians | 2434 | 1585 | 1566.38 | 0.651 | 0.644 | 0.00765 |
Orioles | 2415 | 1570 | 1552.45 | 0.650 | 0.643 | 0.00727 |
Giants | 2450 | 1608 | 1591.32 | 0.656 | 0.650 | 0.00681 |
Nationals | 2620 | 1758 | 1744.91 | 0.671 | 0.666 | 0.00499 |
Diamondbacks | 2239 | 1398 | 1388.48 | 0.624 | 0.620 | 0.00425 |
Padres | 2435 | 1624 | 1616.00 | 0.667 | 0.664 | 0.00328 |
Brewers | 2342 | 1513 | 1505.78 | 0.646 | 0.643 | 0.00308 |
Phillies | 2353 | 1486 | 1481.20 | 0.632 | 0.629 | 0.00204 |
Mariners | 2422 | 1562 | 1557.41 | 0.645 | 0.643 | 0.00190 |
Cardinals | 2244 | 1426 | 1422.54 | 0.635 | 0.634 | 0.00154 |
White Sox | 2469 | 1630 | 1626.28 | 0.660 | 0.659 | 0.00151 |
Marlins | 2355 | 1528 | 1525.93 | 0.649 | 0.648 | 0.00088 |
Dodgers | 2248 | 1413 | 1413.75 | 0.629 | 0.629 | -0.00033 |
Rangers | 2336 | 1462 | 1464.32 | 0.626 | 0.627 | -0.00099 |
Royals | 2535 | 1618 | 1623.30 | 0.638 | 0.640 | -0.00209 |
Tigers | 2324 | 1480 | 1486.59 | 0.637 | 0.640 | -0.00283 |
Reds | 2491 | 1608 | 1615.54 | 0.646 | 0.649 | -0.00303 |
Red Sox | 2401 | 1501 | 1515.56 | 0.625 | 0.631 | -0.00607 |
Devil Rays | 2500 | 1620 | 1638.24 | 0.648 | 0.655 | -0.00730 |
Twins | 2324 | 1484 | 1502.31 | 0.639 | 0.646 | -0.00788 |
Athletics | 2504 | 1626 | 1646.41 | 0.649 | 0.658 | -0.00815 |
Rockies | 2379 | 1454 | 1474.13 | 0.611 | 0.620 | -0.00846 |
Pirates | 2261 | 1390 | 1413.40 | 0.615 | 0.625 | -0.01035 |
Astros | 2242 | 1405 | 1429.51 | 0.627 | 0.638 | -0.01093 |
Given the Giants age and Barry Bonds' knees, I'm fairly amazed at how high San Francisco ranks on fly balls. It's also clear from the two tables that Yankees pitchers are better off with a ball in the air than on the ground. The Astros are probably the most extreme team on the two lists. They rank third in balls on the ground, dead last in fly balls.
David, I have a question related to the Astros, and perhaps your park adjustment in general. In some of the blogs I have read regarding zone rating, it seems that there is potential distortion of the data related to LF at Minute Maid Park and Fenway Park, mostly caused by the treatment of balls hit off the short LF walls. It is mentioned here: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/dialed_in/discussion/2006_national_league_gold_gloves_as_i_see_it/
and here:
http://lanaheimangelfan.blogspot.com/
Does PMR use the same data as zone rating, and is it therefore susceptible to the same issue? Does your park adjustment account for the short LF wall issue?
Thanks for your good work, by the way. I really like what you do with PMR.
Are these numbers park-adjusted?
This does explain the Indians' season. They started Westbrook and Byrd, two sinkerballers, with the worst infield defense in the league.
I have suggested that the park factors for defenders may be larger than for hitters. Looking at the predicted ground DER in Houston, Kansas City and Tampa suggests that this may not be hyperbole.