Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
November 18, 2006
Ground and Air Defense

These tables are replacements for the ones found in this post. They use data just for the 2006 season (see explanation here). So let's look at how teams did fielding balls on the ground:

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2006, Team Ground Balls Only (ground balls and bunt grounders). Based on 2006 data only.
Team InPlay Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Difference
Tigers 2115 1632 1582.78 0.772 0.748 0.02327
Cardinals 2204 1670 1622.68 0.758 0.736 0.02147
Astros 2100 1634 1595.39 0.778 0.760 0.01839
Twins 2004 1483 1449.98 0.740 0.724 0.01648
Royals 2083 1502 1469.91 0.721 0.706 0.01540
White Sox 2059 1508 1479.83 0.732 0.719 0.01368
Dodgers 2288 1671 1643.93 0.730 0.719 0.01183
Brewers 1958 1437 1416.97 0.734 0.724 0.01023
Mariners 2009 1492 1472.06 0.743 0.733 0.00992
Giants 1972 1490 1470.98 0.756 0.746 0.00964
Padres 1951 1492 1477.20 0.765 0.757 0.00759
Mets 2001 1519 1503.83 0.759 0.752 0.00758
Blue Jays 2123 1585 1570.90 0.747 0.740 0.00664
Rangers 2206 1622 1611.37 0.735 0.730 0.00482
Yankees 2046 1495 1486.00 0.731 0.726 0.00440
Angels 1922 1389 1380.87 0.723 0.718 0.00423
Rockies 2211 1675 1665.86 0.758 0.753 0.00413
Cubs 1879 1394 1386.91 0.742 0.738 0.00377
Athletics 2026 1494 1487.15 0.737 0.734 0.00338
Phillies 2085 1535 1528.07 0.736 0.733 0.00332
Diamondbacks 2223 1651 1644.98 0.743 0.740 0.00271
Red Sox 2062 1527 1526.09 0.741 0.740 0.00044
Braves 2152 1562 1572.09 0.726 0.731 -0.00469
Pirates 2187 1607 1620.88 0.735 0.741 -0.00635
Orioles 2020 1443 1459.35 0.714 0.722 -0.00809
Marlins 1984 1443 1459.41 0.727 0.736 -0.00827
Devil Rays 2045 1428 1446.97 0.698 0.708 -0.00928
Reds 2036 1473 1498.94 0.723 0.736 -0.01274
Indians 2160 1514 1555.64 0.701 0.720 -0.01928
Nationals 1974 1415 1458.48 0.717 0.739 -0.02202

Interesting that the two teams with the best infield defense made it to the World Series. The Royals did a great job of supporting their pitchers, which gives you an idea of just what a poor staff Kansas City sent to the mound. Somewhat shocking is that the Red Sox rank fairly low on this list, turning ground balls into outs as expected.

Here's the data for balls in the air, flys, liners and bunt pop ups.

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2006, Team Air Balls Only (Fly balls, line drives, and bunt pops). Based on 2006 data only.
Team InPlay Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Difference
Cubs 2273 1509 1478.09 0.664 0.650 0.01360
Blue Jays 2203 1409 1380.54 0.640 0.627 0.01292
Yankees 2426 1608 1579.28 0.663 0.651 0.01184
Braves 2338 1516 1488.60 0.648 0.637 0.01172
Mets 2309 1509 1483.29 0.654 0.642 0.01113
Angels 2379 1581 1559.46 0.665 0.656 0.00905
Indians 2434 1585 1566.38 0.651 0.644 0.00765
Orioles 2415 1570 1552.45 0.650 0.643 0.00727
Giants 2450 1608 1591.32 0.656 0.650 0.00681
Nationals 2620 1758 1744.91 0.671 0.666 0.00499
Diamondbacks 2239 1398 1388.48 0.624 0.620 0.00425
Padres 2435 1624 1616.00 0.667 0.664 0.00328
Brewers 2342 1513 1505.78 0.646 0.643 0.00308
Phillies 2353 1486 1481.20 0.632 0.629 0.00204
Mariners 2422 1562 1557.41 0.645 0.643 0.00190
Cardinals 2244 1426 1422.54 0.635 0.634 0.00154
White Sox 2469 1630 1626.28 0.660 0.659 0.00151
Marlins 2355 1528 1525.93 0.649 0.648 0.00088
Dodgers 2248 1413 1413.75 0.629 0.629 -0.00033
Rangers 2336 1462 1464.32 0.626 0.627 -0.00099
Royals 2535 1618 1623.30 0.638 0.640 -0.00209
Tigers 2324 1480 1486.59 0.637 0.640 -0.00283
Reds 2491 1608 1615.54 0.646 0.649 -0.00303
Red Sox 2401 1501 1515.56 0.625 0.631 -0.00607
Devil Rays 2500 1620 1638.24 0.648 0.655 -0.00730
Twins 2324 1484 1502.31 0.639 0.646 -0.00788
Athletics 2504 1626 1646.41 0.649 0.658 -0.00815
Rockies 2379 1454 1474.13 0.611 0.620 -0.00846
Pirates 2261 1390 1413.40 0.615 0.625 -0.01035
Astros 2242 1405 1429.51 0.627 0.638 -0.01093

Given the Giants age and Barry Bonds' knees, I'm fairly amazed at how high San Francisco ranks on fly balls. It's also clear from the two tables that Yankees pitchers are better off with a ball in the air than on the ground. The Astros are probably the most extreme team on the two lists. They rank third in balls on the ground, dead last in fly balls.


Comments

David, I have a question related to the Astros, and perhaps your park adjustment in general. In some of the blogs I have read regarding zone rating, it seems that there is potential distortion of the data related to LF at Minute Maid Park and Fenway Park, mostly caused by the treatment of balls hit off the short LF walls. It is mentioned here: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/dialed_in/discussion/2006_national_league_gold_gloves_as_i_see_it/
and here:
http://lanaheimangelfan.blogspot.com/
Does PMR use the same data as zone rating, and is it therefore susceptible to the same issue? Does your park adjustment account for the short LF wall issue?

Thanks for your good work, by the way. I really like what you do with PMR.

Posted by: CL Johnson at November 18, 2006 04:32 PM

Are these numbers park-adjusted?

Posted by: Trev at November 19, 2006 03:44 PM

Yes they are.

Posted by: David Pinto at November 19, 2006 03:52 PM

This does explain the Indians' season. They started Westbrook and Byrd, two sinkerballers, with the worst infield defense in the league.

Posted by: Joel J. at November 19, 2006 10:23 PM

I have suggested that the park factors for defenders may be larger than for hitters. Looking at the predicted ground DER in Houston, Kansas City and Tampa suggests that this may not be hyperbole.

Posted by: Mike Green at November 21, 2006 04:44 PM
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