February 10, 2009
PECOTA Pessimistic?
Cameron Martin posts the PECOTA standings for 2009. It sure looks like a lousy year is in store for fans. Six teams win 90 games, but three of them are in the AL East. The rest of the American League stinks, including the division winners in the Central and West.
The NL East dominates as well, with no close pennant races and a tie for the wild card. I sure hope the season doesn't play out this way.
However, it's a little early to be looking at projections. There are still a number of team changing free agents on the market. If I'm in charge of one of the teams listed on the edge of a division here, I'm getting on the phone to see who I can land.
Look at Toronto - 81-81 and RS 730, RA 692.
I'm not sure it's wise to project a team to so poorly underperform their pythagorean wins. I wonder why that is... bad bullpen? Beating up on other teams but losing close ones in the AL East?
It surely isn't because of a bad bullpen, Toronto has one of the best in MLB.
"I'm not sure it's wise to project a team to so poorly underperform their pythagorean wins."
Forget just the Jays.
AL/NL East +15.8 wins above pythagorean; everyone else -14.2
Also looking at the AL and NL w/l totals, they appear to be giving the AL +6 wins in interleague, which would be quite a huge fall-off from the previous couple years