Not to be boring, but you can guess how the AL East looks this year:

1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays

The biggest positive for the Devil Rays going into 2006 is their middle infield. Cantu and Lugo combined for 42 win shares in 2005. And even though Lugo is past his peak, the Rays have B.J. Upton waiting in the wings.

Cantu is the typical Rays prospect. His strength in putting up a good batting average is offset by his overall weakness in getting on base. The hope is as these players mature, they do a better job getting on, as Carl Crawford did last year. Rocco Baldelli gets a chance to make that improvement this year as he returns from an injury. The Rays centerfielders were so bad last year that anything from Rocco is bound to be better.

I don't understand why they continue to go with Travis Lee at first. They need to find a hulk with power who can take advantage of that ballpark. It's an easy way to improve the offense of the club. Still I like the fact it's a mostly young club that has room for improvement.

Kamir and McClung are two pitcher who have half the game figured out. They strike out a lot of hitters, but they walk way too many. They need to control that. When McClung came to the majors, his home runs per nine went way up. If he gets that under control, his walks won't hurt as much.

The bullpen is a mess. Shinji Mori's season ended before it got started with an injury. Chad Orvella looks to be the go to guy in the bullpen, and if he can come close to his minor league strikeout and walk numbers, he should be a good one.

The Rays are an up and coming team, but this won't be the year they make a big move. The most interesting thing to watch this year is how the new management team handles the team.

The Orioles played two season last year, one in which they were the best team in the east, another in which they were the worst. They let Sosa and Palmeiro go, but the team is not on a youth movement. They simply moved around players, brought in batters like Millar and Hernandez, and are going to give at bats to people like Jeff Conine. I really don't see the offense getting much better.

However, there's a lot of potential in the starting pitching, Leo Mazzone to develop it. In terms of 2005 win shares, the staff is comparable to the Yankees, but with a much higher upside. Look first pitch strikes on the low outside corner in April. If you see that, you know Leo got through to the staff. But without the pitching improving significantly, I really don't see the Orioles making a move this season.

The Blue Jays were very active in the off-season, spending a heap of money on two pitchers, A.J. Burnett and B.J. Ryan. They also traded defense for offense, landing Troy Glaus for Orland Hudson. Yes, they're improved. Yes, they were unlucky last year, and that has a way of evening things out. I just don't see them winning the division.

The offense just isn't that good. The aggregate of the batters isn't that different than the Devil Rays. What they have is the best pitching in the division, but not that much better than the Red Sox. And the Red Sox are a mile ahead of them offensively. Toronto should be over .500, but they need to play New York and Boston very well and win the close games, unlike 2005. That's the only way they'll be in contention for the title.

The best news for Boston this spring is that Curt Schilling appears to be healthy. A full season of a good Schilling keeps Boston even with Toronto on the mound. And although they appeared to be trading offense for defense this winter, I'm not sure they succeeded. Yes, shortstop is going to stop many more balls than last year, but I'm not convinced that third, second and center are any better. They might even be worse.

The offense with Manny and Ortiz in the middle is very good, but still far behind the Yankees. I'm not sure that the pitching can make up the difference, so my pick of Boston for second.

The Yankees offense looks every bit as good as the 1998 team. Even if all the over 30 players fell off 10% from last year, no other division rival would be close. About the only things that's going to keep New York from leading the league in runs are season ending injuries to A-Rod and Sheffield.

The pitching is another matter. The front end is old, the back end is injured. However, they don't need to be great to win. This team reminds me of the 1992-93 Blue Jays. Take a couple of old pitchers, score 6 or 7 runs a game for them and Morris and Stewart kept you in the game. With the level of offense, they'll survive the pitching.