Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
September 29, 2003
Vs. the Best

There's a stat I like to look at just before playoff time. I compute what the ERA leaders from each league did against each team in the majors. I use 30 pitchers, the top 15 from each league. I calculate their won-lost record vs. each team as well as their ERA. Here's the results from this year:

ERA Leaders vs.       W  L    Pct. GS    IP    ER    ERA
Indians              15  4   0.789 25  160.1   66   3.70
Rangers              30  9   0.769 45  296.1  112   3.40
Tigers               26  8   0.765 42  296.1   77   2.34
White Sox            18  6   0.750 28  193.2   76   3.53
Devil Rays           19  8   0.704 37  262.1   80   2.74
Pirates              14  6   0.700 25  164.1   60   3.29
Mets                 20  9   0.690 37  252.2   70   2.49
Brewers              17  8   0.680 32  215.2   64   2.67
Marlins              16  8   0.667 29  191.1   62   2.92
Royals               14  8   0.636 31  209.0   79   3.40
Athletics            14  8   0.636 31  202.2   76   3.38
Expos                 8  5   0.615 22  143.1   53   3.33
Rockies              11  7   0.611 25  157.2   77   4.40
Phillies             14  9   0.609 29  202.2   66   2.93
Orioles              14  9   0.609 33  217.2   75   3.10
Twins                18 12   0.600 37  257.1   83   2.90
Mariners             14 10   0.583 30  197.2   77   3.51
Padres               17 13   0.567 36  238.0   80   3.03
Reds                 13 10   0.565 32  211.0   67   2.86
Cubs                  9  7   0.563 25  162.2   51   2.82
Diamondbacks         10  8   0.556 24  167.0   52   2.80
Blue Jays            12 10   0.545 26  164.1   79   4.33
Angels               18 16   0.529 44  308.0  106   3.10
Astros               10 10   0.500 25  165.2   64   3.48
Dodgers              10 10   0.500 29  208.0   63   2.73
Yankees              14 14   0.500 34  223.1   93   3.75
Cardinals            10 12   0.455 33  208.1   67   2.89
Giants               11 15   0.423 34  224.0   99   3.98
Red Sox               8 12   0.400 30  196.1  104   4.77
Braves                8 14   0.364 32  204.0   86   3.79

For a team heading into the playoffs, it's good to be at the bottom of the list. The proper way to read the Braves line is, "The best pitchers in the league could only go 8-14 in 32 starts against the Braves, and managed a 3.79 ERA." These numbers are a very positive sign for the Braves and Red Sox. The Cubs have three pitchers in the top 15 in ERA. The A's also have three, but Mulder is injured and will not pitch. And as the Red Sox line indicates, good pitching doesn't always stop good hitting.

This analysis also favors the Giants over the Marlins and the Yankees over the Twins.


Posted by David Pinto at 11:03 AM | League Division Series | TrackBack (0)