March 25, 2003
NL Central
This is my least favorite division. It's like the AL West of the 1980's, one or two good teams and a bunch of others that don't have a clue.
- Chicago Cubs: CBS Sportsline projects Grudzielanek leading off and Gonzalez batting 2nd. My question: who is Sosa supposed to drive in? Grudz had a .301 OBA last year and Sanchez was .306. That trade with the Dodgers will prove costly for the Cubs both in money and in talent. Karros looks like a very expensive part-time player. Pitching looks fine, should be near the top of the league in K's. Look for the Cubs to lose a lot of low scoring games. I think the Cubs will be lucky to finish third.
- Cincinnati Reds: The offense will be very good if Larkin and Boone bring their OBA's back to normal after off years, and Griffey's power can similarly rebound. Larkin worries me the most, since his falloff is likely age related. But this offense could be great 1-6.
The starting pitching is mediocre, and they don't strike out a lot of batters. The defense up the middle is either old (Larkin), out of position (Boone) or never that good (Griffey). That could be a disaster. Expect to see the bullpen early and often.
With luck the Reds will compete in the division. I think third place is a safe bet for them.
- Houston Astros: Biggio. like Larkin, needs to rebound from an off year to be effective at the top of the order. But I don't understand the project of Lugo at the top. Blum has a much better OBA. With the big guns in the middle of the order, why not get as many people on base in front of Bagwell, Berkman and Kent?
The Astros are excellent 1-2 in both the starting rotation and the bullpen, but depth may be a problem. This team has a a lot of great players, but a lack of depth may keep them from the top spot in the division.
- Milwaukee Brewers: I was going to bash the Brewers for picking up Royce Clayton. But you know, the offense isn't bad 1-5. However, they are horrible 6-8. Still concentrating the best players together should generate some runs. Of course, they have no starters. None at all. And when I say none, I mean one, Ben Sheets, who isn't going to win the Cy Young award anytime soon. They are going to be the opposite of the Cubs, losing a lot of high scoring games.
- Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates did a good job of filling in some holes with veterans. Like the Cubs, they have one great players (Giles) but not much offense around him. They'll hit better than last year. Neither the pen nor starters are great. The team will win more games, but not a lot more.
- St. Louis Cardinals: They are the class of the division. However, Drew looks like he won't be a regular the first part of the season after knee surgery. CBS SportsLine projects Renteria to bat third, which I just don't understand. Pujols or Rolen would each be a better choice. Renteria just doesn't have the power to bat third. I'm assuming that the projected lineup is wrong (Renteria batted 2nd today), but this injury could give the Astros an opeing to win the division.
A lot of mediocrity here. Cardinals with pitching, defense and a good offense should win easily. Astros will make a run, with how well they do depending on the rebounds of Biggio and Hildalgo. Cincy takes third based on offense and bullpen, and the Cubs, Pirates and Brewers may generate some excitement but not too many wins. A coin toss for 4th, 5th and 6th.